2012年12月31日 星期一

Jim Willie: The Coming Isolation of the US Dollar

文章說, 美元將會俾人遺棄, 而實金實銀是最終救生艇 ! 

因為文章太長, 所以唔會全貼過來, 須自行去睇 !

www.silverdoctors.com 全文

By Jim WillieGoldenJackass.com

The typical human reaction to any infection, vermin, danger, or toxicity is to stand back, to isolate the agent, to trap it, to prevent its further spread or release, then to remove it in a safe secure way if possible using trained professionals. Eventually decisions must be made on the level of acceptable risk on the removal, like what is willing to be lost or damaged or killed in the process. Risk analysis, cost trade-offs, and minimization decisions must be evaluated and executed. The toxic agent in global trade, global banking, and global bond market is the USDollar. In 2009, the Jackass began making a certain firm point. Those nations that depart from the entire USDollar system early will be the leading nations in the next chapter, with stronger foundations, richer solvency, emerging economies, healthier financial markets, efficient credit engines, growing wealth, stronger political helm activity, and better functioning systems generally. Imagine a contaminated blood system that infects, corrupts, and destroys all interior organs from the spread of the toxin. Those nations that stick with the crumbling USDollar system stubbornly will find a horrible fate with devastating effects, rampant economic damage, broken financial markets, sputtering credit engines, tremendous loss of wealth, wrecked supply lines, poverty spreading like wildfire, ruined political structures, social disorder, isolation from the rest of the world, and a fast ticket to the Third World. That is EXACTLY what is happening in the last several months. A division has begun, as the East has been busily installing the next generation platforms, as related to trade, banking, and commercial integration.


The division between East and West actually accelerated when the extremely ill-advised decision for Iran sanctions was made by an increasingly desperate United States Govt and its handler on the Southern Med. The division continues, matures, and develops with each passing month. It has become a story, as the Eurasia trade zone concept has been born. It has a long way to go, but Asia however has made great strides lately in unifying commerce. The climax event of the Asian trade zone conference held in Vietnam could not have been more important, as they rejected the US-led plan. The Asians partners and players even rejected the United States from the entire Asian trade zone, but did include Australia and New Zealand. The incredibly stupid naive US-led plan, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, attempted to create a trade zone with Asia which would have blocked China. Imagine the incredibly obtuse blockheaded maneuver of trying to have all of Asia not conduct facilitated trade with China, its leading trade partner.Talk about shooting both legs and genital region with a double barreled shotgun! This is the signal flare of US political stupidity that has turned highly destructive for the USEconomy and its people. Such failed leadership and counter-productive initiatives will push the US into the Third World even faster than previously thought possible. The isolation is firming quickly. Most of Asia does not wish for strong trade ties with the United States, most likely since they do not see mutual benefit. They see a ravaging appetite to grab capital.


流動資金增長約 9% (因為唔計用去的錢, 而今年洗咗好多錢, 又去英國又仔女來港, 花去唔少資金)
物業升值約 60% (因為大陸物業拉低咗成個組合)
金加銀實物倉已去到流動資金的 33% (實金無乜加到, 而實銀買多 1.3倍)
股票倉增長是零, 因為今年無買賣股票 !

1. 樓市
2. 股市
3. 白銀
4. 黃金

2012年輸家是 : 日元

回顧 :
二十年前如果把買大陸樓的資金買港物業會賺更多 ! 是否當日決定是錯 ?
不過二十年來租都收返本金, 所以依家樓價是凈賺 !

來年投資策略 :
金銀持倉已差不多啦, 所以買都只會買特別靚的幣, 不過可能又會是錯的決定, 不過不敢冒太大的風險再放多些資金落去 !
股市方面也不再參於, 又是風險問題 !
所以蛇年投資會好保守 !

Public Buying “Monstrous” Amounts Of Physical Gold & Silver


Today 42-year veteran Bill Haynes, President of CMI Gold & Silver, told King World News that the public is now buying “monstrous” amounts of physical gold and silver.  Haynes also discussed what this unprecedented buying means going forward and how it will impact the market.

Here is what Haynes had to say:  “Eric, this was a 3 day week for us because of the holiday schedule.  In that 3 days we did more business than what we have done in any single week in years.  The buying is monstrous in here.  As an example, we had one buyer which completed a transaction for $6.8 million.”

Bill Haynes continues:

“Those type of players are in here making large physical purchases of gold and silver.  Eric, there’s no doubt about it, there’s fear.  There is fear and there is acceptance that the West is in real trouble here.  So, we are seeing unimaginable buying here of both physical gold and silver. 

This is the type of buying you see when you are nearing the end a long period of digestion, and you are about ready to break out on the upside....

“As prices breakout to the upside, gold and silver will be looking at another massive move higher.  Gold and silver investors, if they have cash on the sidelines that’s not the place for it.  It needs to be in this market.

Eric King:  “As you see these type of money flows coming in, what does that tell you about what stage we are in for this bull market?”

Haynes:  “Eric, I’ve been thinking about this ever since we’ve had this huge buying developing here in the past few days.  Actually, the past couple of weeks we’ve had some really big buying.  We may have just broken into stage II of a three phase bull market. 

As you know, Eric, as a student of these markets, phase II is the longest phase in terms of duration.  If I am correct that we just broke into phase II, we are looking at a phase that could run about 15 years.  This is because phase I lasted 11 years and as I said, phase II will be even longer.

I think during stage II gold will consistently hit new highs, but each and every time the establishment and the mainstream media will declare a top and tell people to get out of their gold.  I have one long-term customer that made the mistake of telling his financial firm that he purchased a large amount of physical gold.  This financial firm is a household name that all KWN readers globally would recognize.  Eric, this firm has literally called him every week and instructed him to sell his gold.”

Haynes also added:  “Eric, the people who are buying gold and silver are extremely successful people.  These are people that have accumulated a great deal of wealth from a wide range of industries, and they are now looking to protect their wealth.

In the past, these people have had no reason to look at gold, but now they are saying to themselves, ‘My excess cash needs to be in physical gold and silver.’  Let me say it again, Eric, if somebody has cash that they don’t have plans for in the next two years, it definitely needs to be in gold or silver.

I would point out that the type of buying we are seeing here at our firm is happening across the country.  There is a bit of a run on gold and silver here.”

財崖未決 金價失建倉意慾


英皇金融集團(香港)總裁 黃美斯 


量寬帶動通脹 明年金價偏穩 

 全球寬鬆的貨幣政策將推高通貨膨脹,應有助激發黃金的保值功能,同時黃金實物需求亦將受此影響增 加,進而助漲黃金價格。展望2013年,仍會矚目於中國及印度這兩個黃金實物需求的主要消費國,估計中國方面的強勁實物需求依舊會有增無減,尤其是在金價 目前出現大幅回檔的時候,更是會激發抄底買盤的介入,從而限制金價的下跌空間。故此,經歷2012年第四季度的顯著回吐後,踏入2013的第一季,可期望 金價會先開展一段較為堅穩的走勢。 

 截至上周五(12月28日),金價2012年的波幅僅得約268美元,由年初的高歌猛漲至 1,790美元水平,至年中回落至低位徘徊,5月16日創出年內低位1,527美元水平,踏入第三季,隨著美國第三輪量化寬鬆政策的利好效應,以及季節性 實金需求的支撐,金價重踏升軌,10月5日創出年內高位1,695.69美元。不過,之後金價沒能一舉攻破1,800美元關口,下行壓力加劇,金價在第四 季陸續失陷多個技術支撐,12月20日跌至1,635美元水平的四個月低位,縱然上周稍作喘穩,但僅限於1,660美元附近窄幅徘徊,除了假期因素以外, 美國「財政懸崖」風險亦令投資者失卻建倉意慾。 

 走勢所見,RSI及隨機指數徘徊於超賣水準,雖然預料下跌動力似將減緩,但暫且僅可視為短期喘穩 走勢,未見有跡象出現顯著反彈;況且在年底交易前,或會限制金價走出突破明顯方向。較近阻力預計在1,665美元水平,下一級關鍵見於1,670美元,此 區為250天平均線位置,需攀回此區之上才可作進一步走穩,繼而反彈目標可擴展至1,676及25天平均線1,692美元,進一步將挑戰1,700關口。 另一方面,下方支持位將看至1,641美元。預估本周早段金價波幅處於1,647至1,662美元水平,較大阻力及支持分別看至1,671及1,643美 元。

 倫敦白銀上周走勢陷於窄幅,美國能否避過「財政懸崖」的不確定性,以及假日前後交投清淡,令銀價 處於狹窄區間爭持,徘徊於30美元附近。走勢所見,RSI及隨機指數均已走入嚴重超賣區域,隨著RSI見初步回彈跡象,短線銀價或見反彈傾向。較近阻力預 估為30.50及31.20美元,進一步可看至100天平均線32.36美元。

2012年12月29日 星期六


明年是水蛇年, 蛇開金庫, 所以金價看緩, 宜入貨之年, 要在2014年2月金價才會繼續升。
因為蛇開庫, 所以小心銀行可能會出事。
2013年和2014年港運依然好景, 還是旺地產和飲食業, 但港人和內地人的謾罵升級, 對港運不利。
地產運或有緩和之勢, 但年中有暗湧, 而2014年會又有炒風。
八運網絡世界火旺過盛, 爭吵騷動難免。
2013年通脹高處沒算高, 而利息還是在低位, 所以靠物業收租還是來年的主流。
中國股市可在蛇年上升, 但蛇年可能會有股災(快上快落)。
睇好澳元和加元, 唔睇好美元和日元。

三碧星在東方, 所以日本和美國都不會好過, 事非多多 。
世界經濟依然一潭死水, 歐洲依然沒能恢復, 可能要六年時間才能翻生。

蛇年是盲年, 所以只利生肓, 不利婚嫁。
蛇年驛馬當旺, 所以多人會旅行、轉工或搬屋。
蛇年肖狗和肖猴運勢較佳, 可以攻為主, 而兔、羊、馬、雞、豬以守為攻。
(唔通李居士睇過旺旺的網誌 ?)

Man That First Spotted QE4 Now Says Gold To Break $10,000


Today the man that spotted QE4, before anyone else in the financial world, surprised King World News when he boldly predicted that gold will eventually trade above $10,000 an ounce.  Pento also warned that in the first half of 2013 Israel would attack Iran, sending oil prices skyrocketing to $170 a barrel.

Here is what Michael Pento had to say in this extraordinary interview:  “The charade of independence between a government and their central bank is being shattered throughout the developed world.  Let’s just take a look at Shinzo Abe, and the Bank of Japan.  Abe comes in and he has a 2% target of inflation.  Right now inflation is negative in Japan.”

Michael Pento continues:

“So he (Japanese Prime Minister, Abe) has promised to declare a war on the Japanese middle class.  He has also declared a war on deflation and he is saying he is deliberately attacking the value of the yen and has a specific inflation target of at least 2%.

Now that sounds very familiar to what we have with Mario Draghi, and doing whatever it takes to control the entire bond market of Europe....

“It also sounds very familiar to inflation targets here in the United States with Ben Bernanke.  This is a watershed epiphany (on the part of central bankers).  This has never been seen before in the major economies of the developed world.

When can you point to a time in history when the leaders of the developed world, when the owners of the world’s reserve currency, have all decided that they are going to destroy the value of that currency vs not only other currencies, but against precious metals and hard assets?

We’ve seen it before (at different points in history) in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Hungary, but we’ve never seen it where Europe, Japan, and the United States, have a declaration of war on their currencies.  The average American, Japanese, and European, must vastly increase their holdings in precious metals, and the (gold and silver) equities, starting now.

When asked if the Dow/Gold ratio is headed back to 1/1, Pento responded, “That number is headed down to low single digits, but I think the bulk of that move is not going to come from a collapsing Dow.  You can get to that (1/1) ratio in two ways:  You can collapse the Dow, or you can increase the price of gold.

I think the price of gold comes up much closer to where we are on the Dow Jones Industrial average.  In nominal terms it’s very hard to crush these major averages when you have a central bank printing $85 billion a month.  Just look at any of the monetary aggregates, M2, MZM, M1, they are soaring, Eric. 

Money supply growth rates will continue to expand, and their rate of expansion will grow.  That is going to bring gold much, much higher than anybody is factoring into their predictions right now.”

Eric King:  “So we would see gold above $10,000?”

Pento:  “Absolutely.  I know it sounds ridiculous, but don’t forget that back in the 1930s it was (around) $21 an ounce.  No one would ever have believed that 80 years later we would have gold trading anywhere near $1,900 an ounce, but that’s what happened.

If you look at the rate of destruction of the purchasing power of all of the developed world’s currencies, it’s a slam dunk that gold is going much, much higher than its inflation-adjusted high of around $3,200 an ounce. 

People are realizing this is an unprecedented scenario where all of these countries have been put on the life support of the their central banks to perpetuate the illusion of solvency.  And when you get to that condition, there really is no limit to how high gold can go.

It wouldn’t surprise me if gold eventually goes to $10,000 an ounce or even higher because there is no limit to the productive capacity of central bankers to produce currency.  I think it would be more surprising if gold didn’t go to $10,000 an ounce.  When the US dollar loses its world reserve currency status and the US bond market collapse is in full swing, a $10,000 gold price may prove to be very conservative.”

Eric King:  “What else do you see happening in 2013?”

Pento:  “Israel will finally address the Iran issue.  I think they attack Iran in April or May.  That sends oil prices of WTI (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) to $170 a barrel.  If that’s the case, then you can kiss whatever nascent recovery that we have in this country and around the globe goodbye.”

2012年12月28日 星期五

China is the Short Behind Gold & Silver Manipulation

中國禁住金銀價來收集實貨 ?


The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 2nd of several interviews regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.

Harvey stated that recent evidence seems to validate his long held suspicions that China is behind the big gold & silver shorts, and stated that the nation is draining massive amounts of physical metal East.

Harvey also made the shocking allegation that COMEX is settling allocated delivery & storage requests with paper metal,  and stated that he no longer has any faith whatsoever in the numbers reported in the COMEX gold and silver inventories.  

The Doc asked Harvey if there was an explanation for the absolute hammering the metals have received ever since the QE4 announcement:
The reason for the hammering is the control that the bankers need to get on the circumstances.  This is not just the United States!  You’re seeing Europe, Japan, you’re seeing QE going on globally all at once, so the bankers are nervous as hell!  They have to dampen the paper market of gold, but at the same time they’re probably personally purchasing the physical metal, along with China, Russia, all the Stans, Iraq, Iran- this is taking a huge toll on London.

As you know, London is really a 100 to 1 paper to physical ratio in gold.  The problem is that when you start removing that one physical ounce of gold to China, you start putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the bankers, as they have nothing bot hot air.  This is why you’re seeing all the stories about rehypothecation, repatriation, stealing of allocated gold- they are probably doing that!  

What’s happened is that the end game is being played out, and the bankers certainly don’t want you to win!  And I can tell you that you will know the game is over when you hear Goldman Sachs is on the buy side of gold.   At that point you have a plethora of buyers, no sellers, and the game is over.   
CFTC Commissioner O’Malia asked me in March 2010 whether the COMEX could default.

I told him yes, it will default, it will default when all the gold leaves US shores and lands in China, Russia, and South Korea.  He looked at me and said ‘South Korea?’  And I told him South Korea!  And sure enough, South Korea is purchasing gold to a high degree.  You’re now seeing India, all eastern nations buying physical!  The only nation buying paper is Mexico, and they certainly found out the hard way when they bought 100 tons and found out it was unallocated and they simply got a piece of paper.  I believe they are trying to acquire physical now.
You’re now hearing stories of Germany and Austria, and they’re trying to repatriate their gold back to their homeland.  That’s when you start realizing that the pressure is on London.  The moment London is out you now have the derivative mess.  The derivative mess will be huge.  You’ll probably see a default in London, then a default in the COMEX, and that will do it! 

I personally spoke with Bart Chilton, and he used the following words: They’re wrapping the silver probe up in September and I expect to have a revealing of what goes on probably in October.  It’s now the end of December.   Bart Chilton personally informed me that the investigation on silver manipulation would wrap up in September.   Chilton’s worried because they’ve wrapped it up, and they can’t release the findings, because it would take everything down!

They can’t release the results because it’s the government that’s behind everything!  They’re behind all the trades, and they’re making such a mess of things that they can’t release the results, because no matter what they report they’ll be found guilty of a crime!

When The Doc asked Harvey to explain rumors of tightness in the silver market, when official COMEX inventories are substantially higher than early 2011 when they dipped below 100 million ounces, Harvey responded:
I have no faith whatsoever in the total registered nor the total eligible silver that they record.

I have no faith in the numbers for the simple reason that I see too much of the .000 indicating it’s a paper entry, and it’s really not there.  Remember that this is a physical market.  I want to see physical gold and silver.  When you consistently see .000 in the bar weight, that’s paper silver being inserted into the inventory as an obligation of someone.  The pieces of paper are being parceled out, and settling on accounts (with a bar number) all over the place!  They’re using .000, because it’s easier than having an oddball weight. 

It’s exactly what’s going on in London, there’s no difference!  London is fixed with obligations- that same ounce of gold is obligated to so many others!  That’s what’s going to happen with the COMEX.  That’s why MF Global was confiscated!  JP Morgan owed all it’s gold and maybe some silver as well, so they just took it in London!  That’s why no one should be trading in the COMEX anymore, just go buy physical metal, and be thankful that you got it so cheap! 

Don’t ask what the price is- the most important thing is that it’s physical!  It’s amazing what you will be able to buy with your silver and gold when this game ends.  That’s the big message that I can give you.

I talk to Bart Chilton, and the numbers that they give us seem to be phony.  If it’s a physical market, how can all the inventory movements possibly be .000?  And why when there’s settlements doesn’t the silver change from the registered down to the eligible? Nothing goes down to the dealer!  They have to settle!  Are they settling through the adjustments?  The figures they’re reporting are phony. 

The other thing that’s a huge concern is the numbers that are going through the silver vaults as opposed to gold.  Gold on any given day is quite comatose.  Every day in silver there are huge deposits, withdrawals, and adjustments.   The fact that the movements are massive every single day is evidence that they are short physical metal, and they are scrambling to pay Peter, to pay Paul- down in London, down in China where they’re asking for it. 

I hypothesized years ago that China has behind the main silver short, and it now seems that Turk and a few others believe that is the case.  China originally had 300 million ounces way back in 1949, and they didn’t know what to do with it, so they stored it- Taiwan got China’s 69 tons of gold, but the silver stayed in China for many years until China started to Westernize.

I believe China’s 300 million ounces of silver became the original inventory for the SLV, along with Buffett’s.  We are now seeing all this inventory go, and China is now manipulating the silver market down to pick up silver.  Silver demand is through the roof in China, they are massively importing tremendous amounts of silver.  This accumulation will be really damaging to JP Morgan who is massively short, who no matter what just cannot cover.

Keep an eye on the differential between the Shanghai silver price and the COMEX price.  Unless you have a physical delivery mechanism, you have 2 different markets.  So what you do is take delivery on the COMEX, and ship it by plane to Shanghai.  China could certainly bankrupt the COMEX any time it wishes.  If the American’s attempt to stop the silver exports, expect a swift and fierce reaction by China.  The worst thing is this will bankrupt the COMEX- a single 100 ton order and it’s bankrupt.

The Doc asked whether Shanghai and other Asian exchanges could simply cause the COMEX to fade into irrelevance:
No, it will default, then it will automatically become irrelevantThe Bank of England is the center of the fraud.  You have to look at the Bank of England.  The BOE stores the gold for many nations in Europe.  It’s there as a sub-custodian for the GLD.  If you deposit your gold at the BOE, they can do whatever they want with it.  It’s for deposit.  Of course they give you a lease rate, and they can lease it no matter what!

Germany is now shocked out of their minds!  They had no idea…which is fascinating, because we told them 10 years ago!  They did remove some of their gold in London 10 years ago we recently found out, but everyone else is still keeping it there, and that is why we recently saw the Queen of England.  It was a photo op to show that all the gold is there, but 70% has been leased out, and what you saw is what was left.  Too much has been leased out, creating a derivative nightmare for the BOE, which in turn will knock out the SLV and GLD, which will then knock out our friends at the COMEX, and then we have a financial nightmare.

Regarding his outlook gold and silver outlook for 2013 Harvey stated:
I think you will see a resolution of things by March (metals manipulation), but we have to be very careful as we are going through the fiscal cliff.  As we’ve seen, every time the DOW plummets they hit gold and silver.  They knock out the thermometer, they don’t want to show that things are that bad.  So I would be careful.  I really don’t pay attention to the price.  Just buy physical.  The politicians won’t get their act together regarding the fiscal cliff until the DOW has crashed.  I’m afraid that the economy will be so bad for all of us, it will be what we’re seeing in Spain and Greece.

Those who missed The Doc’s first interview with Harvey Organ can find it here, in which Harvey stated that the end game is being played out, that an Asian group has decided to take on the cartel and drain the physical silver from the COMEX, and that the bullion banking cartel’s suppression of the gold and silver markets is the ultimate treason against Americans, as 350 years of US wealth is being drained East due to the price suppression of gold and silver.

SNAKE Lunar Year 1 Oz Silver Proof Coin 20 Patacas Macau 2013

Country Macau
Year 2013
Face Value 20 Patacas
Metal Silver
Fineness (purity) 999/1000
Weight (g) 31.1 (1 oz)
Diameter (mm) 40.7
Quality Proof
Mintage (pcs) 6.000
Certificate (COA) Yes
Presentation case (box) Yes
Mint The Singapore Mint

澳門1盎司蛇年銀幣, 最特別是大三巴牌坊個面, 好精緻 !
890蚊SCS買, 而最難得 Ivan 返 20枚分分下, 自己得返1枚 !
東洋都要賣1700蚊/1枚 !


昨天同SCS交收, 終於可以取返2013熊貓1盎司銀幣, 而要多謝熱心幣友把版貨拆出來分, 經SCS派發, 所以只須俾 316蚊/1枚, 而粒粒是靚貨 ! 

也要多謝 Ivan 的義務交收 !



剛剛推出是 380蚊1枚, 而東洋賣360蚊(網友早排說) !

今日SPC同民生合作, 以優惠價 320蚊1枚俾SPC客戶購買 : silverpocketclub.blogspot.hk

如果自行上民生買一版30枚, 就 316蚊1枚 !

2012年12月26日 星期三

祝大家聖誕快樂, 新年進步 !

昨天尖東人山人海, 行入海港城搵 lunch 食都要兩個鐘先食到野 !

晚上 Marco Polo 酒店 Buffet :

每人食咗 2oz 銀幣落肚 !

2012年12月22日 星期六

China Playing a Major Role in Global Silver Market


The latest report from the Silver Institute reveals what most participants of the silver market suspected- China has become the largest physical market for silver in the world.
The report indicates total Chinese silver demand has grown to a whopping 170.7 million ounces annually, from just 70 million ounces a decade ago.
Chinese investment demand for silver reached 17 million ounces in 2011, up from 9.8 million ounces in 2009.
As with China’s gold accumulation, it is likely that China’s unofficial hoarding of silver vastly exceeds the publicly admitted 17 million ounces annually.

(Washington, D.C. – December 13, 2012) China’s role in the global silver market has dramatically changed over the past decade. Once a small player in the global market, China today is the world’s leading market for both physical investment and paper trading of silver futures and other similar products, and is the second largest silver fabricator today. Chinese demand for the white metal is expected to achieve further strong growth in the years ahead, according to a report by Thomson Reuters GFMS released today by the Silver Institute.
Total silver demand in China has grown by over 100 million ounces (Moz) in the past ten years, to a record 170.7 Moz. The strength of the Chinese economy, assisted by a boom in the manufacturing sector, along with heavy investment in infrastructure, has boosted domestic demand for silver since the liberalization of the Chinese silver market at the start of 2000.  This has propelled China into becoming the world’s second largest silver fabricator, with its share of global demand standing at 17 percent at the end of 2011.  Overall silver fabrication demand has grown from 67.1 Moz to 159.5 Moz during the period 2002-2011, a rise of 137 percent.
In the same time period, Chinese industrial silver fabrication experienced an almost uninterrupted period of growth, posting an impressive 135 percent increase.  The largest slice of industrial demand has come from the electrical and electronics sector, rising from 17.1 Moz in 2002 to 40 Moz last year.  Key to this development has been a rapid expansion in the country’s semi-conductor sector.  Similar growth across a wide range of applications has also occurred, including a surge in cell phone and computer production to account for 70 percent and 90 percent, respectively, of the global total last year.  Additionally, strong advances have been reported in other personal electronic goods, including tablet computers, notebooks and light emitting diode backlit televisions.
Moreover, the Chinese silver jewelry market has grown an impressive 211 percent from 2002-2011, to 54.4 Moz, as it enjoys greater exposure across the country’s interior.  Further growth is expected in coming years as ongoing urbanization should lead to the expansion of retail jewelry outlets in larger cities.
Chinese silverware fabrication nearly doubled over the last decade, making China  the second largest silverware fabricator globally behind India.
Investment demand from Chinese silver investors has jumped in recent years, making China the world’s biggest market for both physical investment and paper trading of silver futures and other similar contracts.  Of note, during the first full year after the liberalization of the Chinese silver investment market in 2009, net demand for silver bars and coins doubled to 9.8 million ounces (Moz).  In 2011, the figure soared to 17.0 Moz, accounting for 8 percent of global net purchases of silver bars and coins.
On the supply side, Chinese mine production has almost doubled over the last decade, assisted by the base metals mining sector, leading to a sharp rise in silver produced as a by-product.  China’s mine production of silver now accounts for 14 percent of global supply, and it is likely to be recorded as the second largest silver producing country in 2012.
Scrap supply has also risen steadily over the same period, as Chinese industrial fabrication has grown rapidly, lifting supply from this segment to 31.9 Moz last year.
A notable increase in government sales from China was an important feature of the silver market from 1999 to 2003.  Thereafter, sales from Chinese official and quasi-official stocks fell markedly, and the country has been essentially absent from the market since 2006.
“This report underscores China’s growing importance to the global silver market,” stated Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute.  “It is impressive to see the dramatic development in so many sectors of their domestic silver market in the last decade,” he added.
The report gives a historical background of China’s silver industry over the past 30 years.  It examines the deregulation of the Chinese silver market and includes chapters on Chinese silver supply, silver fabrication demand and silver investment, as well as silver imports and exports.
The report is available free of charge and can be downloaded from the Silver Institute’s web site:  http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/ChineseSilverMarket2012.pdf
The Silver Institute is a nonprofit international association that serves as the industry’s voice in increasing public understanding of the many uses and values of silver. Established in 1971, its member companies include leading silver mining houses, refiners, bullion suppliers, manufacturers of silver products and wholesalers of silver investment products.

2012年12月21日 星期五

CBs Buying, Who’s Supplying & Is Paulson Selling ?


On the heels of another smash in the gold and silver markets, today renowned silver market whistleblower Andrew Maguire addressed rumors that Paulson is being forced to sell his gold.  Maguire also spoke with King World News about the amount of tonnage that central banks have been buying over the past few days and who he suspects is actually supplying the gold.  

This is the third in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting the curtain on what is going on behind the scenes in the gold and silver war.

Eric King:  “Andrew, let’s just look at today, and we’re speaking on a Thursday, but what kind of tonnage or offtake are we seeing in these markets right now by the central banks?”

Maguire:  “I can say that over the last few days we’ve seen order sizes of 6 tons, 12 tons, and today I’m still getting reports but it looks like between 20 and 25 tons (of physical gold being purchased by central banks)....

“People might ask, “How is that possible (when) we (the price) declined into the fix?’  It’s possible because, as we described earlier, it’s really due to massive shorting in the over-the-counter markets by (the US) government in defense of the dollar.  The resulting price is the price (where gold can be purchased). 

Where is the gold coming from?  My best opinion on that would be that the Bank for International Settlements (the BIS) is very likely the only source of enough physical leased metal that could be supplied to actually meet these deliveries.  Because these deliveries are not cash settlements on the books of an LBMA bullion bank. 

These are actually physical deliveries that are exiting the LBMA system, (being) re-melted into kilo bars, and they are going to be vaulted outside of the LBMA system (in the East).  So to me it’s a desperation act.”

Eric King:  “The new rumor always being floated by the cartel is every time they are smashing gold, it’s Paulson is selling.  Is Paulson selling here in your opinion?  I know I’m asking you to go out on a limb, but your thoughts?”

Maguire:  “Well, of course that would be the perfect rumor to put out there when the markets are already declining.  Here’s my view on that:  First of all it makes no sense.  Anybody who was that sophisticated wouldn’t be waiting for a thin holiday traded week to be unloading contracts at 2 in the morning or at odd times of day. 

I mean that’s (that selling is) a directional play.  That is not somebody seeking the best price.  In my view it makes no sense (that Paulson is selling).  I’ve done some digging because I was asked to.  All of the contacts I’ve spoken to have no feedback on that at all, and there would be.  You wouldn’t be able to do anything (in terms of selling) that quietly.  He’s a whale.  His kind of footprints would be easy to read.

If he was going to have done that (sold), he would have done it weeks ago.  He certainly wouldn’t wait until the last week before Christmas when most people I know are either in Barbados or at home (away from work).  So definitely no.”

美眾議院突取消「B計劃」投票 道指期貨大跌二百點


2012-12-21 11:37:25


Gold to $1650, Silver Reaches $29 Handle As Week-Long Post QE4 Raid Continues


It’s that time of the morning again for the COMEX open waterfall smash of gold and silver, a daily occurrence in the now week-long post QE4 massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets. 
Gold has been smashed all the way back to Sinclair’s famous $1650, and silver has been smashed to a $29 handle. *Update: 2nd wave of smash sends silver to $29.71, gold to $1641!

While the rumors/excuse among the financial media for the week long smash of the metals are that Paulson’s fund is liquidating his gold position, we find it highly difficult to believe that Paulson would be dumping his positions without regard to price daily on the COMEX open.  Paulson selling/ fiscal cliff fears are merely the cover used by the cartel for one last massive smash of the metals prior to full blown monetization by the Fed.

That said, buyers in size (ie China) continue to step aside and allow the selling to continue, meaning there is now a legitimate chance that the cartel will achieve their ultimate goal in silver, and paint a negative annual return on the charts for the 2nd consecutive year.


唔知買紙的人有乜感想 ?

2012年12月19日 星期三


奧巴馬「財崖」讓步 美企「盈利懸崖」來襲


美國「財政懸崖」迫在眉睫,知情人士透露,為打破談判僵局,總統奧巴馬前日讓步,提出新的預算方案,當中首次 把富人加稅門檻由年收入25萬美元(約194萬港元)提高至40萬美元(約310萬港元)。專家則認為,美企第4季收入大幅下降的「盈利懸 崖」(earnings cliff)將成美國的新威脅,勢衝擊美股,破壞力或超越「財崖」。

 該加稅門檻仍低於共和黨籍眾議院議長博納提出的100萬美元(約775萬港元),但博納辦公室表 示歡迎。其發言人指新方案將為華府帶來1.3萬億美元(約10.1萬億港元)收益,但當局卻只削支9,300億美元(約7.2萬億港元),尚欠「平衡」。 亦有消息指,博奧二人上周會面時,博納立場軟化,接受富人繳交更高稅率,令外界相信雙方於「墮崖」前達成協議的可能轉趨樂觀。 

降支出增長 向醫保國防開刀 


 白宮預計,除了去年商定的1.1萬億美元(約8.5萬億港元)減赤額,新方案將在未來10年減赤近 2.4萬億美元(約18.6萬億港元)。提高增稅門檻意味受影響稅級由2個減至1個,稅收目標由原本10年共1.6萬億美元(約12.4萬億港元),調低 至1.2萬億美元(約9.3萬億港元)。為達目標,新方案將限制稅務優惠,並把房產稅率重設至2009年參數,即樓價超過350萬美元(約2,713萬港 元),要繳稅45%。



2012年將盡,歐債危機、美國「財政懸崖」久未解決,一對「好兄弟」拖累全球經濟。展望2013年,投資者 幾乎肯定歐美央行將主宰市場走勢:美國聯儲局擴大買債規模,歐洲央行蓄勢待發「無限」買入意西國債。兩大央行大開水喉,顯然對短期經濟前景失去信心。歐美 超低債息,與日債十多年來一沉不起如出一轍。市場憂慮,歐美經濟有機會陷入日式長期通縮噩夢,儼如「新冰河時期」。  
■香港文匯報記者 曾憲龍

 超低息環境鼓勵投資者持有股票等較高風險資產,若量化寬鬆政策(QE)成功帶動經濟復甦,企業表 現自然改善。然而,「財崖」障礙未除,營商環境又不理想,企業風生水起恐成泡影。數據顯示,標準普爾500指數企業上季銷售增長僅1.2%,1/4企業業 績比預期差。一旦「財崖」發生,瘋狂加稅削支,或是兩黨談判協議強差人意,經濟隨時雙底衰退,企業首當其衝。 

QE獨力難支 ESM火力成疑 



 經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)預測,歐元區明年經濟可能零增長,失業大軍有增無減,削赤減債難度 更高。歐元區工業萎縮亦是死症,德法這兩個區內經濟火車頭自身難保,財困國使用匯率過高的歐元,嚴重影響出口。歐洲永久穩定機制(ESM)「金主」之一法 國評級被降,拖累ESM同遭降級,惹外界質疑「救火」前景。 





2012年12月18日 星期二

Turk - The Cartel Getting Desperate In The Gold & Silver War


Today James Turk told King World News that the ‘cartel’ which has been manipulating the gold and silver markets is now entering a stage where the situation is becoming more desperate.  This is yet another fascinating chapter in the gold and silver war.  Here is what Turk had to say:  The last few days have given us a good example of how the gold cartel operates, Eric.  It is a classic example of how the big players in the paper market can move the price of physical gold and silver.

James Turk continues:

“On Wednesday, just a few days ago and after the Fed announced its new QE program that is so bullish for the precious metals, silver closed above short-term resistance around $33.20.  Gold rose that day too, but interestingly, did not manage to close above its key short-term resistance level at $1720.  

Nevertheless, as one would expect, these price jumps are a result of a lot of new buying that came into the market in response to the Fed's new program aimed at debasing the dollar by funding the federal government's horrendous operating deficits.... 

“We know there was new buying because open interest on Comex gold rose 1.2% on Wednesday, while Comex silver's open interest rose even more, jumping 1.4%.  These are relatively big increases for just one day.

We also know that the buying was from trend-followers - those traders who studiously follow the price direction of a market and then position themselves accordingly on a breakout like the one that occurred in silver.  Even though gold did not close above $1720, it traded above that level so there was most likely some new buying in anticipation of a break-out.

The question then becomes, who was selling?  It was the group that GATA nicknamed the “gold cartel.” These are the guys that are tearing the heart out of the gold and silver market.  They keep selling until the buying stops, and then sell some more until the power of their selling turns the market lower.

Gold actually started turning on Wednesday, but the shorts let silver climb Wednesday afternoon, no doubt capturing more unsuspecting longs in the plus-$33.50 area.  But the upside momentum quickly changed after the Comex close, which is the least liquid time of the day because trading in the States is ending, it's night in Europe and Asia has not yet opened. 

So few people are in the market and it is an ideal time for the shorts to paint the tape by selling as much as necessary to make the price drop.  This starts triggering stops as Asia opens and selling then accelerates throughout the day.

The result is that the new buyers start to unwind their positions and sell.  But who is buying?  It is the gold cartel covering their shorts that they put on at $1720 and $33.50.  The trend followers bought high and sold low, taking a loss. T he gold cartel sold high, and bought low, making a nice short-term profit.

By Friday, Comex gold's open interest was back to Tuesday's level, and for silver was actually even lower than Tuesday. All the new buyers of paper metal were trashed by the gold cartel.

It is not surprising therefore that systematic traders - those that follow their black-box mathematical models designed to identify trends - are doing so poorly.  You may have noticed that one of the legends in this area, John Henry & Company, closed last month because of poor performance. 

Barron’s report of hedge fund performance shows how poorly these systematic traders are doing, and one of the biggest of them all, Man Group, here in Europe, has been in turmoil because of poor performance.  The gold cartel is killing its feedstock, and in turn, killing the market for paper gold and silver as well.

This explanation of what happened the last few days also illustrates the big picture, Eric.  When gold and silver hit 8-month highs back in October, open interest soared, particularly in silver.  Selling by the gold cartel eventually turned both precious metals lower.  By November, gold dropped over $100 and silver dropped $4. 

But here's the interesting point, Eric, when the price decline stopped in early November, open interest remained relatively high, particularly in silver.  The gold cartel did not manage to cover as many shorts as they would normally expect, which leaves them vulnerable in case they are called on to deliver physical metal.  So this latest take-down over the past few days is just another attempt by them to unwind their short positions at a profit.

The question for KWN readers becomes, how do you fight the gold cartel and central planners?  Two things are important. First, the house is rigged, so don't play the game.  Stay out of the paper market.  Stop using the Comex.  Don't be feedstock for the gold cartel.  The second thing of course is far more important, which is to buy physical metal.  In other words, accumulate physical gold and physical silver; don't trade them.”

Turk also added: “I’ve not lost any of my bullish outlook for the metals, Eric.  Once you understand how the gold cartel operates, accumulating physical gold and silver on these orchestrated price drops is much less nerve-racking.”


只有日元向下沉 !

本來昨天想出去買野, 不過行唔開, 又唔知金熊貓有貨沒 ?
睇來2013年熊貓金銀幣呢次熱爆, 而加入金銀甲的人愈來愈多, 所以見到網上說, 中銀和恒生要求來買實金實銀的人須有佢地銀行戶口 !

2012年12月15日 星期六



Metal      Silver
Fineness (% purity)     99.9
Content (Troy OZ)     0.8
Denomination (LRD)     5
Weight (g)     28.28
Diameter (mm)     38.60
Year of Issue     2009
Country     Liberia
Edge     Redeed
Quality     Proof
Mintage  5,000 
Package type includes     Presentation box
Certificate of Authenticity     YES

少有不是925, 而是999的28.28g(Crown size) 銀幣, 好精緻的圖案, 而有靚木盒和証書附送, 590蚊在 SCS 買

呢些銀幣的好處是証書上無號碼, 唔曬煩 ! 何況本人好洋化, 唔太著重乜野號碼 !

Nigel Farage On The Queen’s Tour of Britain’s Gold Vault

英女皇巡英國銀行金庫是想安定世界民心嗎 ?


Today Nigel Farage made some absolutely fascinating statements to King World News regarding the Queen’s tour of Britain’s gold vault.  Farage, who is Britain’s very popular MEP, also spoke about the future price of gold and warned King World News, “Everything from George Orwell’s 1984 is coming into being.”

Eric King:  “The United States has just announced new monitoring devices that are going to be put on buses so the government can listen in to conversations.  Are you running into that in Europe?”

Farage:  “Yes, we are now talking about having spy-drones, unmanned planes that will go up and down our borders and see where we go and see what we do.  Everything from George Orwell’s 1984 is coming into being. 

In fact there is a city in the United Kingdom, Oxford, where they’ve actually put listening devices into taxis.  I mean it’s just totally extraordinary.  The liberties and essential freedoms are just eroding at such a rapid pace.

All the while we have benign governments so it may not pose that big a threat to us.  But what happens one day if we get a bad government?  I don’t think they will have to suspect that people are against the state because the devices they’ve got for listening in to what we say to each other are becoming so sophisticated.

Not to mention that we have government agencies, and certainly this happens in the States, where you have officials of the state that actually deliberately set out to try to entrap people into doing things that they will be able to arrest people in the future if they wish to, not just based on suspicion, but based on fact because they know what people think and say.”

Eric King:  “Nigel, countries have been looking to repatriate their gold because of concerns their gold has been leased out in some sort of US/Britain Ponzi scheme, where they are using paper leasing tactics and moving the countries gold they are (supposed to be) storing out of those vaults.  We just had the Queen tour the vault and it was fascinating the timing of that because there is this move to repatriate the gold, your thoughts on that?”

Farage: “Yes, that was a very symbolic move wasn’t it, the Queen doing that?  To sort of feel that at least we’ve got some gold in this country.  Yes, I’ve read and thought a lot and there are certainly several American commentators pointing out that there may well be, in terms of gold reserves and their reality, a huge fraud going on.

I don’t know.  But I’m just struck that if you look over the last 10 to 15 years, the clever governments have been buying gold, and the idiots have been selling gold.  And those that buy gold don’t just buy paper, they make sure they’ve physically got the stuff.”

Farage also added:  “Well, for the moment Mario Draghi has told the world that everything is fine in Europe and there isn’t going to be a problem.  For the moment the markets have backed off.  But I don’t change one iota from my main view which is that at some point in the next few years the price of gold will be very substantially higher than it currently is.”

2012年12月12日 星期三


1/10 盎司  16.5毫米

1548蚊1枚, 在金價約 1670時叫SCS幫手去apmex買入, 本來是random year, 任由apmex 分配, 而收到3枚都是2000年靚幣 !

買幣真是不須急, 須等時機和機遇 !

小金幣, 溢價是高過1盎司的, 不過可以用來收藏也是樂事 !
送俾仔女時又唔曬一次過太大手筆 !

2012年12月11日 星期二

Lunar Good Fortune - 2013 Year of the Snake 1oz Silver Proof Two-Coin Set

財富和智慧, 收到呢份禮物的人一定會好開心 !
套幣在PM網11月29日晚十時已無得再訂啦 !


* Year of the Snake Wealth and Wisdom Coloured Designs
* Proof Quality 99.9% Pure Silver
* Extremely Limited Issue – 1,500 Sets
* Tuvalu Legal Tender
* Stunning Illustrated Presentation Packaging

Silver Content (Troy oz) 1
Monetary Denomination (TVD) 1
Fineness (% purity) 99.9
Minimum Gross Weight (g) 31.135
Maximum Diameter (mm) 40.10
Maximum Thickness (mm) 2.60
Designer Tom Vaughan

Perth Mint 突然出咗呢個兩幣套, AUS $ 194.55 限買一人一套, 手快有, 手慢無 !

注意 : Free Shipping on orders over $100 ends tomorrow.

Free Shipping offer has been extended until 17 December 

2012年12月10日 星期一





官金民移 西金東移 






  作為香港黃金業界資深人士,馮志堅早在上世紀80年代就出任香港金銀業貿易場理事長,對香港黃金投資相當熟悉。在他看來,香港有發展黃金交易中心和中轉站 的優勢。香港作為亞太金融中心,又緊鄰內地龐大的市場,黃金投資和實物需求強烈,並且正快速增長。因此香港可能憑借自己優勢,發揮黃金交易、投資和中轉站 等作用,致力成為亞洲區的黃金貿易中轉中心。 


 他告訴記者,僅在今年首8個月,通過香港進口的黃金就高達510噸,是歷來最大的進口量,這巨大的 需求量是通過香港從海外中轉進口的。510噸的黃金按照目前的價格大概是2000億港元,其包括央行黃金儲備和民間對黃金的需求,這對香港是一個非常重要 的流動性,因為中國已成為全球數一數二的黃金市場。 





 「內地法規、監管、中間成本與稅務,都是市場不能壯大發展的主因。例如中國在實物金的交割方面,還 存在著稅務問題,稅制的問題會使得中間成本大增,影響到黃金的流通,形成很多沒必要存在的漏洞。」馮志堅建議,內地監管機構把市場發展出來的一些業態和服 務手段盡量規範,提高透明度,以更好地保障投資者。

2012年12月9日 星期日

While We Increase QE to Infinity, China Wisely Doubles Down on Gold Accumulation



We double down on the most destructive form of financial ineptitude with wild fire printing of FIAT currency, hollowing out our economy while exporting inflation to nearly every country.  China wisely doubles down and  doubles down again Real Money.

After the Western powers, aided by gold stealing allies like Japan, made off with well over 100,000 tons of gold China accumulated over the last 3,000 year, they are not going to let this happen again. 

Their military, ships, nukes and eye to making the South China sea their own pond and defensible space, is not being developed to create forward bases.  It’s to protect themselves and make their country inpenetrable from their former and present foes.  This is a country with a strong memory that reaches over 5,000 years. And they do not appear to suffer from selective memory and collective amnesia, something that we engage in at a wholesale rate.  Those who forget their history forget their legacies and lose their country.

China gold stocks could easily top 10,000 tons. While worth ‘only’ $700 billion or so, this accumulation will soon be sufficient to lay down the Yuan marker as an alternative currency.  If the rest of the Chinese ‘Golden Horde’ allies rally behind the Yuan, we will be faced with our own monetary existential problem.  This is the real USD currency collapse that so many wise minds talk about.  One day the light switch on the dollar will be turned off.  The inflation tsunami will be staggeringly large. All the conversations we’ve had about inflation and the dollar collapse will be spoken in the past tense.

Whatever remaining dollar reserves held in China will be written off, just like the Greek Bonds going through their third haircut in 3 years.  In our case there won’t be the ECB, IMF and EFSF to bail us out.  If there is, we will not like their terms.

2012年12月8日 星期六



【本報訊】通脹高企,全城加聲四起,樓價急升之餘,租金亦狂升。政府差餉物業估價署發表物業報告補篇指出,本港10月私樓住宅租金單月再升1.1%,其 中,以新界約550方呎以下細單位,租金升勢最誇張,該類住宅10月平均呎租20.9元,較9月份單月漲幅達兩成。部份屋苑租金,如天水圍嘉湖山莊、屯門 疊茵庭於一年內,租金升逾30%至40%。記者:湯家明
業界指出,近年樓價持續攀升,未能入市的上車客,不買也要租,遂令細單位租務市場渴市。祥益地產經理蕭家偉表示,嘉湖山莊上月便創出兩房單位新高租金,樂 湖居5座高層F室,576方呎,月租高見9000元,呎租15.6元,同類單位今年初曾以月租6300元租出,一年內租金急升43%。


儘 管政府出招遏樓市,惟受住屋需求刺激,市民「唔買都要租」情況下,住宅租金節節上升。差餉物業估價署最新物業報告補篇數據顯示,全港私樓住宅租金,10月 租金指數149.2點,按月上升1.1%,惟與今年1月報133.2點比較,10個月上升12%。


當中,建築面積約550方呎(實用面積431方呎或40平方米)以下的新界細單位,租金升勢最突出。平均呎租由今年1月17.3元升至10月20.9元, 升幅20.8%,單月升幅已逾兩成,業界懷疑9月份有中港水貨客為避政府驅趕高租北區住宅作水貨集散大本營所致,而實際上9月前租金呈膠着及過了租樓高 峯;550至940方呎中型單位租金,平均呎租由今年1月的16.3元,升至今年7月最高位17元後,回落2.7%至10月份的16.6元。

美 聯營業經理鍾敏章表示,新界北區如上水一帶,一度出現租盤荒。以上水中心為例,高峯期租盤跌至僅2至3個,「幾乎得1條匙睇樓」。由於政府兩年多前已推出 額外印花稅(SSD),擊退炒家,導致買家以用家為主,缺少投資者入市買樓收租,租盤自然較以往少一截,遂令供應緊張,推高租金。

Silver gains favor as an investment asset


Dec. 7, 2012, 8:26 a.m. EST

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver’s more popular and volatile than ever, ready to finish the year with gains more than double those of gold, as the industrial staple wins more favor as an investment asset. 

“The evidence is clear that investment, not industrial demand, is what is driving silver prices higher,” said Mark Thomas, chief investment strategist and author of SilverPriceAdvisor.com. 

Last month, Thomson Reuters GFMS said investment demand will likely be the prime driver of the silver price this year. 

The precious-metals consultancy forecast that implied net investment would jump 82 million ounces to 234 million in 2012 from 2011, even as demand for silver in industrial applications is expected to fall nearly 28 million ounces.

Investment interest also shows in holdings of silver global exchange-traded products, which — at around 600 million ounces as of Nov. 23 — were close to an all-time high, according to ETF Securities. 

“Current investors in silver now have survived a parabolic rise, a subsequent plunge in price and some extremely dramatic wide trading ranges,” said Thomas. That means “current owners of silver are very solid, committed, long-term investors.” 

The iShares Silver Trust has recovered from last year’s 11% drop and then some, tacking on nearly 19% year to date. 

“Many analysts tout silver’s dual role as an industrial metal as an added advantage,” said Brien Lundin, author of the Silver Bullet Strategy, published by Gold Newsletter.

However, “it is silver’s monetary utility that justifies its current valuations, and that is the only basis on which it should be analyzed in the current environment,” he said. 


Even with a backdrop of weak economic growth, silver can benefit from its dual roles. 

“On the industrial side, the demand for silver is not just discretional,” said Julian Phillips, contributor and founder of SilverForecaster.com, meaning that it has uses in applications that are deemed necessary so it’s used even in the event of a recession. If there’s a “downturn or flat economy combined with uncertainty and a decaying monetary world, then investment demand is high,” said Phillips. Silver “wins both ways.”

Following recent declines, silver may be a bargain too. 

“Silver is increasingly seen as an undervalued asset and its strong consolidation levels around $30-$33 are seen as a buying opportunity,” said Paul Mladjenovic, author of Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. “Silver is also getting more acknowledgment as being more scarce and more affordable than gold.” 

On Thursday, silver futures closed at $33.11 an ounce, down over 4% since the end of September, but up around 19% year to date. Gold, on the other hand, has gained nearly 9% for the year so far, following a Thursday close at $1,701.80. 

“A continued weakening of the U.S. dollar or a geopolitical event could certainly propel silver higher, but a further rotation out of equities would also free up additional resources that could be invested into the precious metals market,” said Roy Friedman, executive vice president of business development for precious-metals dealer Dillon Gage Metals. 

That “could help us break out of the current trading range, with prices moving back into the $40s and perhaps higher,” he said. 

And silver, along with gold, benefits from being a monetary asset.
Silver and gold are both “the ultimate currencies,” said Gijsbert Groenewegen, a managing partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management. “They don’t have counter-party risk and can’t be manipulated by the politicians and printed ad infinitum by writing a nominal value on a piece of paper in order to give it value by decree.”

Risks and rewards

Before putting money in silver, investors need to keep a few things in mind. 

“Silver usually climbs about twice as much as the price of gold during uptrends, and declines by about twice as much during downtrends,” said Steven Kaplan, a senior editor at TrueContrarian.com, a site that offers analysis on financial markets, adding that silver has a much smaller total market capitalization. 

“Silver is for investors who are willing to take about twice the amount of risk as gold investors,” he said. 

The white metal is also more ideal for investors who have a long investment time frame. 

It’s a “better fit for investors who are fairly confident they will not need to liquidate the metal in less than a 24-month time period, given silver’s price volatility,” said Anthem Blanchard, chief executive officer of Blanchard Vault, a retail gold and silver dealer, adding that silver is the most volatile of all heavily-traded metals. 

“Funds used to purchase silver are similar to funds placed in a CD in that investors should not expect to access the funds for 2-3 years,” he said. 

If that’s not an option, then the “lack of volatility [in] gold’s versus silver’s price makes gold the safe way to go,” he said.

2012年12月7日 星期五

Richard Russell - God, Gold, The Shanghai Index & The Dollar


With gold, silver and stocks on the move, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, writes about God, Gold, the Shanghai Index and the dollar in a note to subscribers: “Gold is higher in the year 2012 for its 12th year in a row (up 9% this year, so far).  This year investors have fed almost $8 billion into the most popular gold ETF -- GLD.  One advantage for gold is that interest rates are historically low, which makes the carrying cost of gold very low and attractive.

Richard Russell continues:

“In fact, compared with the inflation rate, interest rates are in the negative column, and the Fed promises to keep rates super-low for the next two years or so.

China is the great unknown as far as gold is concerned.  China is on the path to make the yuan a competitive world reserve currency.  I've long felt that China will back its currency with part-gold.  But gold today represents only 2% of China's sovereign resources.  To be a reserve currency, China needs two items: (1) lots of gold, and (2) a mighty military.

Below the important Shanghai index is semi-crashing.

I'll just hang on to my gold, and as the various junk fiat currencies fade into history, gold will shimmer and shine brighter.  In its long 12-year bull market history, gold has provided we "gold-bugs" with plenty of scares, but right now I'm more worried about the Yankee Dollar than I am about gold.  As I write this morning, gold (not GLD) is down only 2.00 to 1693.80.  It was down further earlier, but it may now be trying to base.  We'll see how it closes.  The gold mining stocks have been a constant drag on gold.  Unfortunately, the gold stocks tend to go with the general market.

Do you like to read charts?  Below is the safe-haven US dollar.  I dunno, if it was a stock, I don't think I'd buy it. Look, it just closed below its 50-day moving average.  That should have been support. MACD doesn't look that good, either.  I'd swap the darn paper for gold.

At the tender age of 88, it seems that I have, at last, found God.  This means that I am learning to live in the present -- minus all my worries about the future.  And I can tell you, it's a huge relief to be living without all my worries.

This way of thinking and acting has taken a huge strain off me.  It will probably add ten years to my life.  I no longer worry about a brutal depression that "may" lie just around the corner.  I live in the present, and in the present I am aware and calm and dealing with the here and now.  And right now there is no depression.  If a depression or some other catastrophe arrives, I'll deal with it then.”

2012年12月5日 星期三

With this volatility, is gold still a safe haven?


By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold hasn’t been trading like a safe haven lately, leaving investors to wonder whether it still is one. 

“The volatility that the price of gold has seen lately gives the illusion that it is not a safe haven, but in reality investors still view it as a place to protect their wealth,” said David Beahm, vice president at precious-metals investment firm Blanchard & Co.
That’s tough to believe, however, given the steep drops the precious metal has suffered in recent sessions. 

Gold futures dropped to a one-month low on Tuesday, with the February contract /quotes/zigman/4331913 GCG3 +0.27%  down $25.30, or 1.5%, to settle at $1,695.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Read: Gold slumps to one-month low below $1,700. 
Steep daily drops such as that one were common enough in November to send prices down 0.4% for the month, with a decline of around $40 on Nov. 2 and a fall of almost $26 on Nov. 28 being the standouts. 

Analysts admit the moves in the last few months have been eye-catching. 

Gold jumped $200 to around $1,800 an ounce in October, from about $1,600 in August. 

“That’s a huge move,” said Phil Storer, director of trading at Dillon Gage Inc., a Texas-based company that deals in the futures markets. “It probably overdid itself and now is in the process of finding a comfortable price level again.” 

“All markets do this, but gold is a headline grabber and gets more attention than the rest,” he said, adding that prices have pulled back about 60% since the high in early October, a “normal part of the market’s action.” 

Fundamentally and technically, analysts blame gold’s recent volatility on everything from hedge-fund liquidation, technical price triggers and year-end book squaring to economic, U.S. fiscal cliff and euro-zone developments and inflation and deflation prospects. Through it all and despite the selloffs, however, investor interest in gold hasn’t wavered.

Last month, the U.S. Mint had its best month for American Eagle Gold Coin sales since July 2010, according to BullionVault, the physical gold and silver exchange for private investors online. Separately, ETF Securities said holdings in gold exchange-traded products also set a record in the second half of November at over 83 million ounces. 

The Gold Investor Index, which offers a look at western investor sentiment toward gold by tracking buying and selling on BullionVault, also rose to a six-month high last month. “The gold price may look weak right at this moment but behind the scenes, investors in the West are clearly feeling the need to insure against financial risks in the coming year,” said Ben Traynor, chief economist at BullionVault.

Reasons converge

Given all the roles that gold tends to play, the metal has lots of ups and downs, but many analysts still see a strong year ahead for gold. 

So far this year, gold futures have gained over 8%. 

Blanchard & Co.’s Beahm expects 2013 to be “a great year for gold” due to the uncertainty caused by the U.S. fiscal cliff and the dependence of the U.S. economy on monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. 

Concerns about the fiscal cliff — billions of dollars in spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to go into effect at the start of the year if politicians can’t agree on a budget deal — as well as political wrangling over euro-zone debt have fed volatility in gold and other markets. 

“The risk of a higher capital-gains tax rate as a consequence of fiscal-cliff discussions is resulting in some long-term gold holders booking some of their profits in 2012,” said Vedant Mimani, lead portfolio manager of the Atyant Capital Global Opportunities Fund. 

“It makes a lot of sense to book long-term gains in 2012 — lock in tax liability at the current rate and then re-position in 2013 as desired rather than hold on to long-term gains and risk a higher tax rate,” he said.

Traders and investors are also considering whether the markets are heading for a deflationary or inflationary environment. Most investors likely feel as if “we are heading into a deflationary environment, so holding gold [which is seen as a hedge against inflation] is no good to them,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at GFT Markets. 

And then there are the purely technical, price-triggered trades. 

Adam Grimes, chief investment officer at research and advisory firm Waverly Advisors, said gold’s selloff is mostly due to technical reasons.

“Since the sharp decline off the highs in August of 2011, gold futures have defined a strong support zone in the $1,600 area,” he said. The rally in August of 2012 off of that level was a “clear and obvious bullish signal — to put it simply, you pretty much had to be long.” 

The danger with the obvious technical trade is that “when it fails, everyone will be scrambling for the exits at the same time,” he said, and November “failed to develop the kind of upside momentum that would keep bulls interested and would reassure long players that they are right.”

 Changing backdrop 

Exacerbating the moves in gold is a changing trading backdrop for the metal, one in which many traders have taken advantage of the wide variety of investment options that include derivatives and exchange-traded products. 

“The high percentage of momentum investors in paper gold has created an unprecedented amount of volatility,” said Jeffrey Sica, president and chief investment officer of Sica Wealth Management. 

“Recent declines were caused by liquidations of hedge funds to meet pending redemption requirements,” he explained. “The uncertainty of just how many investors will file for redemption of hedge funds […] is causing some momentum investors to liquidate.”

So, what about gold’s perceived status as a safe haven? 

“The tendency of leverage-oriented investors to liquidate their top-performing sectors in the midst of a stock-market decline makes gold a likely target for momentum sellers needing to meet margin requirements,” according to Sica. 

And “due to the highest percentage of momentum investors and hedge funds who own gold, it can no longer be considered the safe haven it once was,” he said. Even so, gold “can still be considered a ‘safer haven’ with great potential for appreciation in the future,” said Sica.