2012年10月9日 星期二

Greyerz: Global Debt Over $200 Trillion, Gold Demand Surges

歐美跟本無諗住要還錢, 所以會繼續大手印銀紙 !

所以最安全還是繼續持有實金實銀和物業 !


kingworldnews.com

Today Egon von Greyerz spoke with King World News about the, “... most massive Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen.”  He also stated, “... this will clearly end in total disaster.” Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management, also warned about a developing situation which, when it becomes apparent, will create, “... panic in the gold market because nobody will hold paper gold anymore.

Here is what Greyerz had to say:  “US deficits are set to continue to rise, no matter who wins the election.  This means a great deal more money printing.  Right now the US has $40 billion per month of QE in the form of buying mortgage-backed securities, and with ‘Twist’ another $45 billion.  But you have to also add the $145 billion monthly budget deficit.”

Egon von Greyerz continues:  

“Right now the US deficit is running at roughly $1.5 trillion per year.  So in total, the US is already printing $200 billion each month, and that will of course increase.  The US debt is up $10 trillion in ten years.  As revenues decline and expenditures increase, the pressures on the US economy will be enormous, and the deficit will increase substantially.

In a couple of years time, we will have $20 trillion, at least, of US debt....

“$20 trillion of US debt, think about that for a moment.  US tax revenue is now around $2.3 trillion.  If you examine $20 trillion of debt, and factor in a dramatic increase in interest rates in coming years, as money is printed and inflation enters the picture, an interest rate of 12% is very likely. 

Take 12% of  $20 trillion and you get $2.4 trillion per year just in interest.  That figure is more than the current tax revenue of $2.3 trillion.  So the US will reach a point, in the not too distant future, where the total debt servicing will be equal to the total tax revenue.  That is of course unsustainable.

If you look at global debt, in the last ten years it is up from $80 trillion, to $200 trillion.  These are figures which are hard to comprehend.  Global debt has increased $120 trillion in just ten years.  So when you look at the so-called prosperity of the world, it is all based on debt.  So it is all an illusion.

Central bank balance sheets are also exploding.  They have increased 16%, compounded, per annum.  What are the central banks doing?  Just like the Fed, they are buying toxic debt which has zero value.  What are they doing to buy that?  They are printing worthless pieces of paper, they call it ‘money,’ and with that ‘money’ they are buying another worthless piece of paper which they call an ‘asset.’ 

So it is the most massive Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen, and this will clearly end in total disaster.  It will end with the implosion of debt and the implosion of assets.  But before that, we will have hyperinflation.  As governments continue to print, we will have hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation comes from a collapsing currency.  Take Iran, that is a good example.  Iran’s currency is now down 70%, and inflation is now estimated to be running at 50% per month.  This is what we will see all over the Western world in coming years.  I’m absolutely certain about that.”

Greyerz had this to say regarding gold: “So we are holding gold to preserve wealth because gold is the ultimate way of protecting your assets from total destruction as a result of the money printing.  Because the financial system is bankrupt and governments are bankrupt, any asset that you hold within that system is at risk.

This is why you have to have physical gold and you must store it outside of the banking system.  Eric Sprott came out with a superb report detailing the official figures we are seeing regarding production and purchases of gold.  His conclusion, quite correctly, was that they are not telling the truth in those official reports being published.

He (Sprott) is looking at an annual deficit of 2,500 to 2,600 tons of gold.  I have talked about this many times, and Eric puts it superbly in his report, that the 30,000 tons which central banks are holding in gold reserves, with the Western central banks holding about 23,000 tons of that gold, are probably not there.

When that becomes apparent, there will be panic in the gold market because nobody will hold paper gold anymore.  It means that Western governments do not have adequate amounts of gold to back their money.”

Greyerz also added: “I would also note, Eric, that some of the refiners we are talking to, they are seeing business strongly increasing now, and in this environment they are actually increasing their margins and prices.  So there is clearly an increase in short-term demand.  This is why, up to now, the paper shorts in the gold market have been struggling to bring the price down.”

Richard Russell - Gold & China’s Plan To Take Over The World

kingworldnews.com

The Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had a great deal to say about gold, the markets, China’s plan to take over the world, and what lies ahead.  Here is what Russell had to say in his latest report: “Frankly, I can't remember dealing with a weird situation like this before.  Strange, we're waiting for new highs in the Averages, and at the same time we're waiting for gold to break upside into the 1800s.

Richard Russell continues:

“Let's be honest.  What would we do with our gold if it rallied to 1800 -- and then above 2,000?  Actually, I wouldn't do anything with my physical gold, any more than I'd do something with my house if the real estate market got hot and my house was suddenly worth more.

What would I sell my gold for?  Sell it for dollars, for euros, or for renminbi?  Or trade it for a Ferrari?  No thanks, if you have physical gold, don't touch it, sit on it, and save it for a rainy day.  When the economy starts raining, and the dollar collapses, you'll be glad you have something of value.  ‘Patience, patience’ is the right stance.

Gold -- walkin' up the blue trendline.  The moving averages show a ‘golden cross.’  Sure, gold is overbought, but let's see if it can stay on the ascending trendline.  Look at the expanding volume on (Friday’s) rise to a new high.  I'm still waiting patiently for 1800.
Facts -- Suppose we decided to stabilize our growing debts through spending cuts alone?  We'd have to cut all government spending by 31%.

But suppose we decided to stabilize our growing debts through taxes alone.  We'd have to raise taxes by an impossible 46%.

Both of these solutions would wreck the nation.  Therefore, neither one will be on the table.  But a combination of both will probably be tried.

But wait -- suppose there is no political or reasonable answer to our growing and compounding deficits and debts -- none?  Then what?  Wait, there is one answer, and it's the answer that our government will surely try.  That answer is to try to print our way out of the debt problem.  The government will surely attempt to print our way out of our growing troubles.

The biggest debt problem is connected with our government health program.  By the year 2050, health programs will chew up about 14% of the US's entire gross national product.  Cutting back substantially on Medicare is politically impossible.

Thus, the answer to all the above is for the Federal Reserve to turn to printing us out of trouble.  How will we know when this is happening?  Since wholesale creation of the currency (printing) is inflationary, the answer is to monitor the dollar and to watch the bonds (which dislike inflation).

As the purchasing power of the dollar deteriorates, it will take an increasing number of dollars to buy one ounce of gold.  Thus, when we buy an ounce of gold, our purchasing power is stabilized.  But at the same time it will require an increasing number of dollars to buy one ounce of gold.  It will also require an increasing number of dollars to buy anything else.

As the dollar declines in purchasing power, it will begin to lose its international reserve status.  Foreigners will begin to avoid the US dollar.  At around that time I believe the dollar will face growing competition from the Chinese yuan.  To make matters more difficult, I believe the yuan will ultimately be partly backed by gold.  This will be part of China's plan to take over leadership of the world.

Throughout history, the nation with the reserve currency was also the nation with the most powerful military.  This was true of Holland, Spain and most recently, Britain.  When Britain lost its power and military (navy) leadership during World War II, the US moved to the fore, and, in turn (Bretton Woods), the US dollar became the world's reserve currency.

The US's Pentagon is now worried about the build-up of China's military, particularly its navy.  China knows what it is doing.  China knows that if it becomes the world's leading military power and it possesses the world's reserve currency, it will be the new leader of the world.