on.cc東網專訊
9月，國際大事陸續登場，投資者要準備迎接這個「多事之秋」；以下8個重要日子必須留意︰
【9/5 美國國會開議】
美國總統特朗普已呼籲國會別讓他失望。他的稅改4原則包括簡化稅制並防堵有利富人的漏洞、調降企業稅以創造就業、減輕中產階級家庭的稅負、對企業匯回國內的獲利減稅。但稅改案仍缺細節。
【9/7 歐洲央行討論購債政策】
歐洲央行買債計畫今年底到期，據報委員們開始擔心歐元急升，意味7日不太可能做出改變政策的決定。
【9/9 北韓國慶日】
南韓當局預測，北韓很可能在9日的國慶日前後再次試射彈道飛彈。
【9/12 蘋果傳將發表新品】
蘋果公司據傳將發表iPhone等新品。據傳iPhone等新品將取消Home鍵，更接近全螢幕，甚至刪除虛擬Home鍵，改採手勢控制操作、回到主畫面或啟動多工任務，成為iPhone上市10年來最大升級變動。
【9/20 聯儲局可能宣布啟動縮表】
幾位重要委員已暗示9月可能是宣布啟動縮表的適當時機。
【9/24 德國國會選舉】
默克爾領導的基民／基社聯盟民調支持率仍穩穩居雙位數，但她仍面臨右翼民粹主義崛起與難民等政策遭選民質疑的難題。
【9/30 美調高債限期限】
由於共和黨內部分裂加上特朗普行事作風難料，金融業代表、投資者與信貸機構擔心國會運作失調，可能無法趕在30日的期限前調高舉債上限。屆時將導致政府債務違約，衝擊全球市場。
2017年9月1日 星期五
Is Gold Still Relevant?
www.armstrongeconomics.com
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong, Gold rallies with each political event and then falls back when the event is over. It is not in a sustainable relentless bull market as was the case in the 70s. Almost every stock market has outperformed gold since 1980. This has made me wonder if something is different. Here in India the younger generation do not buy gold and simply no longer look at it as a safe haven as the older generations. When I travel to the USA, I notice the younger generation pay with their cell phones and are not even interested in paper money. In Europe, the younger generation is also disinterested in gold. Could it be that gold is becoming obsolete as the horse and buggy?
POM
ANSWER:
Yes, gold is still relevant for the older generation. It should rally right now and the month-end closing was very bullish into September, but not yet a breakout. To be impressive, gold must exceed the 2016 high of 1377.50 intraday. To show real strength into early 2018, we must close above 1393. A closing above the 2016 high would reflect a rally into 2018, but warn that we are more likely going to fall back once again. The rally in gold simply because of the dollar is not sustainable long-term.
Nevertheless, indeed, over the course of generations, the ideas and trends of one generation are eventually replaced with new trends. Just look at art. The paintings of women by Rubens were always robust. If you were thin you were considered poor. In Asia, girls try to whiten their skin because darker skin implies you are poor and work in the fields whereas in the States girls want to have a tan. Trends changes as do fashions over time. Investments are the same. The big investment up until 1907 was railroads and industrial stocks were considered risky ventures until the automobile change that perception.
The older generations are much more focused on gold and privacy issues than the younger generation. When I talk to someone in their twenties, having to travel and subjecting yourself to searches is normal. This is how it is to them. They do not understand Snowden.
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong, Gold rallies with each political event and then falls back when the event is over. It is not in a sustainable relentless bull market as was the case in the 70s. Almost every stock market has outperformed gold since 1980. This has made me wonder if something is different. Here in India the younger generation do not buy gold and simply no longer look at it as a safe haven as the older generations. When I travel to the USA, I notice the younger generation pay with their cell phones and are not even interested in paper money. In Europe, the younger generation is also disinterested in gold. Could it be that gold is becoming obsolete as the horse and buggy?
POM
ANSWER:
Yes, gold is still relevant for the older generation. It should rally right now and the month-end closing was very bullish into September, but not yet a breakout. To be impressive, gold must exceed the 2016 high of 1377.50 intraday. To show real strength into early 2018, we must close above 1393. A closing above the 2016 high would reflect a rally into 2018, but warn that we are more likely going to fall back once again. The rally in gold simply because of the dollar is not sustainable long-term.
Nevertheless, indeed, over the course of generations, the ideas and trends of one generation are eventually replaced with new trends. Just look at art. The paintings of women by Rubens were always robust. If you were thin you were considered poor. In Asia, girls try to whiten their skin because darker skin implies you are poor and work in the fields whereas in the States girls want to have a tan. Trends changes as do fashions over time. Investments are the same. The big investment up until 1907 was railroads and industrial stocks were considered risky ventures until the automobile change that perception.
The older generations are much more focused on gold and privacy issues than the younger generation. When I talk to someone in their twenties, having to travel and subjecting yourself to searches is normal. This is how it is to them. They do not understand Snowden.
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