都說股市好多人為因素, 你玩股定股玩你 ? 每一個浪都出一樣的結果, 無數散戶輸錢 !
蘋果日報
民企股越爆越大鑊，股榮知道企業有心造假，避也避不過，但令人惱火的，是作為負責維持秩序的港交所（ 388），對事件不聞不問。 CEO李小加一個多星期前指，「（博士蛙， 1698）是個別的特殊情況，並非制度上出現系統性問題，不會因為個別公司而修改資料披露的守則，但若果發現機制上存在問題，才會作出改善。」
博士蛙爆完，輪到大慶乳業（ 1007），然後民企股一隻接住一隻停牌，又或者跌到阿媽都唔記得。請問李小加，這是否仍然是個別情況？是否要等到民企股全部停晒牌，你先肯出手？
綜合過去半個月幾隻民企股出事，我發覺原來一直自誇與全球股市接軌，跟足國際監管模式的港交所，其實虛有其表。只是單單停牌機制，已經令萬千股民中伏。單睇博士蛙上月 15號開市前發通告，指核數師劈炮而毋須停賽，已經荒謬絕倫，更離譜係，午後到 12點半，先再補充資料話四億數有問題，中午又毋須停牌，等午後開市 38分鐘先落閘。
一個上午加午後 38分鐘，基金走得到，散仔以為執到寶，點知一個個變晒儍仔。我相信當日低撈博士蛙的散仔都係衰貪心，但時到如今，大部份恐怕輸得唔甘心。點解？同屬德勤核數的大慶，上月 22號開市前指核數師跳船，開市前已宣佈停牌。李小加，請你解釋點解同樣係核數師辭任，一個要停牌，另一個毋須停，究竟你搞邊科？
股份停牌無劃一準則
另一個例子仲激氣，歲寶（ 312）上月 21號話核數師須更多時間做嘢，放榜日期延至上周五（ 30日），殊不知 29號中午話停牌就停牌，聲稱有敏感消息， 30號晚反口指出唔到業績。同樣 30號放榜的宇陽（ 117）， 29號喪插兩成後、未有提及周五不能放榜即停牌，反觀華保（ 810）較早前亦指核數師須更多時間審核，未能 3月底前放榜，毋須停牌。
問過核數師，除非是公司未能提供資料，否則一定能在死線前一星期，大致完成核數工作，因此部份公司如寶姿（ 589）、澳優（ 1717）臨放榜前一日先話核數師要更多時間，完全難以令人信服。更可怕是貨源歸邊的喜尚（ 8179），五日跌八成，居然唔知原因毋須停牌。
民企冰封三尺，非一日之寒。港股加時無啖好食，我可以忍；偏幫烏輪輸打贏要，最多唔買輪唔買動物，但現時連遊戲規則都左搖右擺，停牌機制名存實亡，股榮真的忍受不了。李小加，今日係愚人節，但以上的說話卻很認真，我相信普羅投資者要的，是公平的制度，並非甚麼新股集資王、衍生工具王等，請認真好好由基本步出發。
股榮
2012年4月1日 星期日
Cartel Wearing Out All But the Most Diehard Silver Investors
呢篇文說, 白銀走勢會跟黃金, 而買完實銀就要坐穩唔好俾價格波動震出去 !
依家是整固期, 所以大家唔理銀價波動, 而去尋靚靚銀幣也是一個好策略; 反而手持銀條的人就會坐到發呆 !
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
When asked about silver’s current supply and demand fundamentals, David replied:
Industrial demand for silver has been increasing rather significantly over the last decade or so. If you go back a decade or so the total demand on the industrial side was about 38% of the market, and if you look at more recent studies, it’s grown to about 54% of the market.
During that 10 year time-frame the silver production from mining has gone up significantly, and that’s primarily been driven by the commodities boom overall, and that’s primarily been driven by China. That means that the demand side on industrial uses has increased.
As far as the investment demand goes, on the supply side, it’s increased from the year 2000 to present. Investment demand has been steadily increasing over time. If you look at the supply/demand from 1990 to 2006 we were in a structural deficit. That was about 100 million ounces a year for 15 years, so roughly 1.5 billion ounces of silver were depleted from 1990 to 2006.
At that time, the production curve crossed over the demand side (counting recycling), so there’s now actually more supply than there is demand, and that’s based on studies from the Silver Institute and the CPM Group.
So the low point in the total supply of silver was roughly in 2006, and the supply at that point was probably only 500 million ounces, and today we’ve probably got double that at least (and this is in only commercial bar form that I’m talking about now, I’m talking about 1,000 ounce bars- in that form only). We were at 500 million ounces in 2006, today we’re probably at a billion ounces.
The investment demand has increased steadily from that point- in April of 2006 the SLV was started, the first major ETF for silver. At inception it held 130 million ounces at the offset, now we’re about triple that at 300 million ounces in the SLV- purportedly the largest holder of silver in industrial form (in 1,000 ounce bars).
The demand in all the ETFs, holding companies, anything that holds silver in 1,000 ounce bars as an investment, has gone roughly from that point in April 2006 till now to about 800 million ounces that we can see in the public domain.
So the supply side has increased, but the demand side has increased. The demand side for the retail portion of the market, which is best looked at in the silver eagles (or silver liberties as they’re actually named) has been increasing substantially over the past few years.
When you look at the inception of the program in 1986 through about 3 years ago the average amount of off-take was about 10 million ounces. Then a few years back it doubled to 20 million ounces, then last year it was up to 40 million ounces.
Now we are seeing it probably wane off a bit. These markets are volatile as we all know, and I think right now we’re in a flat period, a consolidation period, and I believe that a lot of people that are really savvy about the silver and gold story are in. In other words, they bought their silver over the last few years, at some point from the beginning of the bull market till now. They’re in the market ,and they really aren’t in a position to add to their holdings, or if they are, they’re waiting for a pull-back, and there aren’t a lot of new buyers in the market right now on the retail side.
On the professional side, the money managers, professional managers, hedge fund types, they’re slowly coming back to the market. What’s interesting is that they’re coming into the market primarily on the physical side of the market- truly the physical side of the market- buying monster boxes or commercial bars for investment.
Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year before really we break through this consolidation level and get silver up to the $40 level or so. I could be wrong obviously, but I think that a lot of the people that are in the silver market and the gold market- and they pretty much track together, there’s an 84% correlation between the two metals, so the argument that silver is a lot different than gold is erroneous. It isn’t exactly like gold, but it’s very, very close.
Regardless, I think you’re going to see more consolidation and more people that are in the scare you out or the wear you out mode.
The scare you out mode is when you get these huge sell-offs like we saw on the 29th of February in the silver market. That scares a lot of people, and a lot of people that are waiting on the sidelines for a pull-back see that pull-back, and although a week before told themselves that if they ever saw a pull-back like that they’d jump in, they don’t. They get scared and they don’t get into the market.
Or, they get worn out. They’ve been holding silver let’s say above the $30 level- let’s say they’re holding it around $35, which is approximately where we are now, and they’ve watched it run to $48 and they’ve watched it come down to $26, and they’ve watched it come back and consolidate around the $30-$35 level, and they’re worn out! They’re saying silver isn’t as good a thing as I thought it was, and I’ve been holding it now for month after month after month and it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and I’ve got this other opportunity, so they sell their silver and they’re out of the market.
They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. That’s how markets work. That’s the psychology behind it.
依家是整固期, 所以大家唔理銀價波動, 而去尋靚靚銀幣也是一個好策略; 反而手持銀條的人就會坐到發呆 !
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
When asked about silver’s current supply and demand fundamentals, David replied:
Industrial demand for silver has been increasing rather significantly over the last decade or so. If you go back a decade or so the total demand on the industrial side was about 38% of the market, and if you look at more recent studies, it’s grown to about 54% of the market.
During that 10 year time-frame the silver production from mining has gone up significantly, and that’s primarily been driven by the commodities boom overall, and that’s primarily been driven by China. That means that the demand side on industrial uses has increased.
As far as the investment demand goes, on the supply side, it’s increased from the year 2000 to present. Investment demand has been steadily increasing over time. If you look at the supply/demand from 1990 to 2006 we were in a structural deficit. That was about 100 million ounces a year for 15 years, so roughly 1.5 billion ounces of silver were depleted from 1990 to 2006.
At that time, the production curve crossed over the demand side (counting recycling), so there’s now actually more supply than there is demand, and that’s based on studies from the Silver Institute and the CPM Group.
So the low point in the total supply of silver was roughly in 2006, and the supply at that point was probably only 500 million ounces, and today we’ve probably got double that at least (and this is in only commercial bar form that I’m talking about now, I’m talking about 1,000 ounce bars- in that form only). We were at 500 million ounces in 2006, today we’re probably at a billion ounces.
The investment demand has increased steadily from that point- in April of 2006 the SLV was started, the first major ETF for silver. At inception it held 130 million ounces at the offset, now we’re about triple that at 300 million ounces in the SLV- purportedly the largest holder of silver in industrial form (in 1,000 ounce bars).
The demand in all the ETFs, holding companies, anything that holds silver in 1,000 ounce bars as an investment, has gone roughly from that point in April 2006 till now to about 800 million ounces that we can see in the public domain.
So the supply side has increased, but the demand side has increased. The demand side for the retail portion of the market, which is best looked at in the silver eagles (or silver liberties as they’re actually named) has been increasing substantially over the past few years.
When you look at the inception of the program in 1986 through about 3 years ago the average amount of off-take was about 10 million ounces. Then a few years back it doubled to 20 million ounces, then last year it was up to 40 million ounces.
Now we are seeing it probably wane off a bit. These markets are volatile as we all know, and I think right now we’re in a flat period, a consolidation period, and I believe that a lot of people that are really savvy about the silver and gold story are in. In other words, they bought their silver over the last few years, at some point from the beginning of the bull market till now. They’re in the market ,and they really aren’t in a position to add to their holdings, or if they are, they’re waiting for a pull-back, and there aren’t a lot of new buyers in the market right now on the retail side.
On the professional side, the money managers, professional managers, hedge fund types, they’re slowly coming back to the market. What’s interesting is that they’re coming into the market primarily on the physical side of the market- truly the physical side of the market- buying monster boxes or commercial bars for investment.
Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year before really we break through this consolidation level and get silver up to the $40 level or so. I could be wrong obviously, but I think that a lot of the people that are in the silver market and the gold market- and they pretty much track together, there’s an 84% correlation between the two metals, so the argument that silver is a lot different than gold is erroneous. It isn’t exactly like gold, but it’s very, very close.
Regardless, I think you’re going to see more consolidation and more people that are in the scare you out or the wear you out mode.
The scare you out mode is when you get these huge sell-offs like we saw on the 29th of February in the silver market. That scares a lot of people, and a lot of people that are waiting on the sidelines for a pull-back see that pull-back, and although a week before told themselves that if they ever saw a pull-back like that they’d jump in, they don’t. They get scared and they don’t get into the market.
Or, they get worn out. They’ve been holding silver let’s say above the $30 level- let’s say they’re holding it around $35, which is approximately where we are now, and they’ve watched it run to $48 and they’ve watched it come down to $26, and they’ve watched it come back and consolidate around the $30-$35 level, and they’re worn out! They’re saying silver isn’t as good a thing as I thought it was, and I’ve been holding it now for month after month after month and it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and I’ve got this other opportunity, so they sell their silver and they’re out of the market.
They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. That’s how markets work. That’s the psychology behind it.
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