【市後重點睇】關注德拉吉講話及聯儲紀要

on.cc東網專訊

歐洲央行行長德拉吉今晚將發表講話，歐元現升0.07%，報1.1192美元。美匯指數仍徘徊97水平，現報97.28。金價現跌0.23%報1,252美元，美元兌日圓報111.84。

●市後關注點
-20:45 歐洲央行行長德拉吉講話
-21:00 美國3月FHFA房價指數
-22:00 加拿大央行利率決議、美國4月成屋銷售總數年化
-22:30 美國能源信息署（EIA）發布政府版原油庫存周報
-凌晨02:00 聯儲局發布5月3日FOMC貨幣政策會議紀要

●港股反覆靠穩，加上騰訊回吐，恒生指數早段曾跌過百點，尾市買盤再現，以全日高位收市，報25,428點，升25點，波幅132點。國企指數收報10,390點，跌4點。主板成交700億港元。

●滬深股市低開後反覆向上，滬綜指全日收報3,064點，升2點或0.07%；深成指升48點或0.5%，報9,812點；滬深300指跌0.03點，報3,424.17點；創業板指升18點或1.03%，報1,776點。

●歐股3大指數開市偏軟，英國富時100指數開市報7,485點，無升跌；德國DAX指數報12,631點，跌28點或0.2%；法國CAC指數報5,335點，跌0.2%。

●【fb直播】鷹君爭產疑雲，羅康瑞首開腔。可瀏覽以下連結重溫：
http://bit.ly/2qUIUsk

●【中國降級】財政部指穆迪對或有債務乏瞭解。
http://bit.ly/2qO8dMA

●發改委將進一步擴大央企混改第3批試點企業範圍，提高覆蓋面。

●外媒報道，據美國聯邦通訊委員會文件，蘋果公司計劃測試下一代5G無線技術。

●泰國央行公布，維持基準利率於1.5%。

●海之戀暫錄收票非香港買家少於2%。

●啟德商業地周五截標，再有業界調高估值。

●油塘鯉安苑第二市場實用呎價首見萬關。

Silver Leads Gold In Rate Hike Cycle – Stewart Thomson

www.silverdoctors.com

Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:

1. Since Chinese New Year buying peaked in February, gold has essentially traded sideways with a mild upside bias.Here’s why:
2. Indian dealers are waiting for the government to announce the GST rate for gold, and it’s too early for them to begin stocking up for Diwali.
3. So, the price discovery ball is now in the US central bank’s court.  I’ll dare to suggest that most gold market investors don’t fully understand the relationship between interest rates, money velocity, and gold.
4. Gold rises when events create or signify rising risk, regardless of what those events are.  Sometimes a decline in interest rates increases risk, and sometimes a rise in rates increases risk.
5. In the current environment, rising rates increase the odds that banks will lend money so aggressively that inflation rises much faster than interest rates.
6. Interest rates are incredibly low from a historical perspective, so gold investors who are inflation enthusiasts need to exercise patience.It takes time for rates to rise enough for banks to become aggressive (and perhaps reckless) with lending policy.
7. In the current hiking cycle, there have been three rate hikes.  As I predicted, each hike has been followed by a superb rally in the price of gold.
8.  The good news is that the next major Fed rate hike announcement should happen on June 14, which is now only about three weeks away.From a technical standpoint, the $1265 resistance zone has halted most of the recent gold rallies, but the overall price action feels very firm.  Gold investors should feel strong and confident.
9.  
10. From a technical standpoint, the $1265 resistance zone has halted most of the recent gold rallies, but the overall price action feels very firm.  Gold investors should feel strong and confident.
11. Double-click to enlarge this COT report for gold.
12. It’s clear that the “smart money” commercial traders have a positive outlook; they are covering lots of short positions and adding a decent number of longs.
13. The COT report for silver is also very positive.  The commercial traders are solid buyers and they are also covering short positions.
14. These COT reports should add more confidence to the average metals market investor’s belief that a post Fed rate hike rally could be a very big one!
15.  
16. A breakout above $1265 should occur after the June rate hike, and the rally following that breakout should take gold above the downtrend line that I’ve drawn from the $1923 area high.
17. In the big picture, gold has traded sideways in a large rectangular pattern for almost four years.  The rough trading range of that pattern is $1100 to $1400.
18. In my professional opinion, the sideways action is coming to an end… both technically and fundamentally.
19. The target of an upside breakout from the large rectangular pattern is the $1600+ area.  That is good news for a lot of gold and silver mining companies.
20. Most gold miners have costs below the current price of gold, but an extra cushion of $200 an ounce should turn them into a herd of cash cows.
21. Double-click to enlarge this long term silver chart.
    Silver broke above its downtrend line back in 2015.  That breakout suggests something similar is coming in gold. 
22. If it’s accompanied by an uptick in money velocity, gold and silver stocks could shock most investors with a nice move higher.
23. This SIL silver stocks ETF chart has also broken above its downtrend line.  It’s trading well above the 2016 lows, and is poised to make silver stock enthusiasts very happy, very soon.
24. On a technical level, silver has a general tendency to lead gold.  On a fundamental level, it is the rise in interest rates (both current and prospective) that should reverse money velocity.  That will change the technical charts from their current sideways price action to rally mode.  Odds are growing that this happens at the same time as Indian dealers begin stocking for Diwali, adding some serious “juice” to the rally!