2013年4月30日 星期二

「十年來最靜黃金周」 名店冷清 金舖獨旺

蘋果日報

【本報訊】內地昨日開始為期三天的五一黃金周假期,記者在香港不同旅遊購物點觀察,只有金舖獨旺,大批內地客在金舖外等開門;而尖沙嘴名牌手袋店人龍不再,LV門外罕有地人流疏落。旅遊業議會總幹事董耀中坦言:「應該係近十年來最靜嘅黃金周。」
記者:鄭柏齡周燕芬

連同剛過去的周日,今年內地黃金周只有四天。入境處公佈黃金周首日,從各口岸入境的內地旅客僅約12萬人,較去年減少近萬人。跟團入境的旅客更少,董耀中 預計黃金周期內,本港接待內地團的數量,很大機會出現按年倒退。「禽流感疫情會有影響,香港啲酒店又貴,令遊客卻步。」董耀中坦言,今年五一旅遊業淡靜, 「應該係2003年沙士之後,最靜嘅黃金周」。

「賣龍鳳鈪好似賣叉燒包」

金價連日上漲無損搶金熱潮。昨約上午11時,逾20名內地客聚集在沙田一間商場內金舖門外,排隊等開門掃貨,情況墟冚;尖沙嘴彌敦道多間金舖更逼滿遊客, 店內經理稱「賣龍鳳鈪好似賣叉燒包咁,一拎出嚟就俾人搶晒,生意咁好希望有人工加啦」。
周大福發言人指,不少店舖需實施人潮管制。六福主席黃偉常亦表示,油尖旺區店舖人流,較平日增加數倍,一個月黃金存貨已全數賣清。
金 舖旺未能反映黃金周訪港旅客急跌的事實。內地團必到景點之一的灣仔金紫荊廣場,早上11時左右人流稀疏,一個小時內只約三、四個旅行團抵埗,在場為遊客拍照的大叔,不知是否生意淡靜,脾氣也較暴躁,面對女遊客慢慢揀相沖曬,惡形惡相喝叫:「冇得揀呀!賺你少少錢喺度左揀右揀阻住晒。」
來自山東、參加「零團費」的團友鄧先生表示,「交通免費、住宿免費、食也免費,只是海洋公園要自費」。他選擇了這個團,就是因為它夠「平」。
內地團另一必到購物點、位於紅磡的珠寶首飾店,記者上周六曾在現場觀察,人流尚算多。不過昨日再到訪,團數明顯減少,下午3時左右,只停泊了12架旅遊巴,較周六下跌三成。
當中以有黃金售賣的金舖人氣鼎盛,逾200人擠在店內買金;鄰近一間珠寶店,內地客興趣則不大,店內逾半客人坐在一邊聊天。街上專做遊客生意的朱古力店更加冷清,有店員力銷「200蚊人仔三盒朱古力」,內地客出手未見闊綽,思前想後離開又折返,最終才決定花這200元。尖沙嘴廣東道上的名牌專賣店,昔日黃金周人頭湧湧,昨午2、3時人流疏落,拿着大包小包的內地豪客明顯減少。在LV、Gucci門外皆不見人龍,差不多每十人入店,僅一人購物。

多間酒店仍有房間供應

酒店業同樣失色,昔日酒店旅館爆滿瘋狂加價的情況已成過去。油尖旺以至觀塘等酒店、旅館,昨仍有房間可租。尖東四、五星級酒店房仍有充裕房間,價格只上調 一成左右。主攻自由行客的尖沙嘴華麗酒店,職員表示仍有房間租訂,標準房租金1,100元。位於觀塘的帝盛酒店,職員指今日仍有少量房間供應。

Gold Stocks In Panic Mode?

文章說, 金礦股要跌是做好準備2017-2020的金價大升市 !
依家出產會減少或有礦關閉, 減少供應 !
如果計返通脹, 1980年的金價依家應值 2300, 所以一定要升穿呢個位才是正真的牛三市 !

armstrongeconomics.com

The Gold Stocks have fallen from grace fairly hard. This is what is actually necessary for the rally to continue into the 2017 to 2020 area. Supply must be reduced. As marginal mines shut down or slow production, this helps to reduce future supply. It will take a steady rise in prices to new highs before a lot become convinced to start-up again. Adjusted for inflation, the 1980 high is about $2300. That is the general level that must be exceeded before a real bull market unfolds.


美機構聯手做淡有陰謀?

文匯報

此次黃金暴跌,眾多因素均源自美國,美聯儲擬年底退出QE政策、高盛再度發佈看空黃金的新報告以及美國大量的 機構紛紛做空黃金,導致金價15日出現30年最大單日跌幅,並創兩年多來新低。香港資深黃金投資專家、財富雲端網首席學術顧問李德明指,市場有一個傳聞, 此輪金價暴跌中美國是幕後的推手,意在打壓金價後再從低位購買金條,歸還被它「偷走」的德國和荷蘭等國儲存在美國的金條。

 為了維護本國黃金儲備的安全,德國央行去年底把存儲在美、英、法的黃金逐步運回國,德國作為全球 第二大黃金儲備國,其絕大部分黃金儲存於美國,多達1,500噸,佔德國黃金儲備的一半。因擔心儲存在美國的黃金儲備被偷樑換柱,德國便向美國提出檢驗其 黃金的要求,美國卻以安全為由予以拒絕,也不歸還黃金,以免動搖其在全球金融市場的霸主地位。此後,荷蘭也提出要將儲存於美國的黃金儲備運回本國。

趁低價買金 遲還德國 

 目前全球共有60多個國家將部分或大部分的黃金儲存於美國,其中,中國共有600噸黃金儲存於美國,這些黃金被儲藏在紐約美聯儲銀行的地下金庫裡。但美國並不輕易答應將這些黃金儲備送還給那些國家。 

 李德明認為,當德國央行去年12月底提出將儲存美國的黃金取回時,美國正面臨「財政懸崖」危機,當 時國際金價達1,700美元,之前美國很可能已偷偷地將德國儲存在美國的黃金進行抵押融資,去年底還給德國黃金的價格過高,於是美國拒絕歸還。此番美國通 過美聯儲釋放年底退出QE政策、高盛唱空黃金,美國大量的對沖基金等紛紛聯手做空黃金,等黃金跌至低位時美國再買入黃金慢慢分批還給德國等國,這樣,美國就大賺了一把,並且還可間接推高美元,美國可謂一舉兩得。對此,馮志堅也表示,此輪金價暴跌,美國各大機構聯手做空,起到推波助瀾的作用。

黃金後市引發好淡激辯

文匯報

金價4月15日暴跌逾9%,並一度跌穿1330美元支持位,在許多投資者紛紛撈底推動下,目前金價反彈,在19日突破1,400美元。但這次雪崩式下挫,卻動搖了部分人對黃金的的信心,引發了金價後市的好淡雙方激烈爭辯。 

高盛:美國經濟增速加快 

高盛是此輪金價的始作俑者,該行在4月10日建議沽售黃金,幾日後,金價在截至4月15日的兩個交易日內重挫13%,創下30年來的最大跌幅。該行發表的 最新報告(4月23日)表示,金價經過近日急跌過的回彈後,將會繼續下跌。該行預計,金價三個月內可能上漲至1,530美元,六個月至1,490美元,十 二個月跌至1,390美元。高盛把衡量24種大宗商品價格的標準普爾GSCI指數的三個月和十二個月回報率預估下調至2.5%,此前的預估分別為6%和3 %,該行還把大宗商品的近期展望從增持下調至中性。
高盛認為,美國經濟增長加速,將超過趨勢水平,並提振美國真實利率,因此下調以美元計價的黃金價格預期,「考慮到ETF資金外流,持有黃金的意願繼續減退,再加上我們的經濟學家預計美國經濟今年稍晚將加速增長,我們預計金價將進一步下跌。」 

QE未釀高通脹 失對沖作用 

高盛的看淡理由,連商品大王羅傑斯也表認同,以往一直看好黃金的羅傑斯認為,金價會跌至1,200-1,300美元。摩根基金亞洲首席市場策略師許長泰認 為,以往金價上升主要由於市場期望以黃金對沖通脹,但在去年底起發動的多國量寬措施並未帶來高通脹,投資黃金又沒有利息,令投資者選擇另外的投資工具。 

保爾森:金價續長期看漲 

但與此相反的是,保爾森仍看好黃金的保值避險屬性。保爾森公司的合夥人,同時也是黃金策略師的瑞德(John Reade)強調,「近來金價走跌並沒有改變我們的長期看法」。他解釋,受到全球主要政府以前所未見的速度挹注資金到經濟,將支撐金價長期續漲。瑞德預期 在經濟與股市相繼轉強下,將導致貨幣供給增加的速度超出經濟實際增長,最終將引發通貨膨脹。此外,貨幣貶值也讓黃金成為深具吸引力的長期投資。 

馮志堅:年內返1,600美元 

香港黃金專家馮志堅亦認為,目前黃金開採成本價在1,000美元以上,隨尠歐美日本量化寬鬆刺激經濟,令全球流動生氾濫成災,美元、歐元等紙幣不斷貶值, 黃金的貨幣屬性日益受人追捧,因此,他認為,金價今年內將重返1500-1600美元。加上全球巨大的投資需求和中國、印度等國龐大的實物消費需求支撐金 價。他稱,此次金價暴跌,香港和內地出現金條賣斷貨、黃金珠寶首飾熱銷等,未來黃金將會出現反彈,收復之前的失地。 

李德明:仍為避險保值天堂 

香港資深黃金投資專家、財富雲端網首席學術顧問李德明認為,黃金的避險保值屬性並未改變,尤其是美國、日本推出瘋狂的量化寬鬆,未來將刺激全球新一輪通脹,黃金無疑成為避險保值的天堂。他建議投資者,要學會深入分析黃金市場,了解經濟基本面和全球氾濫的流動性和美元貶值趨勢,加上朝韓對峙、中東敘利亞等 地緣政治因素困擾,當金價暴跌後,投資者可以在底部加倉,等反彈之後獲得一定收益再賣出。

美5月擴債限 黃金轉運?

文匯報

4月15日國際金價暴跌逾9%,創30年來最大單日跌幅,跌至兩年新低。金價突然「價崩」,動搖了部分人的信 心,黃金對沖通脹的作用及儲備地位受到質疑,認為連升12年的黃金市場已轉入熊市。不過,值得留意的是,5月19日美國又將迎來債務上限投票,市場預計共 和民主兩黨又將展開激烈的拉鋸戰,評級機構或再調降美國主權債務評級,數據顯示,目前不少對沖基金趁金價大跌和美國債務上限的逼近而紛紛做多黃金。5月金 價會否迎來一波反彈,正引發好淡雙方大激辯。 
■香港文匯報記者 李昌鴻 

美國的債務危機和量化寬鬆是影響全球黃金走勢的重大因素,美國原本2月底上調債務上限,但是在今年 初,美國民主黨和共和黨在債務上限問題激烈爭吵和難以妥協,眾議院最後通過決議,允許財政部繼續發行國債以維持聯邦政府運營至5月19日,以留出時間讓兩 黨討價還價。在5月19日之前,兩黨可以繼續圍繞關鍵性向富人增稅和福利削減等問題談判,這將引起投資者高度關注。因此,5月19日是個關鍵日期。 

 評級機構惠譽國際在今年初警告稱,如果美國未能通過預算談判解決債務上限和不斷膨脹的問題,美國評級將可能下調。穆迪也表示,將對美國的兩黨有關債務上限的談判密切關注,如果談判失敗,美國的評級將很有可能被下調為Aa1。
年多前同處境 金價創新高
前車可鑒,在2011年6-7月,美國兩黨經過持續5次艱苦的拉鋸戰,終於達成協議調高債務上限。但 時間則有些延遲,加上債務高企,標普當年8月6日便將美國債務評級「AAA」降至「AA+」,引發當時環球股市急挫,黃金則受避險資金推動,從1,660 美元附近展開凌厲的上攻,並於當年9月初達到創紀錄的1,921美元歷史新高,短短不到一個月的時間暴漲15.72%。 

需求仍在 「沽神」看好黃金 

儘管重金押注黃金的「沽神」約翰.保爾森(John Paulson)在近日此輪金價暴跌中,虧損以十億美元計,但他仍堅持看好黃金避險保值的前景,他上周在送給客戶的信函中表示,全球央行將購買黃金,亞洲 地區的需求也將對金價構成支撐。與此同時,美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的周度統計數據顯示,截至4月16日的一周,在金價大跌後,對沖基金等機構 投資者把黃金的淨多倉提高9.8%至61579份期貨和期權合約,反映5月美國提高債務上限時間窗口再度逼近,投資者博黃金反彈。 

香港黃金專家馮志堅接受香港文匯報記者採訪時表示,美國高企的財政赤字和多輪量化寬鬆,無疑令美元 持續貶值,而以美元計價的黃金則會受到追捧上漲,美國5月中旬債務上限談判也將會推動金價反彈,並將收復近期暴跌的失地,回升至1,500-1,600美 元,他長期看好黃金,認為未來仍將會升至2,000美元。 

張德熙:年底見二千美元 

香港金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙指,近期金價急跌,不排除在大部分技術盤平倉後,會有新的上升動力。他料今季金價走勢會於每盎司1,280美元至1,420美元上落,下半年會逐步上升,至年底或將高見2,000美元水平,再創新高。他認為,目前支持金價的 因素包括多國推出量化寬鬆政策、日圓貶值以及歐債危機等因素,地緣政局也未見平穩,黃金仍有其避險作用。

業主減價吸上車客樓市加速下調 300萬平盤重現

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 黃嘉銘)曾幾何時,400萬元的樓盤都已是「窮人恩物」,惟在政府辣招及銀行加息等夾擊下,二手業主肯減價,樓市拾級而下,幾乎絕跡的300萬元上車盤再 度湧現。有分析認為,政府連串打擊需求措施,令樓市回到用家主導的軌道,樓價再升空間消失,隨著新增供應逐漸推出發售,樓市已然轉勢,下調壓力逐步增強。

 《一手住宅物業銷售條例》昨起實施,加上早前政府的多重辣招,以及銀行加按息的利淡因素影響,樓 市瞬間冰封,有代理直言,明天只有兩個新盤應市,將會是有史以來最慘淡的「五一」假期。事實上,現時市場上買家正呈現兩極化,其一為完全不太在意辣招的富 戶,但只佔極少數;另一種是未持有任何物業的上車用家,惟這批用家資金有限,只能買銀碼較細的單位,部分早前開天殺價的二手業主,亦放軟身段,調低叫價, 吸納這批上車客,令市場近日200萬至300萬元的上車盤數量回升。

上車盤大多集中新界區 

 綜合最新成交及叫價資料,現時200萬至300萬元的上車盤大多集中於新界區,當中不乏具指標性的 大型屋苑。美聯黎燦強表示,天水圍嘉湖山莊現時有大約180個300萬以下的兩房盤,盤源增加一成左右,價位則平均回落5%-8%,實用面積平均每方呎叫 價約6,000元。其中麗湖居7座中層F室,建築面積576方呎,實用面積442方呎,兩房間隔,原先開價275萬元,現減價至255萬元,減幅 7.3%。而有關300萬以下的放盤約佔全屋苑的放盤量四成。
 另一藍籌屋苑沙田第一城亦出現300萬元的放盤,比之前同類單位成交高位回落一成,其中44座高 層戶,實用面積304方呎,開價300萬元,比上月成交344.8萬元的45座中層C室的相同面積單位低13%。有代理指,現時區內叫價明顯回軟半成至一 成不等,但叫價低於300萬元的放盤只是佔少數,約佔全屋苑150個放盤量的2%-3%,價位仍有一定程度支持。 

大埔中心減價40萬沽出 

 中原方翰達表示,大埔中心4座高層E室,實用面積299方呎,業主於1月放盤時開價340萬元,見 近日市況淡靜,於本月減至320萬元,於議價時再減至300萬元沽出單位,共減價40萬或11.8%,實用面積平均呎價10,033元。新買家為同區分支 家庭。據了解,原業主於2011年1月以213萬元購入單位,持貨約2年多,是次轉手賬面獲利約87萬元,升值約40.8%。
 金龍地產馮宇成指,現時粉嶺區二手業主紛紛接受現實,多個私人屋苑的叫價明顯回軟,部分更跌穿 300萬元。其中花都廣場5座中層戶,實用面積390方呎,原先開價300萬元,現減至288萬元,減幅4%。另外,同區碧湖花園6座中層單位,實用面積 458方呎,原先開價310萬元,現減至300萬元,減幅3.2%。現時區內300萬元以下盤源約佔全屋苑的三成左右,估計未來有關佔比會持續增加,價位 日漸回歸理性。

2013年4月29日 星期一

白蟻闖銀行噬百萬元

蘋果日報

印度北部北方邦一家銀行被「洗劫」1,000萬盧比(約143萬港元)。覬覦巨款的不是持械悍匪,而是一群白蟻。

肇事銀行將鈔票放在金屬夾萬內,豈料白蟻無孔不入,竟可鑽進鋼製夾萬,將一叠叠鈔票咬爛。警方將調查管理層是否疏忽。其實印度各地銀行不時蟻多為患,白蟻除了吞食現金,還會破壞各種器材。

英國《都市報》

金價1500美元為重要阻力

文匯報

英皇金融集團(香港)總裁 黃美斯 

 倫敦黃金上周錄得三個月來最大單周漲幅,在之前一周金價及兩年低位後實貨需求強勁。金價上周四一度 大漲2.5%,錄得6月來最大單日升幅。金價自4月16日觸及的兩年低位1,321美元之回升走勢,至今已收復近半4月失地。周四在投資大亨John Paulson表示,會維持對黃金的正面看法後,對黃金的買盤持續。周三晚國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)公佈數據顯示,俄羅斯等央行在3月增加黃金儲備後, 市場人氣已獲提振。金價在周四漲至1,468水平,至周五早盤再下一城,升見近1,485水平。

 不過,投資人獲利了結令金價自高位回落,跌至1,460附近水平收盤。期權相關賣盤出現,且原油 和銅等工業商品下跌,均令金價承壓。全球最大的黃金支持的上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust的黃金持有量在周五進一步至1,083.05噸,為2009年10月來的最低水平。 

 技術走勢而言,隨著RSI及隨機指數持續走升,再而MACD與訊號線已見形成黃金交叉,4天重新 上破9天平均線,均示意金價短期或見持續反彈走勢。計算其反彈幅度,以黃金比率推算,自4月9日1,590起始之跌幅,61.8%之反彈將可看至 1,488美元。更為關鍵的,估計1,500關口仍將會是一個重要阻力,特別亦要注視一下25天平均線,回顧在本月中的兩日急挫之前的走勢,金價在本月初 跌破25天平均線,雖然其後曾力試反撲,但就是剛好於25天線前行人止步,之後隔日則一瀉千里。 

 因此,回看目前走勢,金價在1,509水平之25天平均線應會遭遇較強力阻力,但若果可一舉突破,則在技術上或告扭轉近月來之疲弱走勢,續後目標將可看至1,536及1,542水平。下方支持預估在1,452及1,437水平,較大支撐見於9天平均線1,415。

 倫敦白銀經過接近兩星期之窄幅區間盤整後,於上周四終見有所起色,突破了關鍵之24美元頂部,至周 五一度衝高至24.82美元,而全球最大白銀ETF iShares Silver Trust亦先後在周四及周五增加持倉量,為3月27日以來首度作出增持。截至4月26日的白銀持倉量增至10,392.42。 

基金增持 白銀見起色 

 回看目前圖形走勢,銀價突破區間,技術上應見進一步上漲空間,而配合RSI及隨機指數自超賣區回 升,以至MACD與訊號線亦出現交疊成形黃金交叉,均鞏固了銀價重踏升途的假設。較近目標先在25.20,預計下一阻力關口將在25天平均線25.95, 由於三月份白銀走勢亦是受制於此指標,故一旦此趟可作突破,應令反彈空間更為寬大,下一級將看至27.20及28.80水平。另一方面,下方支持則回看 23.20及22.70美元關口,較大支撐則見於21.50及20.70美元。

2013年4月28日 星期日

Physical Gold Vs Paper Gold: Waiting For The Dam To Break

呢篇是好文章, 講解實金和紙金的分別和近來金銀市場發生乜事, 不過因為太長所以本人須讀多幾篇才能用中文寫出內容 ! 大家都可以用 google 翻譯去讀內容 !

在西方, 就係美國和歐洲, 金融界當黃金是投資, 而全球黃金庫存是約16萬噸 !
在西方只有少數投資者會持有實金, 不同亞洲人當實金是儲蓄 ! 

在1974年全球黃金庫存是約今日的一半, 就係約8萬噸, 其中國家儲備約3.7萬噸, 所以剩下4.3萬噸是金條、金幣和金飾 ! 因為無正確記錄, 所以估計有3萬噸實金是在西方少數人手中 !
在1980年的牛市, 因為驚通脹, 所以好多投資者買金幣和金礦股票 ! 而賺取美元的油元國家和全球富有的投資者會經瑞士和倫敦買金條 !
之後在 Volcker 加息時代, 通脹下降使黃金轉入熊市, 而西方投資者減少實金投資 ! 
去到2000年西方一年的飾金銷量得返400-750噸, 所以實金儲存也會比1974年的3萬噸少好多, 但全球的庫存已去到 12.8萬噸 ! 呢個時候印度開始增加買入實金, 而打後中國都買入實金 ! 西方的投資顧問又不建議客戶投資黃金, 所以新出產的實金都俾不是西方國家買去了 ! 西方愈來愈少的實金儲存可以解釋到近來發生的金價壓價事件 !


www.zerohedge.com

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod, via GoldMoney.com,

Introduction

In this article I will argue that the recent slide in the gold price has generated substantial demand for bullion that will likely bring forward a financial and systemic disaster for both central and bullion banks that has been brewing for a long time. To understand why, we must examine their role and motivations in precious metals markets and assess current ownership of physical gold, while putting investor emotion into its proper context.

In the West (by which in this article I broadly mean North America and Europe) the financial community treats gold as an investment. However, of the global pool of gold, which GoldMoney estimates to be about 160,000 tonnes, the amount actually held by western investors in portfolios is a very small fraction of this amount. Furthermore investor behaviour, which in itself accounts for just part of the West’s bullion demand, is sharply at odds with the hoarders’ objectives, which is behind underlying tensions in bullion markets. To compound the problem, analysts, whose focus incorporates portfolio investment theories and assumptions, have very little understanding of the economic case for precious metals, being schooled in modern neo-classical economic theories.

These economic theories, coupled with modern investment analysis when applied to bullion pricing, have failed to understand the growing human desire for protection from monetary instability. The result has for a considerable time been the suppression of bullion prices in capital markets below their natural level of balance set by supply and demand.

Furthermore, the value put on precious metals by hoarders in the West has been less than the value to hoarders in other countries, particularly the growing numbers of savers in Asia.

These tensions, if they persist, are bound to contribute to the eventual destruction of paper currencies.

The ownership of gold

The amount of gold bullion that backs investor-driven markets is not statistically recorded, but we can illustrate its significance relative to total stocks by referring back to the time of the oil crisis of the mid-1970s. In 1974 the global stock of gold was estimated to be half that of today, at about 80,000 tonnes. Monetary gold was about 37,000 tonnes, leaving 43,000 tonnes in the form of non-monetary bullion, coins and jewellery. Let us arbitrarily assume, on the basis of global wealth distribution, that two thirds of this was held by the minority population in the West, amounting to about 30,000 tonnes.

This figure probably grew somewhat before the early 1980s, spurred by the bull market and growing fear of inflation, which saw investors buy mainly coins and mining shares. Demand for gold bars was driven by the rapid accumulation of dollars in the oil-exporting nations, as well as some hoarding by wealthy investors from all over the world through Switzerland and London.

The sharp rise in global interest rates in the Volcker era, the subsequent decline of the inflation threat and the resulting bear market for gold inevitably led to a reduction of bullion holdings by wealthy investors in the West. Swiss and other private banks, employing a new generation of fund managers and investment advisors trained in modern portfolio theories, started selling their customers’ bullion positions in the 1980s, leaving very little by 2000. In the latter stages of the bear market, jewellery sales in the West became a replacement source of bullion supply, but this was insufficient to compensate for massive portfolio liquidation.

So by the year 2000, Western ownership of non-monetary gold suffered the severe attrition of a twenty-year bear market and the reduction of inflation expectations. Portfolios, which routinely had 10-15% exposure to gold 40 years ago even today have virtually no exposure at all. Given that jewellery consumption in Europe and North America was only 400-750 tonnes per annum over the period, by the year 2000 overall gold ownership in the West must have declined significantly from the 1974 guesstimate of 30,000 tonnes. While the total gold stock in 2000 stood at 128,000 tonnes, the virtual elimination of portfolio holdings will have left Western holders with little more than perhaps an accumulation of jewellery, coins and not much else: bar ownership would have been at a very low ebb.
Since 2000, demand from countries such as India and more recently China is known to have increased sharply, supporting the thesis that gold has continued to accumulate at an accelerating pace in non-Western hands.

Western bullion markets have therefore been on the edge of a physical stock crisis for some time. Much of the West’s physical gold ownership since 2000 has been satisfied by recycling scrap originating in the West, suggesting that total gold ownership in the West today barely rose before the banking crisis despite a tripling of prices. Meanwhile the disparity between demand for gold in the West compared with the rest of the world has continued, while the West’s investment management community has been actively discouraging investment.

The result has been that nearly all new mine production and Western central bank supply has been absorbed by non-Western hoarders and their central banks. While post-banking crisis there has presumably been a pick-up in Western hoarding, as evidenced by ETF and coin sales and some institutional involvement, it is dwarfed by demand from other countries. So it is reasonable to conclude that of the total stock of non-monetary gold, very little of it is left in Western hands. And so long as the pressure for migration out of the West’s ownership continues, there will come a point where there is so little gold left that futures and forwards markets cease to operate effectively. That point might have actually arrived, signalled by attempts to smash the price this month.

This admittedly broad-brush assessment has important implications for the price stability essential to bullion banks operating in paper markets as well as for central banks attempting to maintain confidence in their paper currencies.

Precious metals in capital markets

In the West itself, the attitudes of the investment community are fundamentally different from even those of the majority of Western hoarders, who are looking for protection from systemic and currency risks as opposed to investment returns. Western investors are generally oblivious to the implications, the most fundamental of which is that falling prices actually stimulate physical demand. Before the recent dramatic slide in prices the investment community undervalued precious metals compared with Western hoarders, let alone those in Asia, encouraging physical bullion to migrate from financial markets both to firmer hands in the West as well as the bulk of it to non-West ownership. There is now irrefutable evidence that these flows have accelerated significantly on lower prices in recent weeks, as rational price theory would lead one to expect.

Pricing bullion is therefore not as simple as the investment community generally believes. It is being put about, mostly on grounds of technical analysis, that the bull markets in gold and silver have ended, and precious metals have entered a new downtrend. The evidence cited is that medium and longer-term moving averages have been violated and are now falling; furthermore important support levels have been breached.

These developments, which arise out of the futures and forward markets, have rattled Western investors who thought they were in for an easy ride. However, a close examination of futures trading shows the bearish case even on investment grounds is flawed, as the following two charts of official statistics provided by weakly Commitment of Traders data clearly show.

Money managers - gold
Money managers - silver

The Money Managers category is the clearest reflection in the official data of investor portfolio positions, representing sizeable mutual and hedge funds. In both cases, the number of long contracts is at historically low levels, and shorts, arguably the better reflection of money-manager sentiment, remain close to high extremes. On this basis, investor sentiment is clearly very bearish already, with the investment management community already committed to falling prices. Put very simplistically there are now more buyers than sellers.

Money Managers are in stark opposition to the Commercials, who seek to transfer entrepreneurial risk to Money Managers and other investor and speculator categories. The official statistics break Commercials down into two categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, and Swap Dealers. Both categories include the activities of bullion banks, which in practice supply liquidity to the market. Because investors and speculators tend to run bull positions, bullion banks acting as market-makers will in aggregate always be short. A successful bullion bank trader will seek to make trading profits large enough to compensate for any losses on his net short position that arise from rising prices.

A bullion bank trader must avoid carrying large short positions if in his judgement prices are likely to rise. He will be more relaxed about maintaining a bear position in falling markets. Crucially, he must keep these opinions private, and the release of market statistics are designed to accommodate these dealers’ need for secrecy.

Bullion banks’ position details are disclosed at the beginning of every month in the Bank Participation Reports, again official statistics. They are broken down into two categories, based on the individual bank’s self-description on the CFTC’s Form 40, into US and Non-US Banks. Their positions are shown in the next two charts (note the time scale is monthly).
Gold - bank net shorts
Silver - bank net shorts

In both gold and silver, the bullion banks have managed to reduce their exposure from extreme net short over the last four months. The reduction of their market exposure suggests that they have been deliberately transferring this risk to other parties, and is consistent with an anticipation that bullion prices will rise. It is the other side of the high level of bearishness reflected in the Money Manager category shown in the first two charts. The bullion banks control the market; the Money Managers are merely tools of their trade.

There has been little reduction in open interest in gold and it has remained strong in silver, because risk has been transferred rather than extinguished. Daily official statistics on open interest are provided by the exchange and summarised in the next two charts (note that data is daily).
Gold - open interest
Silver - open interest

From these charts it can be seen that recent declines in the gold price are failing to reduce open interest further, and in silver open interest remains stubbornly high. Therefore, attempts by bullion banks to reduce their net short exposure by marking prices down are showing signs of failure.

We can therefore conclude that investor sentiment is at bearish extremes and the bullion banks have reduced their net short exposure to levels where it risks rising again. Therefore the downside for precious metals prices appears to be severely limited, contrary to sentiments expressed by technical analysts and in the media.

This market position is against a background of a growing shortage of physical bullion, which is our next topic.

Physical markets

Casual observers of precious metal prices are generally unaware that the headline writers focus on activity in the futures markets and generally ignore developments in physical bullion. This is consistent with the fact that market data is available in the former, while dealing in the latter is secretive. However, as with icebergs, it is not what you see above the water that matters so much as that which is out of sight below.

It is not often understood in investment circles that gold and silver are commodities for which the laws of supply and demand are not overridden by investor psychology. Therefore, if the price falls, demand increases. Indeed, the increase in demand has far outweighed selling by nervous investors; even before the price-drop, demand for both silver and gold significantly exceeded supply. Evidence ranges from readily available statistics on record demand for newly-minted gold and silver coins and the net accumulation of gold by non-Western central banks, to trade-based information such as imports and exports of non-monetary gold as well as reports from trade associations reporting demand in diverse countries such as India, China, the UK, US, Japan and even Australia.

All this evidence points in the same direction: that physical demand is increasing on every price drop. There is therefore a growing pricing conflict between futures and forward markets, which do not generally involve settlement but the rolling-over of speculative positions, and of the underlying physical metal. Furthermore, analysts make the mistake of looking at gold purely in terms of mining and scrap supply, when nearly all gold ever mined is theoretically available to the market, in the right conditions and at the right price. The other side of this larger coin is that if the price of gold is suppressed by activity in paper markets to below what it would otherwise be, the stimulus for physical demand, being based on a 160,000 tonne market, is likely to be considerably greater on a given price drop than analysts who are myopic beyond 2,750 tonnes of annual mine production might expect. The numbers that are available confirm this to have been the case, particularly over the last few weeks, with reports from all over the world of an unprecedented surge in demand.

This is at the root of a developing crisis of which few commentators are as yet aware. Demand for physical has accelerated the transfer of bullion from capital markets to hoarders everywhere and from the West’s capital markets to other countries, which has been the trend since the oil crisis in the mid-Seventies. This is what’s behind an acute shortage of physical gold in capital markets, explaining perhaps why bullion banks feel the need to reduce their short positions.

While we can detail their exposure in futures markets, meaningful statistics are not available in over-the-counter forward markets, particularly for London, which dominates this form of trading. Forwards are considerably more flexible than futures as a trading medium, generating trading profits, commissions, fees and collateralised banking business. The ability to run unallocated client accounts, whereby a client’s gold is taken onto a bank’s balance sheet, is in stable market conditions an extremely profitable activity, made more profitable by high operational gearing. The result is that paper forward positions are many multiples of the physical bullion available. The extent of this relationship between physical bullion and paper is not recorded, but judging by the daily turnover in London there is an enormous synthetic short physical position. For this reason a sharply rising price would be catastrophic and any drain on bullion supplies rapidly escalates the risk.

Overseeing this market is the Bank of England co-operating with other Western central banks and the Bank for International Settlements, whose combined interest obviously favours price stability. They have been quick to supply the market if needed, confirmed by freely-admitted leasing operations in the past, and by secretive supply into the market, which has been detected by independent supply and demand analysis over the last 15 years. Furthermore, as currency-issuing banks, central banks are unlikely to take kindly to market signals that suggest gold is a better store of value than their own paper money.

We can only speculate about day-to-day interventions by Western central banks in gold markets. In this regard it seems that the slide in prices on the 12th and 15th April was triggered by a very large seller of paper gold; if this market story and the amount mentioned are correct, it can only be central bank intervention, acting to deliberately drive prices lower. Given the market position, with Money Managers in the futures markets already short and highly vulnerable to a bear squeeze, the story seems credible. The objective would be to persuade holders of physical ETFs and allocated gold accounts to sell and supply the market, on the assumption that they would behave as investors convinced the bull market is over.

Conclusions

For the last 40 years gold bullion ownership has been migrating from West to elsewhere, mostly the Middle East and Asia, where it is more valued. The buyers are not investors, but hoarders less complacent about the future for paper currencies than the West’s banking and investment community. There was a shortage of physical metal in the major centres before the recent price fall, which has only become more acute, fully absorbing ETF and other liquidation, which is small in comparison to the demand created by lower prices. If the fall was engineered with the collusion of central banks it has backfired spectacularly.

The time when central banks will be unable to continue to manage bullion markets by intervention has probably been brought closer. They will face having to rescue the bullion banks from the crisis of rising gold and silver prices by other means, if only to maintain confidence in paper currencies. Any gold held by struggling eurozone nations, theoretically available to supply markets as a stop-gap, will not last long and may have been already sold.

This will likely develop into another financial crisis at the worst possible moment, when central banks are already being forced to flood markets with paper currency to keep interest rates down, banks solvent, and to finance governments’ day-to-day spending. Its importance is that it threatens more than any other of the various crises to destabilise confidence in government-backed currencies, bringing an early end to all attempts to manage the others systemic problems.

History might judge April 2013 as the month when through precipitate action in bullion markets Western central banks and the banking community finally began to lose control over all financial markets.

金價全周彈4% 15個月最勁

hk.finance.yahoo.com

(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)黃金價格走勢 反覆,上周五受到獲利沽盤影響,國際金價偏軟,但全周仍大幅反彈超過4%,是15個月來最大的單周升幅。不過,由「沽神」鮑爾森等持有打賭黃金價上升的黃 金交易所基金,本月大幅減低實金持倉量達6.3%,至僅2294公噸,最大的SPDR黃金交易所基金(ETF)持金量,則為09年以來的低位。市場擔心內 地五一黃金周假期,或令支持金價的買盤量減少。

鮑爾森目前持有2180萬份SPDR,涉及價值達31億美元,到底他會否在早前減持以避免損失擴大,亦左右金價未來去向。

  印度和中國的實金散戶,在金價大跌市後入市搶購黃金,對金價過去9日有力支持。除此之外,對沖基金趁黃金大跌,在低位入市購入黃金期貨合約,根據美國商品期貨交易委員會的資料,對賭黃金的期貨及期權合約,已升至1個月以來高位,達61579張。

美國上季經濟增長遜預期,數據強化黃金的避險地位,現貨金價上周五曾顯著漲逾1%;隨後反覆回落,尾段報每盎司1462.06美元,倒跌5.78美元,跌0.39%;期金價收市跌8.4美元,跌0.57%,報每盎司1453.60美元。

上周全周計,現貨金和期金分別上漲超過4%,為去年1月以來最大單周升幅。

  現貨金價在4月12日和15日合共暴跌213美元,即14%之多,過去9交易日金價有7日報升。與4月16日的每盎司1321.95美元的2年低位比較,金價已彈140美元,收復大部分失地;距離每盎司1561.45美元的大跌市前水位,尚相差6.36%。

  金價由03年開始升浪至今,已吸引不少中央銀行增加黃金儲備,俄羅斯於上月底黃金儲備增加4.7噸,至超過981.6噸,是連續第5個月增持。土耳其連續第4個月增加黃金儲備,共增持33噸,至408.8噸。南韓於2月也增持黃金20噸,至104噸。

世界黃金協會指,全球央行去年增加了534.6噸的黃金儲備,增幅為近半個世紀來最高,預計全球央行今年將繼續購買450至550噸黃金,以現價計將高達253億美元。

趁低吸納 金價一周彈4%

再睇多次, 摩通沽金好似是真的 !

昨晚在睇呢份文章, 本來想貼不過因為太長, 所以放棄 ! 大家可以自去睇真相 :

Jamie Dimon Has Issues (or Meet The Idiot Selling Gold)

作者認為大笨蛋先會沽金俾東方國家可以乘機買平金 !

J P Morgan has fumbled ownership of 1,966,000 Troy ounces of gold since February 1.  That’s 74% more gold than the US mint delivered through its American Eagle program in all of 2012.  I mention this because there’s little doubt in my mind that the US government is one of JPM’s gold “customers.”  So (if I am correct) the same US government who just let the Morgue dump its gold on the COMEX floor will once again be suspending gold sales to peasants.
Maybe Jamie Dimon figures he’ll buy back all that gold on the cheap when the rest of the world realizes how smart he is.  Or maybe he’s once again displaying that his firm doesn’t have the slightest idea what “hedging” is and is teetering on the brink of collapse.  That would explain the April 11th meeting between President Obama and the Pig 5 bank CEOs, wouldn’t it?  And you just have to get a little misty that Lloyd Blankfein was nice enough to provide some hot-air cover for his competitor, don’t you?
One thing’s very clear: When it comes to selling physical gold, J P Morgan is acting alone.  The 130 contracts NOT delivered by JPM in the last three months (of which  110 were fromABN AMRO) are but a footnote.  If Jamie’s right, he’ll look like a genius in a few months, if not he should be able to recycle his quote regarding the infamous “London Whale” losses: “Just because we’re stupid, doesn’t mean everybody else was.”  Time will tell.
 
蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】期金價格上周五雖然跌市收場,但由於金價過去兩周跌幅驚人,吸引投資者及用家趁低吸納,現貨金及6月期金上星期全周均累升超過4%,現貨 金價重上每盎斯1,460美元水平。而期金全周升幅達4.2%,是五周以來首次錄得升幅。

摩通三個月沽金200萬噸

金價上周五走勢反覆,由於美國首季國內生產總值(GDP)僅增長2.5%,較市場預期遜色,更有分析指這可能已是今年的亮點,令人擔心美國經濟增長勢頭不 能持續,加上數據肯定聯儲局仍然無法提早退市,刺激現貨金價呈強,一度升17.63美元至1,485.5美元的即市高位,惟尾市後勁不繼,收市跌 0.39%,報1,462.09美元。
此外,資深博客Mark McHugh引述芝加哥商品期貨交易所(CME)數據指,由2月1日至今的3個月,摩根大通共沽出近200萬噸黃金,佔實物金市場交易的99.3%,或為 今次金價大跌的元凶之一。他補充,摩通期間沽出的黃金數量,相等於美國鑄幣局去年發售鷹揚金幣總數的74%。

美股方面,由於大部份美企均公佈不錯的業績,道指及標普全周計分別累升1.1%及1.7%,報14712點及1582點,納指全周更升2.3%,報 3279點,主要受到重磅股微軟股價上升6.8%帶動,然而,納指今年以來僅升8.6%,仍跑輸升幅均逾一成的兩大美股指數。

IPO國債期貨加入搶錢族

文匯報

除了央行不斷正回購和巨量的A股再融資外,一直以來傳言啟動新股IPO和國債期貨,正如泰山壓頂般高高地懸在A股市場頭上,嚇得許多投資者不敢參與交易,令A股成交量大幅萎縮。
600企業擬IPO籌萬億 

 儘管中國證監會目前仍未對何時啟動新股IPO明確表態,深圳某知名券商一投行總經理表示,證券市場 長時間沒有新股IPO的話,那是不正常的。他預計,內地在5至6月有可能啟動新股IPO。儘管財務核查已經嚇退了160餘家企業,但仍有多達600家公司 計劃IPO,這一數量相當巨大,其融資金額近萬億元。而且中證監為了抑制市場炒作,將有數十家新股批量上市。正是市場擔憂IPO啟動分流市場資金,因而令 許多投資者擔心和害怕,所以導致2月中旬至4月中旬以來滬指下挫了逾10%。

國債期貨低門檻吸散戶 

與新股IPO類似的是,市場傳言國債期貨擬4月推出,儘管暫時落空了,但是未來並不排除推出的可能。因為國債期貨交易的一手合約保證金僅3萬元,較股指期 貨高達50萬元的門檻要低很多,從而會吸引絕大多數的A股投資者參與到國債期貨中來,這將對A股市場資金的分流遠遠超過股指期貨。因此,這也是投資者對重 啟國債期貨的擔憂所在。早在1995年5月18日,內地關閉國債期貨市場,A股便出現連續3天暴漲的「5.18井噴行情」。從中看出國債期貨對股市的影 響,而現在國債現貨的規模達到近8萬億元,總量巨大,其啟動對A股帶來的衝擊也會是相當大的。

迎掃金豪客 商場五一掘金

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 梁悅琴)一連3天的五一小黃金周明日開始,人民幣兌美元匯率再創匯改新高,內地客來香港消費等於打八折,加上近期金價下跌掀掃金熱,本港各大商場瞄準商機 齊吸金。新鴻基地產於觀塘apm、尖沙咀新太陽廣場及大埔超級城會組織35至45團內地點對點購物團,合共約1,750至2,200人來港血拚,預期此3 天的生意額可按年上升15%至20%。
1881人流消費料升20% 

 長實尖沙咀「1881」則以「Royal Wisdom」為設計主題,將偌大的「1881」露天廣場打造成巨型國際象棋棋盤,其中高約15呎的國王與皇后棋子更鑲滿寶石。長實地產投資董事黃思行預料五一長假期的人流及消費額將按年上升約20%。 

大埔超級城辦掃金團 

 新地代理租務總經理馮秀炎表示,觀塘apm會組織20至25團,合計1,000至1,200名來自 廣州、深圳、東莞的電玩達人團,預計4月29至5月1日,僅3日人流可達120萬,按年升10%至15%。至於旅客人均消費料達8,000至15,000 元,為商場額外帶來800萬至1,500萬元消費額,按年升15%至20%。 

 新地高級推廣經理陳淑衡亦表示,大埔超級城會有5個旅客掃金購物團,到場內8個珠寶商戶,每團約 50人,主要來自深圳、東莞及廣州,將安排專人帶領及講解不同金飾的款式及價格,預計平均單價達3萬至5萬元,最高消費金額20萬元。同系於尖沙咀新太陽 廣場擁有多個皮具服裝店及化妝品牌,會舉辦扮靚團,邀請廣東省不同企業的白領來港購物。他預計,小黃金周3日假期,大埔超級城及新太陽廣場合共舉辦15至 20團旅客購物團,合計約750至1,000人,旅客人均消費料達6,500至3萬元,按年升10至15%,為兩個商場額外帶來逾1,200萬元的消費 額,按年升15至20%。 

 九龍灣MegaBox總監文靜芝表示,MegaBox將於4月29日至5月11日舉辦 「2013 Mega Ice 五人冰球賽」,料將帶動約5,000名旅客人流,當中包括千多名內地旅客,預計人流及營業額比去年同期上升逾25%。MegaBox又與工銀亞洲合作,為 工銀亞洲信用卡客戶提供購物消費3重賞,預料參與商戶的營業額將同比升逾20%,人均消費約3,000元至5,000元。
零售貨值或高單位數增 

 交通銀行香港分行環球金融市場部經濟及策略師何文俊表示,內地H7N9禽流感疫情料對「五一黃金周」期間本港零售業表現影響有限,主要是在「搶金潮」支持下,可刺激部分高檔消費品的表現,他預測,五一零售貨值按年有高單位數增長,甚至雙位數增長。

自動削支拖累 美經濟或明年始回暖

文匯報

美國前日公布今年首季國內生產總值(GDP)增長2.5%,較外界預期的3%增幅遜色,反映3月生效的聯邦自動削支影響浮面。由於削支機制持續數月甚至數年,國會預算辦公室早前已預計,本年美經濟增長減少近半個百分點,料經濟延至明年才有望提振。
 美元兌日圓前日由99.29跌至97.99。美股前日收市大多走低,回吐上周部分升幅,標準普爾500指數收報1,582點,跌2點,結束連升5個交易日;納斯達克綜合指數收報3,279點,跌10點;道瓊斯工業平均指數收報14,712點,升11點。

靠消費庫存支撐 料維持QE規模 

 首季GDP增長主要來自個人消費和庫存累積,個人消費更錄得2010年底以來最大增幅,貢獻整體增 幅2.2個百分點;淨出口和政府開支表現最差,成為增長「逆風」,亦反映自動削支的威力。白宮經濟顧問委員會主席克魯格表示,聯邦國防開支收縮,拖累整體 增長減少0.6個百分點。 

 聯儲局將於周二起舉行一連兩日議息會議,料維持現有的量化寬鬆(QE)規模,每月繼續購買850 億美元(約6,598億港元)債券。富國基金管理投資組合策略師雅各布森認為,聯儲局官員未有足夠數據證明應改變政策,「預料9月前不會減慢買債步伐」。 不過另有分析指,美國經濟正朝可持續方向發展,局方可能採取較中立貨幣政策,回應鷹派聲音。 

拍債規模或減 5大行大減儲備 

 儘管經濟增長失色,但同日公布的湯森路透/密歇根大學4月底消費者信心指數則高於預期。市場同樣關注本周歐洲央行議息,以及美國4月份失業率等重要經濟數據。美財政部周三會公布拍賣3年期、10年期及30年期國債的規模,有分析師估計會是3年來首次減少。
 另外,美國5大銀行摩根大通、美銀、花旗、富國和美國合眾銀行首季盈利共195億美元(約1,513億港元),但當中50億美元(約388億港元)是從儲備基金抽調。有分析師指,在低息環境下,減少儲備基金無可厚非,不過數額之大將引起監管當局關注。 

■法新社/路透社/彭博通訊社/《華盛頓郵報》/英國《金融時報》/《華爾街日報》/CNBC

2013年4月27日 星期六

市場專家

金銀市是否行入熊市 ?

本人認為沒是, 因為市場突然出現好多睇淡專家, 就連媽媽網都有 :

www.baby-kingdom.com

其實盡量忍下手

而家黃金跌市才剛開始

歐洲大國逐步減持黃金

散戶見跌完又升返小小就立即搶金

真係中正下懷

完全配合大戶空金策略

從技術分析睇

黃金十年牛市已玩完

剛先開始步入熊市

你要知道黃金一旦走入熊市會歷時十年或以上

中線將見1100

長線可能跌至600-900美金

即係大約仲會跌多現價一半

呢幾日估計只係技術反彈

唔升穿1600都無運行

如果現價買又真係步入熊市

你之後見又跌但又唔放

咁真係要等最少20年後才回家鄉

最慘係中途無利息

股票都仲話有小小息收

英法聯軍進京 毀圓明園搶掠

蘋果日報

圓明園歷經150多年修建,是清朝最有氣勢、融中西園林文化於一體的皇家園林,但建成不久即遭外國侵略者洗劫破壞。第一次是1856年爆發的第二次鴉片戰爭,英法聯軍由南向北進攻,於1860年進犯北京。聯軍以他們的俘虜曾被關在圓明園受虐為由,10月6日開進圓明園報復。
英法聯軍入園後大肆洗劫, 並縱火焚燒圓明園,大火三日不滅,包括12生肖獸首在內,園中無數珍寶被洗劫一空,宮中300名太監、宮女、工匠葬身火海。法軍一名繙譯官曾在手記中描繪聯軍搶劫情景:士兵蜂擁而上,爭先恐後,互相扭打,帶走戰利品,日光被大火濃雲籠罩,恍如持久的日食,周圍一片黑暗。這次洗掠,圓明園絕大部份珍寶被搶走,木質建築及樹木被燒毀。

四年後的1900年,英、法、德、美、日、俄、意、奧等八國聯軍又以「平剿義和團」為由進犯北京,再度洗劫圓明園,殘餘陳設被洗劫,大量古樹被砍伐,佔地5,000多畝的皇家園林,徹底成為廢墟。

《蘋果》記者

潑污黨偷商人62萬財物

又一單潑污黨,先整污你件衫,之後會扮好心人幫你去清洗乘機偷野 !

還要記住, 財不露眼 !


蘋果日報

【尖沙嘴】
【本報訊】27歲內地商人,前晚攜值40萬元名牌意大利手提袋由澳門來港惹潑污黨垂涎,在尖沙嘴中港城商場遭潑污黨濺污其外套,並假扮好心將他騙往廁所清理期間,乘機偷走其載有逾22萬港元及人民幣的手提袋,商人共損失62萬元財物。
事主姓張,報稱商人,他失去的鱷魚皮手提袋為意大利名牌Stefano Ricci,報稱以約40萬港元購置,袋內載有20萬元港幣、15,000元人民幣,以及一部平板電腦;賊人年約30至40歲,約1.7米高、瘦身材、戴鴨舌帽、穿牛仔褲。

前晚10時許,張從澳門乘船來港,在尖沙嘴中港城碼頭登岸後步出商場,此時,一名戴鴨舌帽男子趨近,聲稱其外套背後沾有污迹,並指引事主到公廁清理污迹及假 意協助,事主不虞步入廁所後,將手提袋放在身旁,但在脫下外套清潔時,發覺手提袋失去,該男子不知所終,疑他偷去報警。

2013年4月26日 星期五

How many troy ounces in a tonne of gold?

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_troy_ounces_in_a_tonne_of_gold

1 tonne of gold = 32150 troy ounces (oz)


Troy Ounce:
The traditional unit of weight for precious metals and gems.
1 troy ounce = 480 grains
1 troy ounce = 24 scruples
1 troy ounce = 20 pennyweights (North American jewelery trade)
1 troy ounce = 1.097 ordinary ounce
1 troy ounce = 8 drams
1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams.
1 troy ounce = 120 carats
1 troy ounce = 155.52 metric carats (diamonds / precious stones).
3.75 troy ounces = 10 tolas (Indian sub-continent)
6.02 troy ounces = 5 taels (Hong Kong)
12 troy ounce=1 troy pound
14.583 troy ounce =16 avoirdupois ounce (1Pound)
32.15 troy ounces = 1 kilogramme (Kilo)
32,150 troy ounces = 1 metric ton (1,000 kilos)
1000 troy ounces = 31.1 kilograms


www.goldcalculator.com

基金經理 圓桌會議: 黃金未變爛銅

俾 King World News 和 Silver Doctors 班人見到呢篇文, 一定笑掉牙 !


蘋果日報

Tony:這陣子睇報紙,飾金賣到斷市,你們怎看金價?
Eddie:整 個跌勢,主要是由於GLD(SPDR黃金ETF,2840)沽,另外就是一些ETP,類似是ETF的投資產品斬倉,推倒金價。我早排計過數,每噸黃金相等 於3.5萬盎斯。GLD有150噸,如果沽15%出來,計番條數。每個師奶大約每人買一盎斯,也要30至40萬個師奶接貨。基本上,是大戶對散戶之戰,大戶一邊賣,印度及中國的散戶去吸納。
Tony:如果從基本因素,怎看金價未來走勢?

心理因素主導價格

Charles:金其實無基本因素可言,是一種無息率、無return的投資產品。黃金的生產成本是每盎斯數百美元,以每盎斯市價千幾美元賣出去,生產商賺取差價。實際上, 工業用途佔金的需求不到2%至3%,那到底怎樣釐定金價是每盎斯賣1,600、2,000、或是10,000美元。其實,純粹是心理因素。
Raymond:過去上千年,各地政府利用黃金來支持貨幣基礎。政府要控制金,才能控制貨幣。但整個制度的主要問題,是黃金數量有限。萬一貨幣增長,追不上經濟、人口增長,經濟就會通縮,這是近百年常見的情況。
所以,至近年放棄金本位,去到法定貨幣制度,萬一貨幣追不上經濟、人口增長,就改用央行印鈔,增加貨幣供應。這種政策其實是work,怕就怕央行亂印銀紙, 無人相信銀紙。有一種講法,去估計未來環球的貨幣會否返去金本位政策。如果真的有這一天,將全球銀紙除以黃金,一盎斯黃金可能要幾萬美金。
Eddie:過去黃金與美元走勢相反,是anti-dollar trade。但現在,黃金的走勢與美元、美股方向一致。
中國、香港股市咁差。另一方面,美國股市好,美國貨幣地位毫不動搖,反映Ultra-Keynesian(超級凱恩斯陣營)的經濟政策,Fiat money(法定貨幣)大獲全勝。是香港未夠實力,先要找美元去支持港紙。美國利用軍事實力,已足夠支持自己貨幣。
我唔覺得,黃金會狂散。我覺得,最近人肉長城是有意思。對於歐洲人、美國人來講,黃金已經不是唯一安全資產,他們可以持有美元。但中國人依然需要安全資產,可能有幾百萬人有買黃金的需求。
Charles:當有錢人有百億身家,可以放在任何地方,不一定是黃金。黃金對這班有錢人的吸引力下降。中國、越南則唔同,隨時有人走佬,要有黃金資產。其實,香港個個結婚的人,屋企都有幾萬蚊金,這個習慣是上一代教落。
Tony:應唔應該撈底?
Raymond:我覺得博唔過,因為黃金剛剛轉勢。
Eddie:現時的情況,是第一浸的血肉長城,500個牌頂一個大戶,通常散戶都會受傷先。

無限量寬下的日股

Tony:近月,日本央行對貨幣貶值的態度轉得很快,事前好像無先兆。
Charles:我記得,以前睇韓國市場的時候。韓圜就有個(滙價)目標,韓圜兌日圓,Mark實是十兌一。日圓跌,韓圜自然跟位跌。但近年日圓不斷升,韓圜沒有跟住,韓國 的鋼鐵、汽車行業,突然執了個大便宜。日本的增長,全部轉由韓國接收。現在日圓回落,對日本算是利好。你話買今次QE,央行能谷到通脹。即使如此,(日本 經濟)是否真正解決問題?唔係。
Tony:但最近新聞報道,日本人出街買嘢多了,是真好。
Raymond:一半一半,其實有不少人存疑,認為可能是虛火。目前,可見的是股市升了。大家都信有些東西轉變。以前政府好多改革,因為日本央行不配合,無法實行。這次央行出手,大家準備有變,可能是變差、或變好。共識是必定有變。
Eddie:最 明顯的變化是酒店full晒,個個都要去睇下發生乜嘢事。我之前聽野村的睇法,幾有意思。要搞好日本經濟,需要三隻腳配合,央行印銀紙只是一隻腳,第二要 看安倍政府的財政政策是否配合。但最近,安倍講緊增加銷售稅,這有點矛盾。第三件事,就是私人公司配合,這是最難的。大家都underweight日本, 就是因為太熟識日本,明白日本公司文化不易改變。
Tony:日股已升27%仲有冇得升?
Charles:大家之前睇日本睇得太差,太bearish,日本物業資產的息率回報可以有6至10厘,成本咁低,(資產物業價格)應該要double。所以要股市升這個部份可達成,但日本經濟是另一回事。唔通Sharp可以強過三星?難度很大。日本已經失去這個機會。
Rayomond:我覺得,目前日股是合理估值,前提是大家假設日本經濟不會再一直向下,一直跌到死。
Eddie:如果計基本因素,一點也不平,歷史市盈率有20多倍。而且日本公司賺錢,未必分畀股東。
Rayomond:過去十年,已經有好大轉變。日本公司有好多buyback,增加派息。而日圓跌了咁多,出口會增長。
Charles:如從資產角度看,會覺得日股好平。因日本公司都有很多資產,令市賬率看起來很便宜,但這些資產幾乎都唔郁,就算值錢也沒有交易,只是長期持有,而且回報率低,改用盈利的角度看,就覺得貴。
Eddie:我的看法,是不應太過skeptical。
日股今次升勢之後,日經挑戰15000點,絕對唔出奇。是否經濟基本面會有轉變?我唔知,但2005年一轉,也反彈40%至50%。

蔡東豪

加速國際化 人幣創新高

蘋果日報

雖然內地經濟增長輕微放緩,增幅仍遠高於傳統歐美大國,人民幣遂成為商業市場兵家必爭之地。
觀乎日前人行副行長易綱表示,短期內會擴闊人民幣每日波幅上限,加上中國與澳洲簽署人民幣兌換協議等,均可見人民幣國際化有加速迹象,昨日在岸人民幣 (CNY)亦創新高助興,兌每美元收報6.1781元人民幣。

一度衝破6.17關

人民幣昨日中間價已開出滙改新高的6.23,期後一度升破6.17,收市報6.1781新高。對此,東亞銀行(023)貨幣及利率交易部主管陳德祥表示, 近日市場對人民幣充滿信心,人民幣滙價接連創新高,日後要升破6.15相信絕不困難。他指出,人民幣滙價迭創新高,可反映市場對其國際化速度有信心。
星展香港財資市場部高級副總裁王良享認為,昨日金管局多項措施,令本港人民幣在基建及透明度上均有所增強,有望促進人民幣貸款發展,並吸引更多海外企業使用人民幣作貿易結算貨幣,從而加快人民幣國際化。
而陳德祥又指出,近日澳洲央行有意將外滙儲備組合重組,並將當中5%資金用作投資人民幣債券,加上早前簽署的人民幣直接兌換協議,有助人民幣進一步國際化。
除香港這個最大離岸人民幣市場外,現時台灣及新加坡均有人民幣清算行,據悉有不少市場有意參與人民幣清算,加上早前有傳法國央行有意與人行建立貨幣互換關係,並將巴黎打造為歐洲的重要離岸人民幣交易中心與倫敦競爭,便可知人民幣在國際化路程上有不少對手。
人行金融研究所所長金中夏昨表示,本港人民幣離岸中心地位難被其他地方取代,即使前海的金融中心亦僅屬過渡性質,一旦內地資本賬開放,其他前海地區以外地區均可能被要求發展同一個模式,而利率亦會同時走向國際化。

JPMorgan's Eligible Gold Plummets 65% In 24 Hours To All Time Low

實金銀倉庫愈來愈少實貨, 所以在大鱷推唔倒金銀市後, 可能會炒起個市, 因為向下攻唔成就向上推, 所以以為可以炒上落市的人要小心啦 !

買就一定要買實貨, 之後坐定定睇大戲 !


www.zerohedge.com

The Gold Rally

Martin Amstrong 說, 預計下星期金價會繼續升至 1503, 而1521會是重要阻力位 !

都說 Martin Amstrong 是短炒友啦 ! 用乜短炒 ? 當然是紙啦 !


armstrongeconomics.com

Gold closed on June at 1467.5. We should see a rally continue into early next week to retest the main channel from which it broke  at the 1503 area. The important system resistance starts at 1521.

金銀大反彈



2013年4月25日 星期四

不幸喪命 層樓仲要唔要供?

蘋果日報

四川雅安地震,不單止奪去很多條寶貴性命,更摧毀很多人的安樂窩。據《羊城晚報》報道指,震央區域中,約一半房屋已經倒塌,損毀嚴重。不過,千萬唔好以為,層樓倒塌就唔駛繼續供,銀行一樣會追你還錢。

報道引述律師解釋,如果間屋冧咗,但根據法律規定,貸款人仍然有義務還錢,仲要還埋息,即係無論你幾慘,每個月都要繼續還錢畀銀行。

但大家有無諗過,如果間屋無冧到,不過人就死咗,仲洗唔洗還錢呢?律師就解釋,根據《繼承法》規定,間屋就會變成遺產,繼承人只需要用死者遺產去償還生前債務,就算還唔晒,繼承人都唔洗孭起筆數。

周大福徹查龍鳳鐲生銹

蘋果日報

有媒體昨日引述內地網民的微博指,有江蘇的消費者,在百貨公司內的周大福(1929)購買龍鳳鐲後,不久手鐲竟出現生銹情況,投訴後當地的周大福員工只回應說「黃金本來就會氧化」。本報昨向周大福查詢是否確有其事,發言人指公司已留意到有關報道,並為此展開調查,但由於過程需時,稍後有結果會作出回應。

原來是用者唔識保存 !


蘋果日報

近日金價急跌,龍鳯鐲被搶斷市,要讓龍鳳鐲持久光亮,周大福珠寶(1929)執行董事陳世昌教路,放進保險箱時,不要直接與保險箱接觸,以免氧化變色。

近日網上傳出,有江蘇消費者買了周大福的龍鳳鐲出現「生銹」情況,陳世昌接受本報專訪時解釋,龍鳯鐲在生產工藝過程中,需要加入焊粉,而在打磨過程中,亦要加入一些藥水。

當 龍鳳鐲接觸空氣中一些元素,會產生化學作用令龍鳳鐲變紅、變紫以至於白,這些都是正常現象,「兩、三個月就會發生一宗」。遇上這情況,周大福會為客戶提供 三項售後服務選擇。第一是為金飾「還原」,將金飾火燒再打磨,就會回復昔日靚樣,不另收費,除非金飾已用舊變形。第二是換過另一隻金鐲,重量當然要求一 致。第三是退回款項。而那位蘇州消費者選擇了換過另外一隻,這已是數個月前的個案。

為避免上述現象的發生,他教授保存龍鳳鐲秘笈。龍鳳鐲平時最好原位保留在金飾盒內,然後才放進保險箱,避免金鐲直接接觸保險箱;女士們配帶龍鳳鐲時,最好先化妝,噴香水,然後才戴上金飾。

搶斷貨鷹揚金幣停售

蘋果日報

【本報訊】金價上周急挫後,全球用家視之為趁低吸納良機,東南亞、日本、印度,中東等地早前出現的搶金熱潮淹至美國,美國鑄幣局(U.S Mint)昨日就宣佈,由於需求激增導致存貨劇減,該局本周起暫停銷售十分之一盎斯的鷹揚金幣,是2009年11月以來首次暫停金幣產品的銷售。
金價上周一跌至每盎斯1,335.75美元的兩年低位後,較前年9月新高的1,921.15美元回落約30%,是黃金經歷12年大牛市後罕有的大跌市,觸發全球出現搶金潮。

今年銷量急升118%

美國鑄幣局透露,自上周一起,由於零售客戶四出搶購,鷹揚金幣庫存消耗得很快,其中十分一盎斯鷹揚金幣今年來的銷量按年增加118%,在存貨無多情況下, 惟有暫停銷售,直到存貨補充為止。其他如一盎斯、四分一盎斯及半盎斯的鷹揚金幣,仍維持正常銷售。
據當地主要的金幣代理商Tordella& Brookes透露,無論是零售或批發層面,近日多了很多舊客及新客落單,令他們應接不暇,已有一段日子沒有這樣忙過。
金價方面,由於塞浦路斯財長Harris Georgiades派定心丸,指沽售黃金儲備並非該國解決債務危機的首選方法,加上前周唱淡黃金的高盛雖然仍看淡金價長線前景,但相信短期已見底,故已平掉早前的淡倉,為金價帶來支持,現貨金昨日最多升21.25美元或1.5%,報每盎斯1,434.25美元。

周大福叫停員工內部買金

儘管金價已略有反彈,但本港的搶金浪潮仍未有退卻迹象,三間主要珠寶商周大福(1929)、周生生(116)及六福(590)仍然出現貨品短缺情況。
據悉,周大福分店補貨次數,已由以往每日1次增至平均3次,但金飾一上架即被搶購一空,令貨品持續出現短缺。集團近日已宣佈停止中、港兩地員工的內部自購,要預留貨品做生意。
下周29日至5月1日為內地五一黃金周假期,料有大批自由行抵港。據悉,周大福上星期中位於順德的工廠已開始加班,以一般生產到上架最快一星期計算,近日貨品供應量已顯著提升,相信黃金周仍會「夠貨賣」。
六福主席黃偉常坦言,儘管工場已通宵加班,仍擔心會出現「有客無金賣」情況。「自金價下滑以來,黃金的銷量是以倍數咁增長,黃金周表現會點,好視乎呢幾日金價點走。如果金價仲持續反彈,可能銷售都冇咁火爆;但如果又跌返啲,咁就真喺會好多人湧嚟買喇。」

金匯出擊:沽金未消 金價反彈後整固

文匯報

英皇金融集團(香港)總裁 黃美斯 

 塞浦路斯財長Harris Georgiades表示,本月達成國際救助協議後,塞浦路斯並未將出售黃金儲備視為優先考慮方案,當前正在評估可以滿足協議的所有方案。 Georgiades也表示,他預計貨幣管控將在「數日或數周內」鬆綁。塞浦路斯為獲取救助而同意出售價值4億歐元的黃金儲備,本月稍早在歐洲市場造成驚 擾。塞浦路斯售金數量不大,但這創下歐元區國家央行被迫出售部分儲備的先例,推動金價創下30年來最大跌幅。投資人擔心還有一些經濟規模更大、也處於掙扎 的歐元區國家,最後也可能得步上塞浦路斯的後塵。不過儘管Georgiades表示出售黃金是該國對國際貸款方的幾項承諾之一,但他也表示,那並非優先議 題。 

黃金ETF持金降至1097噸 

 倫敦黃金周二下跌,終止了之前連續五個交易日的升勢,美元上漲令金價承壓。商品市場整體走弱,中國 PMI數據疲弱,歐洲採購經理指數(PMI),特別是德國的數據不佳,拉低了銅,銀,以至鉑金和鈀金等商品的價格,黃金也跟隨下跌。在紐約時段,有關白宮 發生爆炸的虛假報道一度導致金市、股市、債市、油市和其他商品市場大幅震盪。金價因上述虛假報道而短暫從低位反彈。另外,全球最大的黃金上市交易基金 (ETF)的黃金持有量急速下降,突顯投資人轉投股票和其他資產。該ETF截至4月23日的黃金持倉量進一步下降至1,097.09噸。資料顯示,3月初 持倉量仍為1,254噸。 

 技術走勢而言,隨著RSI及隨機指數亦自超賣區域回升,及擺脫了1,400美元關口之掣肘,或見 黃金短期呈喘穩。上周一金價曾先後反彈的兩個高位1,459及1,493美元,將會為後市較大之阻力依據。另外,計算其反彈幅度,亦可以黃金比率推算,自上周1,590美元起始之跌幅,50%及61.8%之反彈將可看至1,455及1,488美元。更為關鍵的,估計1,500美元關口仍將會是一個重要阻力。金價已連續五個交易日反彈,幅度逾110美元,於周一的上行暫見受限於9天平均線,估計若金價未可持穩其上,則可能會先行作一段技術整固,較近支撐預估在1,414及1,398美元,下一級可看至1,380美元。

 全球最大白銀ETF iShares Silver Trust截至4月23日的白銀持倉量為10,318.82噸,較上日大幅減少近132噸。 

白銀超賣反彈力弱 

 倫敦白銀自上周以來之走勢僅在24美元關口下方爭持整固。雖然RSI及隨機指數均已走至20美元下 方之超賣區域,但未足以可預示銀價有超賣後反彈之動力;若要確認銀價可作較大幅度之反彈,則需要價位進一步突破24美元關口,之後面臨反彈阻力預料為 24.50及24.80美元水平;進一步阻力則可看至25.82美元。至於下方較近支撐可參考22.80美元,更為關鍵支撐應在上周二險守著的22美元水 平,預料破位延伸下試水準將會達至21.10及更為重要的20美元心理關口。

澳洲5%外儲買中國債

文匯報

香港文匯報訊  澳大利亞在增進與最大貿易夥伴中國的關係方面邁出新的一步。根據兩國最新達成的協議,澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)將首次獲准投資中國主權債券。澳大利亞央行表示,將把最多5%的外匯資產——接近20億澳元(約21億美元)投資於中國國債。

中澳經濟聯繫更緊密 

 據《華爾街日報》及路透社報道,澳大利亞央行副行長Philip Lowe昨日在上海向商界人士表示,計劃在中國配置5%的外匯資產,可能年底前就能完成;中國央行已經批准了初步投資額度,雙方正在就投資前的必要協議進行磋商。
 「這反映出中澳兩國經濟聯繫進一步拓寬,金融關係愈發緊密;這讓澳洲方面的投資可以更加分散,並且 有助於我們對中國金融市場的理解。」Lowe補充稱,人民幣有可能成為該地區的重要儲備貨幣。這將是素來保守的澳洲央行首次直接投資日本以外亞洲國家的主 權債市場。兩國央行此前達成了一項規模300億澳元的流動性互換協議以支持跨境金融交易。
 澳洲央行目前外匯儲備382億澳元(約392億美元),配置情況為:45%美國資產、45%歐洲資產,5%日本資產以及5%的加拿大資產。當前,澳大利亞對中國的出口佔到該國總出口的30%。兩國領導人本月初同意每年舉行一次正式會談以討論彼此間經濟關係範圍。 

中國金融體系漸成熟

 澳大利亞最大基金公司之一安保資本(AMP Capital)駐悉尼的投資組合經理Nader Naeimi稱,通過大宗商品市場,澳大利亞已經與中國建立了很強的經濟紐帶,拓寬兩國的金融紐帶是合理的;此舉也彰顯了中國作為經濟強國日益上升的重要 地位以及中國金融體系走向成熟的速度。

美國新一百美元紙幣



www.newmoney.gov
2013年10月8日開始投入市面 !

2013年4月24日 星期三

帶黃金過關出入大陸

金價下跌促使大批內地客來港買金,有人一出手就買幾十萬元,但北返卻被深圳海關扣查。羅湖和皇崗口岸近日已查獲近十宗攜帶超額黃金製品入境的個案,內地海關提醒,如超過五十克黃金及金飾,就要向海關申報徵稅,否則若被懷疑走私漏稅,要承擔法律責任。

gogoldjoe.blogspot.hk

白銀就唔可以帶多過十両過關 !

 

2013年1/10盎司鴻運金幣


2013年澳洲袋鼠金幣(又名鴻運金幣)

純度 9999
重量 1/10 盎司 = 3.1103克  
直經 16.1毫米
厚度  1.40毫米
有原廠膠盒附送

無鷹楊1/10盎司可以買袋鼠1/10盎司 ! 本人在金價沒崩時在恒生買, 1400蚊一枚, 想買的人須先打電話去問有無貨 !

迷失三年 跑輸樓金滙

蘋果日報





【敗北投資】
截至今年4月22日為止,H股指數三年累積下跌14.1%,不但跑輸恒指的正回報2.75%,更被其他類型的投資豐厚回報比下去,可見過去三年,買H股絕對是敗北的投資。

金價累升逾兩成

近年港人最熱衷的投資類別,相信為H股、物業、黃金及人民幣。若以中原城市領先指數計算,截至最新數字4月14日為止的一周計算,該指數由三年前的 78.77升至最近的120.12,升幅達到52.5%。雖然近期金價急瀉,但距離三年前仍有一定水位賺錢,以昨晚截稿前的每盎斯1,426.45美元計 算,回報亦達25%。至於人民幣滙價距今亦升值9.4%。雖然H指的三年負回報14.1%未有計算股息因素,但總回報肯定亦遠遠不及樓金滙。

自由行掃金潮未過 龍鳳鈪缺貨 工場通宵打金迎長假

蘋果日報

【本報訊】旅遊界料五一黃金周內地客會減少,零售業或受影響,但金行卻一枝獨秀,因隨金價下調,到港的內地客都湧到金行掃貨。本已嚴重缺貨的金行忙於補充 彈藥,工場甚至通宵趕製金飾,應付這場名副其實的黃金周。
記者:翁煜雄

今年11月結婚的阿欣本擬借金飾佩戴,但奶奶突要求自置龍鳳鈪,「諗住喺銅鑼灣大把金行,點知呢幾日去到冇晒貨咁滯。」她說金行多只賣剩貴價或款式欠佳的金飾,「唯有遲啲再算」。但五一黃金周逼近,她應該更沒機會買到心儀金飾。
「金價升番少少,但好多內地人要趁長假先嚟到買㗎。」金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙說,國際金價稍升至昨日每盎司約1,420美元,料黃金周徘徊1,380至 1,430美元,而今次跌價或只屬技術性調整,大有回升之勢,故仍可吸引內地客掃貨。

港數天賣出一噸金

不過,他承認未必會再現上周瘋狂搶金潮,因當時金價跌至約1,300美元,兩、三日全港已售出逾一噸黃金(價值約3.6億元),按年狂升三倍,但未來數天未必再跌至該低位,「需求仍然有,加上黃金周咁多日,可再賣一噸黃金」。他說今日再有黃金由海外運到,為金行補充彈藥,整體生意料較去年升三成。

六福主席兼行政總裁黃偉常稱,近來生意較平日多數倍,員工「做唔停手」,但已要求員工再加班應付黃金周,部份工場更不惜通宵趕製金飾應市,料生意會上升。
周生生業務營運總監劉克斌稱,逾90%內地客主攻飾金如頸鏈、龍鳳鈪,每両飾金售價雖微升至15,000多元,「但內地人攞人民幣嚟到乜嘢都係打八折喎」。 他說分店飾金多賣斷市,「有啲市民嚟訂龍鳳鈪,都要兩、三個月後先攞到貨」。他已要求工場加班,「但有啲龍鳳鈪要人手逐隻做㗎,未必夠貨賣」。

旅遊業議會主席胡兆英稱,今年內地五一假期只有三日,加上華東疫情影響當地人出遊,料每日到港團會較去年微跌至250團,而酒店預訂率迄今只有70%,較去年少10多個百分點,料自由行也減少。

張德熙:黃金熊市言之尚早

文匯報

香港文匯報訊  (記者 周紹基) 金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙指,近期金價出現技術性調整,累積跌幅達一成半,料金價短期會繼續波動,波幅介乎每盎司1,420美元至1,580美元。對於黃 金是否已踏入熊市,張德熙認為言之尚早,要視乎金價在每盎司1,400美元至1,420美元附近可支持多久。

金銀場實金近全數沽清 

 張德熙接受傳媒訪問時表示,近期金價急跌,不排除在大部分技術盤平倉後,會有新的上升動力。他認為,要判斷黃金是否進入熊市,需視乎多個因素,如果金價在低位持續橫行,加上成交量進一步收縮,才可判斷黃金已進入熊市,但事實上,黃金目前成交相當活躍。
 張德熙透露,上周金價大跌,刺激金銀業貿易場黃金成交量,上周一更高見1,600億元,相信之後交投會逐步回落到1,000億元水平。此外,實金銷情理想,貿易場的實金近乎全數沽清,貿易場已由瑞士及倫敦訂貨,今次的訂貨量比以往多四倍,以應付黃金零售商的需求。

金價年底料見2,000美元 

 他料今季金價走勢會於每盎司1,280美元至1,420美元上落,下半年會逐步上升,至年底或將高見2,000美元水平,再創新高。他認為,目前支持金價的因素包括多國推出量化寬鬆政策、日圓貶值以及歐債危機等因素,地緣政局也未見平穩,黃金仍有其避險作用。
 黃金價格上周初經歷33年最大跌幅後,已連升5個交易日,是今年以來最長的升勢。昨日截至下午7時,現貨金報1,424.7美元,升近2%。

US Mint Sells Out, Halts Sales of Fractional 1/10oz Gold Eagles!

美國鑄幣廠停鑄賣1/10盎司鷹楊金幣, 但還會有1/4盎司, 1/2盎司和1盎司的鷹楊金幣出廠 ! 美國鑄幣廠說, 比起舊年, 佢地賣出的金幣升咗100% !

Silver Doctors 預計, 美國可能好快就會停止所有金銀幣的出產 !

silverdoctors.com

*Breaking
The US Mint has just halted sales of fractional 1/10th oz gold eagles!  For now, sales continue for 1oz, 1/2 oz, and 1/4oz coins…although based on the fact that many wholesalers have already sold their next 2 months allocations forward and have now suspended sales, we suspect a complete halt for US mint gold and silver products is coming…and soon.

From Reuters:
The U.S. Mint has temporarily suspended sales of its one-tenth ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins because of inventory depletion due to strong demand, but continues to offer the one-ounce, one-half ounce and one-quarter ounce coins.

In a memo to its authorized purchases late Monday, the Mint said that gold coins sales in total ounces has been up more than 100 percent year to date over the same period last year.
 

Bill Murphy: $100+ SILVER! GOLD CARTEL & JPMORGAN TO GO LONG SILVER?

youtu.be/-vCX_W5D8VU

2013年4月23日 星期二

Goldman Closes Gold Short

高盛說, 已平咗淡倉, 因為黃金價格已上返 1400, 而依家預期黃金價格會繼續落, 因為ETF的流走和美國的復甦 !
Tyler Durden 叫大家繼續買實金實銀至高盛說已買黃金長倉 !

www.zerohedge.com



It appears Goldman (together with virtually everyone else focused on physical not paper gold) has bought enough gold from its clients. Now, there is only upside.
Goldie on gold:

We closed our short trading recommendation on gold

We have closed our recommendation to short COMEX Gold, as prices moved above the stop at $1,400/toz. We have exited the trade significantly below our original target of $1,450/toz, for a potential gain of 10.4%. The move since initiation was surprisingly rapid, likely exacerbated by the break of well-flagged technical support levels. Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists’ forecast for a reacceleration in US growth later this year.

Explains the rip in gold this morning, and why it will continue to do so consider Goldman's "bias" to keep buying more gold from its clients (especially since any forecasts of "reaccelerating" growth now merely spark bouts of uncontrollable laughter). Buy until Goldman says to go long.



洪灝:巴塞爾Ⅲ有望推動金價上漲

Ffinance.caixin.com

2012年11月26日16:45來源於財新網

【財新網】(實習記者陳若菲)交銀國際董事總經理兼首席策略師洪灝表示,巴塞爾Ⅲ把黃金劃為一級資本,黃金重新貨幣化,黃金或將進入新一輪漲勢。
 
11月24日,在深圳举办的2012年中国黄金投资交易高端论坛上,洪灏指出,黄金投资基本面看多的趋势存在继续上升的支持。 11月24日,在深圳舉辦的2012年中國黃金投資交易高端論壇上,洪灝指出,黃金投資基本面看多的趨勢存在繼續上升的支持。 原因在于,巴塞尔Ⅲ计划重新界定了黄金的货币属性,基本上把黄金重新定义为货币,使得黄金长期上升成为必然。原因在於,巴塞爾Ⅲ計劃重新界定了黃金的貨幣屬性,基本上把黃金重新定義為貨幣,使得黃金長期上升成為必然。
 
根据《巴塞尔协议III》条款,商业银行可用黄金储备来充当一级资本。根據《巴塞爾協議III》條款,商業銀行可用黃金儲備來充當一級資本。 该条款一旦生效,黄金将从三等资产上升到一等资产并成为银行的核心资本。該條款一旦生效,黃金將從三等資產上升到一等資產並成為銀行的核心資本。 一级资本即核心资本,是衡量银行资本充足状况的指标,是金融机构可以永久使用和支配的自有资金。一級資本即核心資本,是衡量銀行資本充足狀況的指標,是金融機構可以永久使用和支配的自有資金。
 
洪灏解释说,巴塞尔(协议)Ⅲ之前,黄金被列入银行的第三级资本,第三级资本并不是一个现金的概念,只拥有价值储蓄和计量的功能,不能用用做银行准备金,银行即使有黄金,也不能够用它做准备金进行结算。洪灝解釋說,巴塞爾(協議)Ⅲ之前,黃金被列入銀行的第三級資本,第三級資本並不是一個現金的概念,只擁有價值儲蓄和計量的功能,不能用用做銀行準備金,銀行即使有黃金,也不能夠用它做準備金進行結算。
 
他说,巴塞尔(协议)Ⅲ施行后,黄金货币化,被重新定义为一级资本,其在流通中重新产生了交易功能,银行每借出一笔钱,都有黄金的乘数在,银行借贷能力由此可以增强。他說,巴塞爾(協議)Ⅲ施行後,黃金貨幣化,被重新定義為一級資本,其在流通中重新產生了交易功能,銀行每借出一筆錢,都有黃金的乘數在,銀行借貸能力由此可以增強。 所以,从基本面上看,这对黄金上涨有很重要的推动作用。所以,從基本面上看,這對黃金上漲有很重要的推動作用。
 
商务部网站11月21日发表文章称,《巴塞尔协议III》的实施将对世界黄金市场产生巨大影响,对银行具有双重意义,一方面可以加强自有资本,并随着金价上涨而水涨船高;另一方面,黄金还可作为发放贷款的备用金。商務部網站11月21日發表文章稱,《巴塞爾協議III》的實施將對世界黃金市場產生巨大影響,對銀行具有雙重意義,一方面可以加強自有資本,並隨著金價上漲而水漲船高;另一方面,黃金還可作為發放貸款的備用金。
 
《巴塞尔协议III》是2008年金融危机的产物,制定了对银行资本比率最新要求,目的在于吸取金融危机的前车之鉴,减少银行债务风险的负荷率。 《巴塞爾協議III》是2008年金融危機的產物,制定了對銀行資本​​比率最新要求,目的在於吸取金融危機的前車之鑑,減少銀行債務風險的負荷率。 2010年由包括中国在内的27个国家的银行监管者在瑞士巴塞尔达成共识,将于2013年1月至2019年1月期间逐步实施。 2010年由包括中國在內的27個國家的銀行監管者在瑞士巴塞爾達成共識,將於2013年1月至2019年1月期間逐步實施
 


What’s the Price of Silver if There’s None to be Had?

作者在問, 如果世上無實金實銀賣啦, 實金實銀會值幾多 ?
不會是今日報出來的金銀價, 因為銀不會只值 23美元 !
實物金銀愈來愈少, 而需求愈來愈大, 大家會驚買唔到貨, 而去搶貨, 所以大家最終要面對呢個問題 !

silverdoctors.com

Submitted By Bill Holter, Miles Franklin Ltd,:

…and there was no one around, would it make any sound?  Or wait, a better question is, if there was no Silver to be had…what would one ounce be worth?  And of course, what would one ounce of Gold be worth if there was none to be had…?   No, really, what would it be worth?  Would it be worth what the “COMEX” says it’s worth?  More?  Less?  About the same?  Nothing?  Priceless?  1,500 cans of tuna fish and some toilet paper?  1,500 rounds of ammo?  A pack of chewing gum or a car?   Think about this question, what “would” an ounce of Gold or Silver be worth?

 Do you wonder why I am asking you these questions?  Simple, because we are soon, I think very soon to find out the answer even if you are not asking it!  We already know that an ounce of Silver is not worth the $23 that COMEX says it’s worth.  No, buyers-investors-scared fiat rabbits are paying more…30% more for the real, hold in your hand “stuff” that COMEX is so badly underpricing.  Let me go back to the beginning, what is an ounce of Gold or Silver worth if and now when an ounce is not available?  What is it worth if God forbid…the government loses its mind and makes Constitutional money ”illegal”?  But wait, here is an even better question, if Gold and Silver were to become “illegal/outlawed” in the US but not overseas, then what would they be “worth”?
 
I know, lots and lots of questions but no answers right?  I am asking these questions because I want you to think, think for yourself.  What does it mean when China, India, Australia, Europe, the US and others are displaying serious shortages of Silver?  And now Gold has become tight also, what does this mean?  Why is the stuff disappearing?  Why now?  Supply hasn’t shrunk but the demand side has been turned on like a light switch!  Demand was brisk coming into this price crash and it was steadily increasing.  In the past (with the exception of late 2008), price hits actually did work to some extent in slowing demand through “fear”.
 
This I believe has now changed, “this” being what it is exactly that people are afraid of.  In the past, price swoons would work to lower open interest on the paper markets and make people think twice in the physical markets.  I believe that this latest (and most blatant of all) manipulation will be seen as the last straw because a “run” on metal is in progress.  This “run” has the potential of turning into an all out sprint, physical supply absolutely MUST hit the markets and hit them fast if this is to be avoided.  The markets (worldwide) must be supplied and “calmed” or an all out bank run will result.
The “fear” now is not owning precious metals and being “scared” that the price will go down, no, the fear now is systemic.  The fear now is that your bank account gets raided like the Cyprus/template/example.  The fear now is the “government” wherever you may be, fails or defaults.  The fear now is that your central bank does a monkey see monkey do with the Bank of Japan and decides it’s a good thing to double money supply.  The fear now?  In a nutshell is a result of everyone, everywhere being fed a morning noon and night diet of lies that of course never panned out.  People have eyes, ears, lives and experiences on their own, the “green shoots” around every corner propaganda has been proven completely false and hollow.
 
Finally it looks like the “fear” has morphed from what “they” want you to be afraid of into REAL fear.  Human instinct is taking over and when it comes to emotions, fear is a far greater emotion that greed ever could be.  This “fear” that I am speaking of is, yes you guessed it…the fear of NOT owning precious and in your hand metals!  This is a worldwide phenomenon that began a long time ago but went terminal a week ago Friday.  “Price” seems to have exposed “supply”.  The old saying goes, “there is no rush like a Gold rush“, this saying always speaks to “greed”.  The coming Gold rush with its roots in “fear” will be unlike anything before it because in reality it will be an all out, all encompassing global bank run!  We will look back and see very clearly that the “system” itself was flawed and what caused its own demise.  …of course you will hear “who coulda’ seen it coming?”.  The people making a run on the physical markets, that’s who!  People are finally waking up…   
 
Regards,  Bill H.

Sinclair - Swiss Bank Just Refused To Give My Friend His Gold

Jim Sinclair 說, 佢有位朋友想去瑞士銀行取返自己的黃金, 但銀行說, 因為數量太大, 而瑞士政府為防洗黑錢和防恐怖份子唔俾提實金, 只可以計返數取現金 !
Magyuire 先生都說過, 英國貴金屬交易所LBMA 都唔俾取實金, 而只俾返現金, 所以可以証明, 佢地無實金在手上 ! 而荷蘭銀行無實金取事件也都是一個証明, 在紙金背後根本無實金的存在 ! 操控金銀者最後只會玩死自己 !

昨晚本人在 Baby Kingdom 見到好多本地媽媽好驚嘆大陸人在香港的掃金行動, 大多數媽媽都想金價跌多些才去買, 所以可以見到, 大多數香港人還是對黃金好冷淡, 而在討論區, 多人說的還是股票 !


kingworldnews.com

Today legendary trader Jim Sinclair stunned King World News when he revealed that a dear friend of his who is very affluent just had a Swiss bank refuse to return his large hoard of gold when he asked for it out of an allocated account.  Below is what Sinclair, who was once called on by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to assist during a Wall Street crisis, had to say in this remarkable and candid interview. 

Eric King:  “Maguire spoke on KWN yesterday about the fact that one of his clients went to the LBMA to get the metal from them and could not get it.  They told him he would be cash settled.  This is what you have been talking about is the failure of the physical markets.”

Sinclair:  “A person that I know with significant deposits in one of the primary Swiss banks, in allocated gold, wanted to take out his gold and was just refused on the basis of directives from the central bank....

“They told him the amount was in excess of 200,000 Swiss francs and the central bank had instructed them not to do it because it has to do with anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering precautions. 

I really wonder whether those are precautions or whether the gold simply isn’t there.  Now you tell me that a London delivery has basically failed.  It has to raise our suspicions that the lack of physical gold behind the paper gold is literally so severe that we are coming to understand that it is in fact not there.

The gold that people think is stored is not stored, and the inventory of the warehouses for exchanges may not be holding deliverable gold.  There has always been speculation about whether or not the physical gold the US claims to store is in fact in those vaults. 

The greatest train robbery in history might be all of the gold, and it would only be something like we have described above that would happen right before gold makes historic highs. 

There simply is no gold behind the paper.  One example is AMRO, a second is your example with Maguire, and a third is my dear friend who was refused his gold on the basis that its value was too high.  Remember this friend of mine had his gold in an allocated account in storage at a major Swiss bank.  I repeat, there is no gold.”

Eric King:  “Jim, when I listen to what you are saying, to what Maguire is saying, it really does tell me we are at the end game in terms of the paper market.  It’s collapsing right now as you have been warning.”

Sinclair:  “The vicious and blatant manipulation of the gold price (lower) via paper, on Friday and on Monday, may very well be the biggest mistake that the manipulators ever conceived of.  I firmly believe it revealed that the price of gold has nothing to do with gold itself.

But I would add that if in fact the physical demand remains at these levels or even increases as the price of gold rises, I believe that the warehouses for the exchanges will be so significantly drawn down that it will force cash settlement. 

The bottom line here is the paper market for gold may have just lit itself on fire, and served to burn the manipulators’ houses to the ground.  You’ve heard of the phrase, ‘The emperor has no clothes.’  Well, this is infinitely worse because it is finally being revealed that the paper market for gold, in fact, has no gold.”

全球撈底 金價連升五日

蘋果日報

【本報訊】金價經過上周連番波動後,上周五收市時已重回1,400美元之上,昨日亦繼續靠穩。現貨金價連續第五個交易日回升,昨每盎斯最高曾見1,439 美元,升2.5%。

對沖基金反彈前掃貨

巴克萊幾名分析師指,自上周大跌市後,中國實金需求表現強勁,加上印度需求及美國金幣銷售亦轉強,反映散戶視金價大跌為入市良機。上海黃金交易所的指標現 貨金合約規模,昨日單日已超過4.3萬公斤,創成交量新高。
另一方面,有數據亦顯示,不少對沖基金及投機者,在金價反彈前已大幅增持淨長倉位,其他貴金屬的好倉亦見增加。
美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)公佈,在截至上周二的一周內,投機客持有的黃金期貨和期權淨長倉合約,達6.1579萬張,較前一周的5.6084萬張增加9.8%。分析稱,在黃金經過一輪沽售潮後,已有新資金入場撈底。
與 此同時,當周投機者持有的期銀淨長倉為8,254張,對比前一周淨短倉2,422張,走勢亦截然不同;持有的期銅淨短倉則減少5,438張,至 2.7412萬張。其餘貴金屬現貨價昨亦見上升,其中現貨銀上升1.5%,報23.6美元;現貨白金亦升0.84%,報1,438美元。不過,3個月期銅 價則受中國地震可能導致需求減少拖累,昨跌逾1%。

火燒《富爸爸財務自由之路》投資失利 小巴司機跳樓亡

富爸爸無教人炒賣呀, 富爸爸只叫人買資產收取現金流呀 !

所以選錯投資, 可以輸得好慘 !


蘋果日報

【本報訊】一名小巴司機疑投資失利,昨日在黃大仙鳳德邨住所梯間,焚燒投資理財書籍《富爸爸財務自由之路》、財經雜誌及投資單據掟落街後,再攀越欄河從34樓躍下當場慘死。警方未有發現遺書。

曾懷疑有幻聽

死者姓張(38歲),未婚,獨居鳳德邨碧鳳樓一單位,父母則住在沙田顯徑邨,警方事後聯絡其家人到場助查。家人稱事主並無欠債,但近月曾告知父親懷疑自己 有幻聽。消息稱,事主一向有投資股票,從現場看到他死前燒爛掟落街的股票單據顯示,他12年前已投資股票,在股海浮沉多年,經歷過金融風暴。
事發昨日下午3時許,事主被發現從碧鳳樓高處飛墮一樓簷篷,當場頭爆肢折慘死,其間有一批燒着的紙張緊隨其後,飛散落大廈對開公園旁邊,據住在12樓的黃同學稱,突聞墮物巨響,探窗查看,發現有燒着的紙張從高處飄下,。
警員及救護員接報到場,證實該男子已死去,遺在公園旁的一批被燒過的紙張,包括一本投資理財書籍《富爸爸財務自由之路》的多張被撕爛的書頁,另有一頁財經雜誌、一張超速駕駛告票及一張01年以股價0.98元購買8,000股的旭日企業(393)的單據。

34樓梯間躍下

警員在場調查時發現事主雙手有燒過傷痕。警員事後聯絡事主家人到場調查,相信事主從34樓梯間跳下,並估計他墮樓前曾焚燒《富爸爸財務自由之路》書籍、雜 誌、告票與單據,然後雙手捧着燃燒的紙張攀欄墮樓斃命。
《富爸爸財務自由之路》是日裔美國人羅勃特.T.清崎所撰寫的投資理財系列叢書,暢銷全球。

2013年4月22日 星期一

Goldman Says Copper Selloff Overdone, Is Bullish at Lower Prices

高盛又操控銅價, 說銅價已超賣依家值得買, 所以睇下佢幾時說金銀價已跌夠 !


finance.yahoo.com

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the selloff in copper was "overdone" and it remains bullish on the metal at a lower price.
The bank cut its three-month estimate to $7,500 a metric ton from $8,000, lowered its six-month prediction to $8,000 from $9,000, and the 12-month forecast fell to $7,000 from $8,000, Goldman analysts including London-based Max Layton and Hong Kong-based Roger Yuan said in a report dated today. Copper for three-month delivery traded at $6,905 today.
The metal has lost 13 percent this year and slumped into a bear market as Europe struggled with its debt crisis and growth slowed in China, the biggest metals consumer. Europe and China account for about 60 percent of world consumption. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange almost doubled in 2013.
The forecasts have been downgraded "to acknowledge the increasing willingness of the market to price future surplus ahead of time" and the risks to growth in the broader emerging market, the report said.
While prices have suffered on concerns China's economy may slow, the bank said the country's "underlying cyclical growth is likely stronger than the headline figures suggest."
Copper in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is being drawn down, it said. The bank estimated bonded stockpiles at 510,000 tons from 715,000 tons in early March and noted that futures in Shanghai are in backwardation.

Gold investors run for the exits, prices suffer biggest-ever drop

傳媒說的話, 唔識的俾佢嚇死, 識的俾佢笑死 !

乜全世界沽金, 而事實是全世界在掃實金實銀 !


NEW YORK/LONDON | Mon Apr 15, 2013 7:13pm EDT
 

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - The price of gold bullion tumbled another $125 per ounce on Monday in its biggest-ever daily loss, as investors liquidated bullish bets en masse after months of disappointment over the performance of the precious metal.
In percentage terms, Monday's 9 percent loss would be the biggest since 1983 and was almost double the loss on Friday. Commodities fell across the board, but few as hard as gold, which hit a two-year low, and silver which plunged 11 percent.

Bullion's collapse caught many veteran investors, who see gold as portfolio protection against inflation and other market risks, by surprise. Monday's drop eclipsed the rout on January 22, 1980, a day after gold hit its then-record $850 on global panic over oil-led inflation due to Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution.
There have been no sudden changes in the macro economic argument for gold in the last week, although numerous factors have kept gold from rising this year while investments like U.S. stocks took off.
While last week's news that the Central bank of Cyprus might sell gold reserves to finance its European Union bank bailout did trigger a rush for the exits when bullion slid below the pivotal $1,500 an ounce threshold, few saw it likely to usher in a round of other official disposals.
"The pressure from proposed sale of Cyprus gold is one of the factors, and once one of them start they all run from the hen house," said Robert Richardson, senior account executive and trading officer at Canadian broker-dealer W.D. Latimer Co. Ltd.
The big question is whether gold has entered a lasting bear market after 12 years of consecutive yearly gains. Gold hit the lowest price since February 2011 and has now almost halved its rally since the 2008 economic crisis, leaving the metal around $550 below its record high of $1,920.30 set in September 2011.

下刪幾千字

Liquidation came from all quarters, including exchange-traded funds, speculators and even physical bullion owners in China and India, the world's largest bullion markets, said David Govett, head of precious metals at Marex Spectron in London.
"This is a market that has only got one thing on its mind ... get me out," he said.

金價瀉 財爺憂衰退先兆

蘋果日報

【本報訊】財政司司長曾俊華昨日於網誌撰文,羅列近日包括中國信用評級被調低、商品價格急挫等共七項現象,指這些消息都令他對前景感到憂慮,「每一項都可能影響本港」。他又稱,尤其近日油價和金價急跌,反映市場對經濟前景有保留,憂慮是經濟出現衰退的先兆。
曾俊華在題為「山雨欲來」的網誌中表示,近日國內、外的消息,都令人對前景感到憂慮。其中兩家國際評級機構先後調整中國信用評級,反映內地地方債透明度,和影子銀行衍生風險,已受到市場關注,「兩者與香港雖然沒有直接關係,但我們也不能掉以輕心,必須提高警覺」。
他指另一值得留意的,是即使多個國家量化寬鬆,大宗商品價格近期卻不升反跌,油價和金價的跌幅尤其顯著,「這無疑反映環球市場對經濟前景有保留,憂慮經濟衰退出現」。曾俊華表示,過去幾次出現經濟衰退前,都曾發生商品價格急跌情況,今日再度重現,難免令人憂慮。
另一香港財金官員、金管局總裁陳德霖,日前於美國華盛頓出席國際貨幣基金組織會議時表示,人民幣升值僅會令與內地相關的食品及品價格微升,暫仍有效管理通脹。陳德霖又指,人幣升值令本港貨物及服務價格變得更低,將可吸引更多內地遊客到港消費,變相刺激本港旅遊業。

若擴波幅 每日成交或逾600億 港人幣買賣勢翻一番

蘋果日報
【本報訊】人行表明會在短期內,擴大人民幣滙率每日浮動波幅,銀行界相信,隨着滙率波動性增加,將進一步推動本港離岸人民幣市場(CNH)發展,特別是外 滙及利率工具交易。預期CNH現貨滙市每日平均交投量,到年底時,可能較現水平再增一倍至約80億美元(624億港元)。
記者:劉美儀


波幅擴闊亦將成為「人仔」升值催化劑,在滙率看俏下,個人客戶將更樂意持有人幣存款或相關投資資產。渣打銀行(香港)環球市場主管兼企業銀行聯席主管陳銘 僑表示,過去半年,無論人幣跨境貿易結算,以至CNH外滙市場,均呈強勁增長,人幣現貨、可交收遠期、外滙掉期及期權等,品種齊備交投活躍,即使年期長至 5年、7年等外滙遠期合約,亦「有價有市」。

升值兼高息 具吸引力

他期望,人幣浮動區間進一步擴闊後,有助未來三年(2013至15年),本港人幣財資業務,從已成熟的外滙市場,邁向利率市場(包括利率衍生工具)深化發 展。目前計入現貨、可交收遠期及外滙掉期等合約,他料CNH日均交投100億至110億美元,即使或有少量雙重計算成份,規模仍較去年下半年的60億至 70億美元,急增六、七成。隨着人幣波幅增大及資本賬加快開放,預期至年底,日均交投達150億美元,亦不為奇。
波幅增大,亦刺激市場對其升值憧憬,陳銘僑認為,現時人幣定存息率介乎2至3厘,加上升值考慮,對個人客戶來說,肯定遠較港元定存吸引。以人幣計價的證券或其他投資產品,在配合當局持續開放的大方向下,亦會加快推進。
中信銀行國際財資部執行副總裁兼司庫陳鏡沐表示,若單計人幣現貨市場,目前日均交投額約40億美元,與去年同期約20億美元相比,已增長一倍,若人幣波幅進一步獲擴闊,肯定會推動更多投資者持有人幣的興趣。

增波幅 企業對沖需求升

波動性增大,亦提升企業及機構客戶對沖需求。以此推論,至今年底時,本港人幣現貨滙市,日均交投量可望再增一倍至80億美元。
零 售客戶除關心人幣看升,亦會留意定存息率會否同步上調。交行(3328)香港分行副行政總裁陳霞芳說,兩者並無相連關係。早前個別同業亦已酌量提高定存息 率,目前以20萬至50萬元人幣定存額、一年存期計,息率維持約2.6至2.7厘,考慮資金成本,相信業界釐訂息率時會很審慎。除非內地有政策配合,引發 新增貸款需求,否則一年期定存息率,未必容易升至3厘水平。

三十年來三次黄金動盪

又是實金和紙金分唔清 !


蘋果日報

金價在4月12日開始急跌,一度跌逾15%,行業史上罕見。很多人認為,長達10年的黃金牛市已經完結,又擔心泡沫爆破。其實,只要細心分析2010年至今金價走勢,不難發現是恐慌性拋售黃金,此「技術性大調整」,其實源於大戶別有用心推低金價。
入行30多年,記憶所及,對三次金價波動印象猶新。1980年1月,亨特兄弟(Hunts)因壟斷白銀市場,把銀價推至50美元之上,影響了世界工業需求, 迫使美國政府出招干預,以倍數加大孖展,甚至把白銀合約限制只許平倉不准加買。銀價因此由高位50美元,暴跌至10美元以下,黃金因而受到拖累,幾日間由 800美元跌至400美元。

第二、第三次波動市,分別是80年代中戴卓爾夫人和鄧小平先生的中英會談,令港元出現信心危機,大鱷大手沽港幣買「九九金」,最後導致港元跟美元掛鈎;及至2009年底開始的歐債危機,美國QE加碼,使金價在短時間內急升。然而,三件事情皆不及今次跌市來得急、來得勁。
有人說,今次跌市的觸發點,來自於財困小國塞浦路斯,宣佈沽出國有黃金儲備。市場進一步猜測,其他歐洲國家會否仿效,從而出現骨牌效應。不過,與其說塞浦路斯沽金是「黑天鵝」,我更相信是「大戶」處心積慮而成!
自今年初起,美國的黃金未平倉合約,一直維持在50萬張水平。50萬張是一個怎樣的概念呢?經驗告知,當未平倉合約逾25萬張時,金價必有大幅度的或升或跌。而未平倉合約高達50萬張,實在罕見,金價有大波動早有預兆。
同時,市場上唱淡黃金的聲音,從未消失過。如聯儲局快將結束QE、索羅斯沽金、大行唱淡前景等。然而,金價卻長期仍在高位穩企,這證明市場對黃金有非常大的需求及支持。
雖然黃金的承接力十足,但低買高賣是恒久的投資定律。試想想,如沒有人肯沽黃金,永不會出現低價入市機會;已沽貨的大戶,亦需要有低價補貨的良機。雙方在塞浦路斯事件中,一拍即合促成跌市,這是一個「不能證實的事實」。
把時間拉遠一點,2011年,金價於1,400至1,500美元間橫行了足足6個月,炒家密密收貨,築成重要心理關口,再發力衝上1,900美元。此解釋了為何4月12日金價跌穿1,500美元後,即出現插水式下跌。

不難想像,跌市中有人賺大錢。簡單數學題,1,500美元囤積「好倉」,1,800美元派貨獲利;今次大跌市中再低價入市,年底會否形成另一次升浪?我認為 十分明顯。相反,金價會續跌嗎?當然亦有可能,但機會很微。因為隨着環保意識提高,黃金開採成本,每盎斯已升至近千美元,反映黃金現價,已跟開礦成本差不多。
如果你對貨幣失去信心,認同貨幣貶值會是長期趨勢(除人民幣例外),目前是買入黃金的良機,但我建議最好還是實金交易避免槓桿投機。預期金價下一個支持位在1,280至1,300美元,如不幸跌穿,成交又續減,方可算是熊市開始,就應該沽貨離場了。

記者鄭柏齡筆錄

張德熙
金銀業貿易場理事長

2013年4月21日 星期日

US Will Be Cypruss’d & Gold Headed to $50,000/oz

silverdoctors.com全文

Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair shocked the precious metals community Friday by publicly stating that the US will be Cypruss’d, the current take-down in gold & silver is a last-ditch can kicking attempt by the bullion banking cartel, as that as a result of the coming derivatives collapse banking system bail-in, physical gold is headed to $50,000/oz!
Today, Sinclair updated CIGA’s on the fundamentals behind his $50k gold prediction:

Jim Sinclair 認為, 因為美國已無實金可以出租, 亦都無資金可以買返流失的黃金, 所以才發生近日的金銀價爆跌 ! 佢說, 如果金銀衍生市場崩潰, 美國會用對付Cyprus的手段來對付美國的銀行和金融機構, 就係用客戶的錢來填數 ! 而到時金價可以見五萬美元一盎司 !

本人不是太在意佢的預測, 不過龐大的衍生市場如崩潰, 實金實銀一定有價值 !

還有見到有讀者說, 點解要買9999銀 :


AGXIIK says:

2013年4月20日 星期六

Refiners Can’t Keep Up With Massive Global Gold Demand

在網上還是見到太多的人在用睇紙金的眼光去睇實金, 所以金銀價報價跌, 佢地會笑得好開心, 以為投資黃金的人就來輸大錢, 而見唔到頭頂上的危機, 到醒覺時, 已是太遲 !

文章說: 呢次跌市只是發生在紙金紙銀市場, 因為實貨佢地公司一個賣家都無, 只有買家 ! 而聽說全球好多人排隊買實金實銀 ! 澳洲鑄幣廠 Perth Mint 須加生產來滿足需求, 而美國鑄幣廠一日內賣兩噸黃金, 四月已賣 4.6 噸黃金, 多過二月和三月的總和 !
瑞士的產金廠日夜開工都沒能趕起貨俾中東和遠東國家, 溢價也在爆升中, 所以可以証明, 實貨市場和紙金銀市場是兩回事來的 ! 真正的黃金市場是黃金實貨市場, 而已有五千年的歷吏 ! 紙金可以去返佢原本的價值, 就是好肯定是零 ! 來緊幾年, 實金和紙金的距離會愈來愈大至市場醒覺紙金市場不能提取實金, 紙金會跌去零, 而實金會升去你想唔到的高價 !

kingworldnews.com

Today Egon von Greyerz spoke with King World News about the massive global demand for gold and the incredible strain it is putting on refiners.  Greyerz also talked about retail gold buyers queuing up all over the world.  Below is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this tremendous interview.

Greyerz: “I will tell you some very important reasons why investors should not worry about the recent turbulence in the gold market.  First of all it was a smash in paper gold.  If you look at our company, as just one example, we did not have one single seller in the last few weeks.

So during this takedown in gold and silver there wasn’t one single seller, only buyers....

“KWN has reported that all over the world people are buying more physical gold and silver than ever.  We are hearing about retail buyers queuing up everywhere around the world.

The Perth Mint has had to increase production in order to meet demand.  On the 17th of April, just two days ago, the US Mint sold two tons of gold.  That’s in one day.  The total in so far in April is 4.6 tons of gold sold.  That’s more than the whole of both months of February and March.

If we turn to the Swiss refiners, Eric, the premium over spot for physical gold is rocketing.  Swiss refiners are unable to keep up with the demand for immediate delivery.  They are working flat out, including the weekend, and still can’t keep up.

The Swiss refiners are seeing global demand coming in from everywhere, especially from the Middle-East and the Far-East.  So, again, this proves that the artificial manipulation of paper gold has nothing to do with the physical market. 

The true gold market is only physical, and it’s been that way for 5,000 years.  Paper gold will eventually reach its intrinsic value, which is zero, that is guaranteed.  In the next few years the spread between physical gold will continue expanding until the market realizes that the issuers of paper gold cannot deliver.  At that point paper gold will go to zero, and physical gold will go to unimaginable levels.”

Gold & Silver

本人都覺, 金銀價有可能俾人再推低, 不過實金實銀應該會愈來愈難買到, 除非用高溢價買 ! 來緊可能會有個怪現象, 金銀報價跌, 但市上無實金實銀賣 !


armstrongeconomics.com

We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday’s 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to 1158. Breach that, and we very well may see 907 in 2 weeks,
The gold promoters instead of $30,000 and now out in force desperately trying to suck people in claiming the new target is now $50,000. This is insane. This type of break could be monumental. We now must watch for new lows next week will point to a collapse into the follow week.

This is just amazing.

2013年4月19日 星期五

金價暴跌疑成「奪命金」 建銀投資高層跳樓亡

蘋果日報

「金融街有人跳樓了,初步估計是爆倉了……」前日下午,北京金融街一男子跳樓身亡。恰逢國際金價連日來多次暴跌,網友第一時間猜測是炒黃金期貨爆倉的經紀 尋短見。死者身份後經確認竟然是中國建銀投資有限公司(下稱建銀投資)監事長兼紀委書記王世強。建銀投資昨公告稱王因健康原因去世,牽強說法難以服眾。恰 逢內地新一輪金融整頓,令人浮想聯翩。

前日下午約4點半,王世強從建銀投資辦公室所在地北京長安興融中心2號樓墮下,當場身亡。據警方引對面一工地目擊者稱,他是從12層窗戶爬出後跳樓的。建 銀投資昨日上午在官方網站發佈訃告--「因健康原因,中國建銀投資有限責任公司原監事長王世強於2013年4月17日在北京去世。」澄清微博訛傳的投資經 理因黃金下跌爆倉跳樓。
60 歲的王世強是正局級幹部,1977年從山西財經學院金融專業畢業,進入中國人民銀行二十多年。曾官拜央行稽核監督局副局長、銀行監管一司副司長,更曾任國 務院稽察特派員總署特派員助理。2003年被調任中國銀行業監督管理委員會培訓中心主任,2006年調任建銀投資監事長、紀委書記。

建銀投資澄清非爆倉

新浪財經引內部人士稱王患有抑鬱症。有知情人士卻對《每日經濟新聞》表示,王平時生活樂觀,前段時間還和他一起打網球;另一人也對王的死很意外,稱王平時 並無不良嗜好。建銀投資一名發言人回應21世紀網查詢時只是強調:「肯定和腐敗沒有關係。」但對於王世強近期工作中是否遇到大問題,跳樓之前負責處理什麼 工作,都三緘其口。恰逢內地正整肅金融秩序,調查組上周已進駐上海、北京、江蘇等地;先後有中信證券固定收益部董事總經理楊輝、萬家基金基金經理鄒昱、齊 魯銀行金融部徐大祝等被調查,昨多家銀行和金融機構表示已暫停債券業務。
建銀投資是2004年經國務院批准成立的國有投資控股集團,曾參與證券公司綜合治理,完成對多家證券公司的重組注資及多家基金、信託企業的股權收購;2008年更作為平台承擔主權財富基金的人民幣投資職能,至今總資產達760億人民幣。
新浪財經/21世紀網

豪客搶金 600萬買20公斤

近期國際金價暴跌,引發內地民眾瘋狂搶金潮,廣州買金像買菜,有豪客用600萬(人民幣.下同)買20公斤金條,肉販穿水鞋去買金;南京市民晚飯都不吃, 排隊搶金,金條被買光;上海多家銀行一片黃金大賣;北京刷新黃金單日成交紀錄;福建南平建行賣剩500克重金條;江西南昌金店人山人海……。
近 日廣州市民擠爆多家黃金賣場,不少花農、豬肉販、魚販直奔商場買金:「穿着水鞋直接從市場過來。」銷售人員說商販們買10克、20克的投資金條,也買金首 飾。黃女士周一到銀行下定價值600萬元的20公斤澆鑄金條,她表示本想前一天買,因急事走不開,隔一晚金價又跌,她等於「省」了44萬元。「購買者大多 是買500克或1000克的金條。」佛山交通銀行客戶經理劉小姐自己就賣了5公斤。
過去兩日,南京黃金門店金條預訂量超過平時一個月銷量,前日有 客豪擲100多萬買40根100克金條。前日寶慶銀樓率先宣佈足金飾品價格從386元/克降到328元/克,晚飯時間,門前大排長龍,要延長營業兩個小 時;昨日促銷繼續,一開門人群就蜂擁而入,不問克數,挑中就開票,付款台前排出幾十米長隊伍……。
賣場雖紅火,金飾老闆卻高興不起來,由於囤貨數額大,金價插水後深圳有首飾商一夜蒸發一棟別墅、幾輛平治。

廣東《羊城晚報》/《現代快報》