2011年7月31日 星期日

美違約 殺傷力巨大

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】太陽財經「投資藺語」專欄作者藺常念:8月2日美國國債限期將至,可惜上周民主與共和黨仍為完全沒有意義的方案拉鋸。兩星期前,市場普遍樂觀,認為美國國會不可能不在限期前通過有關法案,但最近一周的發展,兩黨仍在作無謂爭吵,令市場失去信心。

投資者已開始作最壞打算,萬一在限期前美國國會不能通過法案,事情會怎麼發展下去。市場人士開始轉投貴金屬市場,如黃金和白銀,基金增持現金,買瑞郎及日圓及買美國國債違約掉期。

限期一到,美國政府則沒有錢支付所有聯邦開支,美債有可能出現違約及失去其最高的AAA評級。美國政府之前曾五度違約,但都是在南北戰爭及第一次世界大戰。

美國若失去AAA評級,將令債券市場大亂。一些債券基金其章程規定只可以持有AAA債券,若美國國債降級,這些基金需要沽出手上美國國債,但是市場根本沒有可能接收這大額債券。美國政府違約的殺傷力遠比雷曼倒閉為大,因雷曼破產只涉及660億美元,美國國債規模高達15萬億美元,一旦出事,將發展成金融末日。

靈獅控股有限公司董事總經理 藺常念(作者為註冊持牌人士)

美元後市逢高減持

蘋果日報

美國兩黨在執筆時就發債上限仍未達成協議,市場似乎仍傾向相信某形式的妥協方案最終可趕及在 8月 2日前出台。不過,即使上限得以被調高,若方案沒有實質的削赤內容,美債評級被下調的機會亦只會變得越來越高。
標普之前指出,美國 10年內需至少削減 4萬億美元赤字,才會對財政改革產生良好作用。因此,若兩黨「不肯妥協」的聲音鬧大,將表示美債「違約」的風險越高;若「妥協」的聲音越大,則表示「降級」的風險越高。
一旦美債保不住 AAA評級,預料房利美、房貸美及地方政府所發行的債券都會面臨同被降級的厄運。然而,美債現時仍是全球流通量最高的市場之一,在沒有理想的替代品之下,投資者暫不會大手減持。
短 期而言,市場出現震盪是無可避免的。近日美國隔夜回購利率由 0.02厘升至 0.1厘,就反映了市場對風險的敏感度增加,投資者傾向增持現金,減少放貸。回購利率影響到銀行、對冲基金的短期借貸成本。若國庫券真的被降級,投資者將 要付出更多的現金作抵押品,最終令信貸市場收縮,引發去槓桿化的活動,繼而拖累經濟表現。投資者為了迴避風險,會暫時減持股票及商品等工具。為免經濟陷入 困境,聯儲局最終將不得不再次推出寬鬆措施,為市場注入流動資金。
長遠而言,市場將會更積極地分散投資,減少對美元及美債的依賴。擁有 AAA評級的政府債券,包括德國、丹麥、澳洲、芬蘭、瑞典、挪威、瑞士、加拿大、新加坡及香港等,其資產將會因而受到追捧。而在美、歐、日同時面對高負債 的困局下,各國央行亦會持續分散外滙儲備,黃金、澳元、紐元、加元及瑞郎等,將日益扮演重要角色。

金價料闖 1800美元


本周初美債談判若有妥協的方案出現,美股以至全球股市料可暫時鬆一口氣,美元或藉勢反彈,惟隨着評級下調的機會增加,未來兩個月美元仍應逢高減持。筆者維持明年首季前金價可見 1800美元的預測,而屆時白銀料可升抵 45美元水平、澳元將逼近 1.15美元、紐元可見 0.90美元、而美元兌瑞郎預料會下試 0.75水平。

潘國光

歐美震散信心 股民撤資逃亡

文匯報

美債違約危機升溫、歐洲負債沉重,令環球投資者憂慮全球經濟再衰退,黃金成為避險天堂。即使全球通脹加劇,投資者亦寧願持有現金,紛紛撤出股市。近月流出投資基金的資金多達9成,同時投資者信心跌至金融海嘯以來新高。

 環球股市近期普遍向下,英國投資管理協會數據顯示,5月基金投資額僅6,400萬英鎊(約8.2億港元),僅為去年同期6.5億英鎊(約83.2億港元)的10%,而且趨勢持續。

 投資者在歐美債務危機全面爆發前,已從歐美的基金分別抽走6,000萬和1.54億英鎊(約7.7億和19.7億港元)。股市不穩、現金貶值,帶動黃金走勢強勁,金價飆升至每盎司1,630美元新高。巴萊克銀行的黃金基金銷售上周大升58%,貝萊德黃金基金也升33%。

 木星資產管理首席投資官羅伯茨表示,發達國負債沉重,房地產市場不振、財赤,加上歐豬等問題,相信發達國困境仍將維持數年。  

■《每日電訊報》

2011年7月30日 星期六

等緊下星期的變化

Confusion Grips Wall Street

其實由2006年起, 我地已做好預防美元跌和通脹升的設拖, 所以買實金實銀, 睇來發生的日期已愈來愈近啦 !

finance.yahoo.com

With no resolution in sight to lift the debt-ceiling, investors are scrambling to find ways to hedge themselves against what was once unthinkable: A U.S. debt default and loss of triple-A rating.

Further spooked by Friday's shockingly weak GDP report, the stock market appears headed for a sixth-straight decline. In recent trading, the Dow was down 0.4% but off its earlier lows.

As discussed here earlier this week, concern about Washington's dysfunction has been evident in a variety of markets, notably gold's continue strength, the rising cost of U.S. credit default swaps and the dollar's weakness vs. the yen and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the CME now says it won't accept short-term Treasuries as collateral while The WSJ reports the $4 trillion repo market is at risk if the U.S. loses its triple-A rating.

But there's a lot of confusion on Wall Street about how to plan for Aug. 2, as The WSJ's Greg Zuckerman and I discuss in the accompanying clip. This confusion is evident, most notably, by continued strength in U.S. Treasuries. In recent trading, the benchmark 10-year note was up 26/32, its yield falling to 2.85%.

"Treasuries are fascinating," Zuckerman says. "Do you sell them or do you buy them?"

On the surface, it seems illogical for traders to be buying the debt of an entity (the U.S. government) that is threatening to default. But the government has said making debt payments will be a priority; and if Congress does agree to a deal to slash government spending, that will likely put further pressure on an already weak economy, which is a bullish scenario for Treasuries.

As the week comes to a close, the conventional wisdom remains that "in the eleventh hour, [Congress] will come up with some compromise," as Zuckerman puts it. That view is preventing panic on Wall Street, which is a good thing. But the lack of market panic means there's less pressure on Congress to reach a compromise before the Aug. 2 deadline, creating a chicken and egg conundrum.

Confused? You're not alone.

美元資產響警鐘 中國外儲臨巨虧

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 海巖 北京報道)美國29日宣佈推遲眾議院支出計劃投票,但美國國債危機仍愈演愈烈。即便美國此次再次提高債務上限並繼續大肆舉債,世界經濟亦將繼續籠罩在美國 主權債務危機的陰霾之下,全球都沒有贏家。隨著美國債務的膨脹,美元將進一步貶值,這將直接導致以美元為基礎的全球儲備資產的大幅縮水,而中國佔全球近三 分之一的外儲將首當其衝。有分析指出,對於美國第一大債權國中國來說,其擁有的1.16萬億美元美國國債可能面臨兩至三成的縮水,相當於中國人均至少虧損 177美元(約合人民幣1,150元)。

8月2日本是美國提高債務上限的最後期限,時間日漸緊迫,但美國國會兩黨不顧債務違約所面臨的巨大風險,依舊爭論不休,至今未達成一致。如今,美國又宣佈推遲表決,令這場「驢象之爭」繼續波及全球經濟。

美具挾持全球債權人資本

 實際上,美國之所以敢把「債務違約」作為政治博弈的籌碼,這是因為美國有挾持全球債權人的資本,即 美元全球儲備貨幣的絕對主導地位。「無論美國是否提高債務上限,都意味著已經把全球經濟綁在一架戰車上了。」國家信息中心經濟預測部世界經濟研究室副研究 員張茉楠指出,如果因債務談判破裂使得美國無法及時償付債務,當前以美債為基礎的全球債基體系必將大幅動盪,美國貸款成本大大上升,從而引發全球資產價格 重估;而如果美國債務上限得以提高,美國繼續大肆舉債,全球債權人則要繼續分擔美國債務膨脹的成本。

 張茉楠認為,美國債務增長規模遠遠高於經濟增速,近十年來,美國政府每年借款規模平均超過4萬億美元,2010年美國政府債務依存度逼近40%,遠遠高於金融危機之前8.7%的平均水平,可以說美國國債早已實質性違約了。

中國輸入型通脹壓力料增

 有關專家指出,即便此次達成提高債務上限的計劃,這對於美國經濟而言,也只是暫時的「喘息」。美國 經濟依靠不斷的「發新債還舊債」的資金騰挪來支撐增長,隨著債務規模越來越大,財政負擔、融資成本上升,及社會福利費用將大幅增加,從中長期來看,美國債 務風險將長期化,全球資本市場將會失去風險評估基準,整個資產定價體系都需要重新調整,中國的金融體系以及資本市場也將面臨動盪。另一方面,美國債務不斷 增長也會讓美元發行失去控制。隨著美國債務的膨脹,美元將進一步貶值,將直接導致以美元為基礎的全球儲備資產的大幅縮水,而中國佔全球近三分之一的外儲將 首當其衝。此外,美元氾濫將進一步導致大宗商品價格上漲,增加中國輸入型通脹的壓力,遏制中國經濟增長動力。

 美國《紐約時報》日前發表的文章指出,在標普作出不利於美國國債的評級後,中國購買的美國國債預計遭受的投資損失可能高達20%至30%,如果將中國持有的將近1.16萬億美元的美國國債,以最低下跌20%計算,將損失約2304億美元,相當於中國人均虧損177美元。

Gold's Direction Depends On Debt-Ceiling Talks Outcome

www.kitco.com

(Kitco News) - The outcome of the debt-ceiling talks will give gold its direction next week and the bias is down for the short term.

The deadline for raising the debt ceiling is Tuesday – that’s the date that the U.S. Treasury said it will run out of money to pay all of its obligations.

With the impasse continuing, gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange made an all-time nominal high on Friday, trading to $1,634.90 an ounce, basis the August contract, before retreating modestly. The most-active December contract settled at $1,631.20, up 1.7% on the week. September silver settled at 40.13, flat on the week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, eight see prices up, while 10 see prices down, five are neutral and one sees prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

President Obama said at a press conference that there was still time for the two sides to come together and work out a compromise that he can sign. At issue is how much to cut spending. Previous compromises have offered a combination of higher taxes and reduced spending, but some of the “Tea Party” House Republicans have said they will vote for no plan that includes revenue increases, and only for spending cuts.

Phil Streible, senior market strategist for Lind-Waldock, said he still expects Washington to work out a deal to raise the debt ceiling this weekend and keep the U.S. from defaulting. While the U.S. Treasury has said it will run out of money by Tuesday to pay all of its obligations, some bank analysts noted that is likely a soft deadline as recent tax receipts have come in higher than expected, so the Treasury may have a couple of extra days of income to rely on.

What’s important, Streible said, is to see whether the ratings agencies downgrade the U.S.’s triple-A status.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said a scenario in which the debt ceiling isn’t raised “remains unthinkable, but a scenario where the U.S. loses its AAA rating is now becoming a near certainty.”

They suggested it might take a sharp market sell off to get a deal between Democrats and Republicans, perhaps as much as 500-1,000 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average to spur a compromise – and they said such a compromise might push the centrist Republicans into a bipartisan deal with Democratic support. “This would be similar dynamics to the TARP vote back in 2008, when a failed first vote led to equity market losses which in turn spurred passage in a second vote,” they said.

So much will depend on what type of deal is hashed out – whether it is a short-term deal that causes Washington to revisit the issue again in a few months – or if it’s a long-term deal that lasts through the 2012 election season. A longer-term deal will be bearish for gold, Streible said.

That said, trying to determine where gold prices go next week will be very difficult. “Gold and silver could be significantly higher or lower, but it’s going to be difficult to predict,” Streible said.

Many market watchers have echoed Streible’s comments. Because of the high volatility expected, several have said they are playing it safe by either using options trades or are on the sidelines completely until a deal is reached.

Streible said $1,600 – whether looking at the August or December contract - has acted as firm support. The next level of support is $1,580, he said. That region could be critical if tested next week. “If we close under $1,580 at any time next week, we could see gold fall to $1,550,” he said.

There are limits to how far gold may fall, he said, because if the U.S. can reach a solution that eases investors, their attention will return to the continued economic instability in Europe.

Other market watchers are less optimistic for gold. Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures, said he’s short-term bearish on gold – for at least the next few weeks. He said a debt ceiling deal will be made which will push gold off its highs. Further, he pointed out gold is in its cyclically weaker time frame, particularly as the market heads into August.

He said Friday’s high in the $1,630s will be the short-term top, and said that in the next 30-45 days front-month gold futures prices could fall as far as $1,475.

Ira Epstein, president of Ira Epstein Division of The Linn Group, Inc., also pointed out that August is often the point in time where the market sets back a bit. By month’s end, in bull market years, it starts to accelerate upward, Epstein said. “The end of August through the end of September has been a seasonally strong time for higher gold prices. I don’t see anything other than knee-jerk reactions on the horizon that will change gold’s uptrend,” he said.

Epstein said savvy traders could use any weakness in gold as a buying opportunity.
Peter Thomas, director of business development, PFG Precious Metals, said the arguing in Washington has been a boon for the cash side of precious metals. While buying of physical silver has been strong and steady, buying interest in gold prior to the heightened debt-ceiling debates was slowing down. Now, though, he said his firm is “breaking records” every day and demand is strong enough that sourcing product is getting difficult in the short term.

Other Metals Prices Strong, But Will Follow Gold’s Action

Silver gained this week on the strength of gold, but there remains some nervousness by investors to hop back on the silver bandwagon following the violent price sell-off in the metal this spring. If gold falls back silver will likely see greater losses, Streible said, because of its more volatile nature. Still, he said September silver could see buying support under the market. “A lot of people missed this rally back up,” he said. If silver can rally and close over $41, it could target $43.

Copper prices have seen some benefit from the strikes at Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine. Streible said while work stoppages are supportive, upside for the red metal might be limited, unless economic data can give it a boost. He said $4.50 a pound, basis September Comex, will represent strong resistance.

The platinum group metals found support this week from auto news. Requirements for higher auto mileage for cars in the U.S. – now put at 54 miles per gallon beginning with 2017 models -- gave the two metals a boost as they are used in auto catalysts, PGM traders said.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

2011年7月29日 星期五

The Rothschilds and the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange

恐怖過恐怖片 !

politicalmetals.com

By Silver Shield, on July 26th, 2011

I have been watching the emergence of the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange with great interest. I recognize the importance of China establishing this new market that now not only trades Gold and Silver, but eventually Food and Oil. The ability to trade these commodities in both Dollars and Renminbi is a huge step in creating a regional, if not global, reserve currency. The historical significance of this new exchange in the sea change in wealth and power from the Anglo American empire to Asia, is completely missing in today’s media.

Two years ago in the Sons of Liberty Academy, I speculated about the rise of the anti-Hegemon challenging the power of the Anglo American Empire that has dominated the world for the past few centuries. The anti-Hegemon is a union of nations that has fallen victim to, or not benefited from, the Anglo American paradigm. The core of this group includes China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela, but many other nations are learning that there is much to gain from the power vacuum left in the collapse of the dollar. Nations like Brazil, India, Pakistan and South Africa have become closer to the core anti-Hegemon. Even nations that are supposed allies of the Anglo American empire, like France, occupied Germany and occupied Japan have much to gain from getting out of the shadow of the Anglo American empire.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” -Sun Tzu

The anti-Hegemon has been most wise not to go head-to-head with the mortally wounded beast of the American Empire. They see the mathematical inevitability of the dollar collapsing. Without a functioning currency, America cannot control its global empire. With each trade agreement and exchange that is opened outside the Anglo American empire, the beast is wounded further. China has amassed trillions of dollars and is now spending this money on real tangible assets. The most important part of this investment is that China is investing and creating allies, while we drop bombs.


I have studied the Anglo American Elite very closely and I know they would not go down this road without having a plan. The first part, was the creation of the Petro Dollar standard. Both oil shocks in the 70′s were completely planned by the Anglo American Elite. The Bilderbergers instructed Henry Kissinger to create an oil crisis to increase the price of oil 400% following the closing of the gold window in 1971. The new dollars would be recycled back into America’s markets providing a very powerful petro dollar trade. Admit it, you have always thought it was very odd that the Arabs would be so willing to reinvest their dollars into the great Satan. Now you know it was all a game of power.

What is not as well known, that at the same time the Anglo American Empire started the Petro Dollar standard, they stopped all development of oil in America. After all, why use our precious and limited resources when we can print little green pieces of paper and get someone else’s oil? I guarantee you, that as soon as the dollar dies and we are no longer able to import oil for dollars, America will announce the most amazing oil “finds.” We still have half of the Gulf, both the East and West Coasts, Colorado, the Bakken Field, and most importantly Alaska. These projects will be up and running in record time to help re-establish the Anglo American dominance.

The end of the Petro Dollar will end our world and the Anglo American Elite will not go down without a fight. I theorized in the 3 Coming False Flags that Elite will pick a fight with China way before we accept a 3rd world status. Throughout the most of the last century the Anglo American Elite built up and created enemies. They do this to have wars, that create more debt and control natural resources in order to maintain their dominance. There is ample evidence that Wall St funded the Bolshevik Revolution and even financed and supported the Soviet Empire up until its final days. Without their support, Stalin would have lost the war, never been given half of Europe, and starved millions of times over with the utter failure of Communism. The British funded and created Hitler. While America was going through the Great Depression, Germany was booming with the creation of Hitler’s dream. Even Benito Mussolini was on the British payroll. Even more recentlySaddam Hussien received billions of dollars of support and was practically begged not to give up the dollar for oil trade. When he crossed that line, he had to go. (Just like Gaddafi and his gold Dinar dream.)

The Anglo American elite, more specifically the Rothschilds, have supported both sides of almost every war in the past two centuries. The Rothschilds power is derived off of their ability to lend out more debt. Nothing creates debt faster than war. Without war, debts would eventually be paid off and control of assets would slip from their fingers. In order to create massive debts, massive threats have to be created. I believe that China will become the next major enemy of the Anglo American Elite. A little over a decade ago, China was nothing. They were a backwards country that had been closed to the outside world for decades. With the most favored nation trade status, their exports rose astronomically and trillions went into building up an economic, political and military threat. Without the Elite building up China, they would have been nothing.

When I first looked into the HKMEx I was mainly looking to see if silver manipulators JP Morgan, Goldman or HSBC were involved. The good news, I did not see that they had any controlling or operational influence in the HKMEx. The worst thing I guess I found out of the list of board members was President Albert Helmig was a former VP of the NYMEX. The amount of information on the rest of the board is limited most likely because they are Chinese and English Google is limited. I then looked a little further to see who was paying the board.
I have discovered that Nathan Rothschild along with the People’s Bank of China created the privately owned Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange. According to MarketsWiki the HKMEx was founded by En+ Group. On the face of it, it looks like a Russian company is partnering with China as they strengthen ties inside of the anti-Hegemon. When you look at the board of En+ Group you see Nathan Rothschild is at the genesis of this new market that looks poised to take down the dollar.

Nathan Rothschild has had other deals with “enemies”of the Anglo American Empire. Recently, it has become apparent that Nathan Rothschild had deep financial ties with Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. The relationship was interesting since most of the world’s central banks are Rothschild controlled and Libya was one of the few nations not under the Rothschild control. Nat developed a relationship with Gaddafi’s son Saif, then when the time was right, Gaddafi would have to go.

This is small potatoes compared to the Rothschild Rape of Russia. You may vaguely remember the rise of the Oligarchs in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was said that these few young men became the richest men in the world when then bought and controlled huge portions of the natural resources and industries in the former Soviet Union for pennies on the dollar. We were told that they were lucky, smart or cunning. The reality was that they were merely front men for a much larger power. Young men like Mikhail Khordorkovsky went from obscurity to owning the Russian equivalent of Exxon Mobil in a few years. For years these Oligarchs controlled Russia with their wealth and mob like tactics. Finally, when Vladimir Putin wrestled control of Russia from the Oligarchs it became apparent that the power was never with the Oligarchs, but the Rothschilds. When Vladimir Putin imprisoned Mikhail Khordorkovsky it was reveled that Jacob Rothschild was the real owner of Yukos.

Now Jacob’s son Nathan, is partnering with another Rothschild Russian Oligarch Oleg Deripaska in En+ Group with China, what could possibly go wrong? Oleg Deripaska was a manager of a smelter at 25. Four years later he owned the Sibirsky Aluminium Investment Industrial Group. That grew into Basic Element conglomerate that controlled…

  • United Company RUSAL Largest Aluminum Producer
  • Ingosstrakh oldest insurance company
  • GAZ automotive
  • Avaikor Aviation
  • EuroSibEnergo Power Company
  • Glavmosstroy Construction

In 2008, Oleg was the eight richest man in the world with an estimated worth of $28 Billion dollars.(All of these “richest”lists never show you the real wealth of trillionaire families like the Rothschilds who ownCentral Banks.) All of Oleg’s wealth came of course through the power of the Rothschilds. Oleg thrived in the chaotic era of crime that was rampant in Russia after the collapse. The Aluminum Wars were probably one of the more violent episodes in the battle for control. Lawlessness in Siberia was rampant as, “politicians, managers or reporters –were run over, shot, had their throats cut or were killed in air crashes.” In the midst of all of this violence, Oleg emerged the king of Aluminum.

It is also important to note that the Rothschilds exited the LBMA in 2004.The Rothschilds have been involved and owned gold for centuries. They know more than any other family in the world, the power of gold. At the LBMA they and a few other families owned so much gold that they literally met twice a day to literally fix the global price of gold. So why did they leave the LBMA after 200 years in London and why are they going back in to the game in China? My speculation is that the LBMA does not have all of the gold they are trading as Andrew Maguire’s testimony proved. These Anglo American banks are trading and suppressing the real price of gold and silver with multiple paper schemes. My guess is that the Rothschilds simply left the scene of the crime before it comes crashing down.

So why China? Given the history of the Rothschilds and the fact that their wealth has been tied to buying assets when there is “blood on the streets,” I think China will be the next to bleed. The heart of the Anglo American empire is the Rothschilds and Rockefellers. They have been actively courting China to join forces with them. These Elitists actually admire the Chinese in their ability to control their citizens and its free reign they give to industrialists.

“Whatever the price of the Chinese Revolution, it has obviously succeeded not only in producing more efficient and dedicated administration, but also in fostering high morale and community of purpose. The social experiment in China under Chairman Mao’s leadership is one of the most important and successful in human history.” -David Rockefeller, statement about Mao Tse-tung in The New York Times, August 10, 1973 (65 million died under Mao.)

“Some even believe we (the Rockefeller family) are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as ‘internationalists’and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure—one world, if you will. If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.” -David Rockefeller, Memoirs, page 405

The Rothschild minion George Soros has been trying the hardest to get the Chinese to play ball with the Anglo American Elite. Their creation of a New World Order must have China or it will collapse.The Chinese have been wise to take from the Anglo American empire and not give them any control. They play along while they continue to strengthen their position. Ultimately if the Chinese do not take the offer, they will be handled with the gun. (Read the 3 Coming False Flags.)

If my sons did not want war, there would be no war.” -Baron Rothschild

Having the Rothschilds involved at the HKMEx really raises my alarm as they create deeper ties inside the Chinese elite. If you know anything about the Rothschilds they are very generous and gracious friends when they want something from you, and when they have what they want, they turn the tide and leave you hanging. They mastered the cycle of lending generously money that they don’t have through fractional reserve banking and then contracting credit markets so that they take ownership of the assets that they loaned against. The big play they mastered is loaning to both sides of wars and then making sure that the victors are responsible for the defeated debts to be paid. Don’t dance with the devil.

“I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.”The current Nathan Rothschild namesake Lord Nathan Rothschild.

China would be wise not to associate with the Rothschilds and the Anglo American Empire, just look at the Opium Wars. When the British Empire continued to run trade deficits with China, they tried diplomacy with Lord McCartney and economic inducements, all of which failed. The more tea, silk and porcelain the British imported, the lower the money stock of silver the British Empire had. This was because China was on the silver standard and they would not buy any English goods to off set the trade imbalance. (Sound familiar?)

So what did the British do? They smuggled Opium into port cities and started a drug trade to create problems for the Chinese Elite, weaken the Chinese populace and get the silver back from the Chinese. When the Chinese asserted their sovereignty and fought against these drug dealing criminals, it started the two Opium Wars that ravaged China for years. The British defeated the Chinese and they the signed the Treaty of Nanjing in 1842. The Chinese signed over all of their ports and international trade to the British. (If you ever wondered how Britain owned Hong Kong, now you know.) The Rothschilds controlled Britain at the time and I am sure that they were influential in getting the eight nation army to crush the Boxer Rebellion in 1898. The Anglo American Empire subjugated the Chinese until Mao kicked out all of the Westerners.

What does this all mean for silver? I believe that the HKMEx is still a very positive development for the price of physical silver, despite the Rothschild involvement. The Rothschilds are some of the most brilliant men on earth. There is no denying this, given the amount of power that they have accumulated over many generations. Nat Rothschild is clearly the future of the dynasty. (Especially since enviro Jesus David de Rothschild has blown his mission for the Global Warming Carbon Credit Scheme.) The Rothschilds throughout history have not so much created history, but flowed along with history. They used to study the effect of sunspots on the prices of grain. They have carefully watched political and economic cycles to be in the right place at the right time. All of which I am teaching in the Sons of Liberty Academy. The Rothschilds know that the debt cycle is coming to an end and that it is a mathematical certainty. Even they, cannot prevent this from happening. So they are preparing for the turn in history.

The fact that the Rothschilds are back in the metals market and they are behind smaller silver contracts being sold in China, is a good thing for the price of silver. Any more physical demand in a huge market like China can only accelerate the inevitable physical silver default. The price of silver over the long term cannot be stopped. At some point the 3 Demands of Silver will force the physical prices of silver to over ride the paper price of silver once and for all.

“You can ignore reality but not the consequences of reality.”-Ayn Rand

What I am very concerned is the coming crisis between the Anglo American Empire and the anti-Hegemon. It is fun to think about the price of silver when the physical reality sets in, but the economic, political and military reality of what will happen is very disconcerting. I hope I am wrong about my prediction of the 3 Coming False Flags, but the more time goes by, the more I see that this will not end well. The Anglo American Empire still has the largest military, the strongest propaganda machine and deepest capital markets. They will not just throw their hands up and let the Chinese dictate the future without a fight.

Finally, I would like to touch on another subject that I am sure will play into this, racism. I believe when this time comes to make China into the next Nazi regime, all of the power used to make Arabs into “animals,” will be turned against the Chinese to make middle America blame those “slant eyed, commie bastards.”Donald Trump has already called China our “enemy.” Video games and movies are trying to make China our new enemy. This will all be done to fuel the fire of ignorant Americans to blame China for all of our problems. The fact is that our Elite is responsible for all of our problems. They are the ones running up deficits fighting never ending, senseless wars. They are the ones that invested and built up China while gutting America. They are the ones that control both parties. And sadly they will be the ones to profit off of the next war of the Military Industrial Complex to create a new paradigm. The Elite will blame China while they go back into the shadows retaining power and making more profits.

I know I could have made this article very small and simply said the Rothschilds are owners of the HKMEx, but that would not have put into perspective what is really going on in this world. I spent 6 years studying and putting together the Greatest Story NEVER Told, the enslavement of humanity by the Elite. Far to often what is missing from the even the best bloggers, is the historical, economic, political, military, emotional and even spiritual perspective of what is behind all of these stories. I believe that everyone should understand how the world works and the Sons of Liberty Academy is by far the best way to wake up to this reality. Take time to join today, it is free and it will change your life.

“When you are aware, you can prepare.” - Chris Duane


若美債上限達協議 金價將大跌

只要買的是實貨, 如價跌, 你手上的金飾金幣還會是一樣重量的金飾金幣 !

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 MF Global稱,如果美國民主黨和共和黨就債務上限問題達成協議,這將避免美國債務違約和評級被下調,那麼,金價將大幅走低。但稱,若兩黨不能達成協議,違約和降級的前景將支撐金價。

該行稱,近期黃金市場可能向任何一個方向傾斜,美國債務上限談判仍是影響市場的關鍵因素。又稱,長期來看,金價將保持上升趨勢,並將測試1,680美元。又指,金價將受到中國的加息步伐放緩、南非發生罷工事件及歐洲主權債務擔憂的影響。

該行又稱,金價下行壓力來自於國際貨幣基金組織可能進一步出售黃金、以及近期黃金的技術面趨弱。

2011年7月28日 星期四

Will the sky fall on August 2 if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling?

www.reuters.com

Not likely, according to analysts, who say that even without the ability to borrow more money, the government could avoid a devastating default for another week or so. That raises the question of how urgently action is needed to increase the nation's borrowing limit.

For weeks, President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have stressed that the U.S. Treasury will run out of room to borrow funds next Tuesday and have warned of dire consequences if Congress does not raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling in time.

But Treasury officials have never said when the government will run out of cash to pay the nation's bills, and the consensus among Wall Street analysts is that the cash won't run out until about two weeks after the August debt-ceiling drop-dead date.

"The first risk of a legitimate default is August 15," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist and managing director at Jefferies & Co. "Cash is not going to be an immediate problem. The debt ceiling space is not going to be an immediate problem."

McCarthy and other Wall Street analysts predict that the Treasury will have enough cash to meet its early-to-mid August obligations, including $23 billion in Social Security payments to the elderly and disabled on August 3.

That view lends credence to claims that some Republicans have been making for days now that the U.S. government will be able to keep functioning and paying its bills even if there is no deal by August 2.

But it does not take into account how the market and investors will react if Congress fails to raise the debt cap by the deadline and the U.S. Treasury is unable to tap markets for funds.

Analysts also expect that the U.S. Treasury will be able to roll over the $90 billion in U.S. debt that matures August 4.

"In all forecasts, it appears as if they have ample cash to cover their obligations," said Lou Crandall, chief economist with research firm Wrightson ICAP.

Wrightson and Jefferies expect the United States would start defaulting on its obligations on August 15, the date the government must pay out $41 billion, including around $30 billion in interest on U.S. debt.

Barclays Capital has said Treasury may run out of cash to pay its bills around August 10, when $8.5 billion in Social Security payments are due.

A Treasury spokesperson on Tuesday had no comment.

POLITICAL SUICIDE

Analysts do not expect the credit rating agencies to downgrade U.S. debt if Congress does not raise the limit by August 2 and the government is still able to pay its bills.

That could potentially give a divided Congress more time to craft a plan to cut spending and raise the limit on how much Treasury can borrow.

"We think there is enough money in the month of August to take care of things," said Representative Jim Jordan, the chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, a group of more than 150 conservative and Tea Party-aligned lawmakers.

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid and Republican House Speaker John Boehner are locked in a bitter battle over how to control spending and increase the debt cap.

Reid and fellow Democrats have proposed a one-step plan to cut the deficit by $2.7 trillion and raise the cap by the same amount to carry the administration through the November 2012 elections. Meanwhile, Boehner has pushed for a two-stage deficit reduction plan that would provide an initial increase in the debt limit that would only last a few months.

Any sign from the administration that Congress has more time to negotiate a budget deal could undermine Geithner's credibility.

The U.S. Treasury has shifted the forecast of when it would initially bump up against the borrowing cap three times and once pushed back its drop-dead estimate -- now August 2 -- of when it would exhaust all special measures that let it keep borrowing.

"It doesn't help that they have shifted dates. There is definitely a perception from lawmakers that even if they pass the deadline, they may be OK," said Tom Simons, a money market economist with Jefferies & Co. "There will come a point where it is no longer true."

(Reporting by Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Leslie Adler)

通脹升溫預期加息, 亞幣強勢沒法擋

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】美元持續弱勢,加上澳洲公佈最新通脹數據超預期,令亞太區貨幣昨呈現強勢,追蹤亞洲區內 10種貨幣(不包括日圓)的彭博摩根大通亞洲貨幣指數,昨升至 120.14的 14年高位;澳元及紐元亦應聲抽升,兩種貨幣同創自由浮動以來新高,高見 1.108美元及 87.66美仙。

另一方面,市場亦預期亞洲各國央行將會繼續加息遏通脹,不過現階段難以阻止亞太區貨幣強勢。
由於美國債務上限談判仍未有進展,令美元近期積弱,亞太區貨幣本已備受追捧。不過,馬來西亞、南韓、印度及澳洲等國家近日均釋放出通脹升溫訊息,令亞太區貨幣進一步被炒上。
韓圜今年累升逾 7%

其中南韓圜升至近 3年來高位,兌美元年初至今已累升逾 7%,不過該國政府周二表示通脹問題仍然嚴重,希望盡一切辦法將消費物價指數( CPI)升幅控制在 4%內。
馬來西亞日前亦表示,通脹升溫在國內已成為極關鍵的問題,馬來西亞央行行長上周更表示,現時利率偏低,暗示有加息需要,令馬來西亞貨幣近日不斷攀升,兌美元年初至今已升值逾 4%。印度在周二宣佈加息後,印度盧比昨日續升 0.4%,近期印度盧比升勢為近 7年來最強勁,顯示該國可能仍有加息空間。
澳洲及新西蘭兩個商品及資源國家貨幣,近期亦受惠美元弱勢而備受追捧。其中澳洲昨公佈第二季 CPI升幅高於預期,令澳洲聯儲銀行今年內加息預期升溫,澳元兌美元再創 30年新高 1.108。不過,澳洲財長斯旺強調,不會干預澳元滙率,同時又表示將在年底前決定是否擴大國內債市規模。
債市或加碼 澳元添動力

有分析指,在歐美均受到債務問題困擾的情況下,投資者對美元和歐洲貨幣信心明顯不足。澳元等商品貨幣成為替代美元和歐洲貨幣的首選之一。但澳洲債市的規模較小,難以吸納過多的資金,反而限制澳元的升幅。一旦澳洲決定擴大該國債市規模,澳元料會進一步飆升。新西蘭方面,該國央行將於今日公佈議息結果,市場預期該行會將息口維持於 2.5厘,但下半年則會加息至年初地震前水平,故與澳元齊創新高。

2011年7月27日 星期三

梅新育:美在玩「俄羅斯輪盤」

文匯報

《人民日報》海外版昨日引述中國商務部研究員梅新育報道,美債上限談判僵局揭露美國政治體系最陰暗醜惡的一面,並指國會議員乘機騎劫國家,謀取政治私利。

 梅新育表示,奧巴馬和國會在玩「俄羅斯輪盤」遊戲,互相比較膽量。他還稱,由於現行金融市場定價體系以美債為基準,若美國違約,國際市場將會大亂。不過,他認為違約的可能性不大。

 中國人民大學財政金融學院副院長趙錫軍在該文中則表示,美國兩黨可能最終會在2萬億至4萬億美元 (約15.6萬億至31.2萬億港元)減赤計劃上妥協。梅新育建議,為防美國違約,中國應與美國財政部保持接觸,以施加壓力;其次,若美國違約,中國應做 好國際金融市場可能崩盤的準備。  

■《華爾街日報》

紐約油又上返100

2011年7月26日 星期二

Soros to End Four Decades as Hedge Fund Leader

在亞洲佢依家絕對無優勢, 因為一聽到佢大名, 大家已有解心!

hk.news.yahoo.com

索羅斯結束基金經理生涯

國際著名投資者索羅斯,將結束基金經理生涯,原因是美國證交會明年將實行新的監管法例,令對沖基金運作困難。他旗下的索羅斯基金管理公司,將向街外投資者歸還近十億美元資金。索羅斯基金向投資者發出的信件顯示,基金未來將致力集中為索羅斯本人及家族管理資產。
即將八十一歲的索羅斯,九二年沽空英鎊,成功狙擊英國央行而聞名。他承認在亞洲金融風暴期間,有份衝擊港元,並稱讚港府當年捍衛港元的措施成功。

finance.yahoo.com

George Soros, the billionaire best known for breaking the Bank of England, is returning money to outside investors in his $25.5 billion firm, ending a career as hedge-fund manager that spanned more than four decades.

Soros, who turns 81 next month, will hand back the money, less than $1 billion, by the end of the year, according to two people briefed on the matter. His firm will focus on managing assets solely for Soros and his family, according to a letter to investors. Keith Anderson, 51, chief investment officer since February 2008, is leaving, said the letter, signed by Soros’s sons Jonathan and Robert, who are co-deputy chairmen.

“We wish to express our gratitude to those who chose to invest their capital with Soros Fund Management LLC over the last nearly 40 years,” they said in the letter. “We trust that you have felt well rewarded for your decision over time.”

The move completes Soros’s transformation from a speculator, who in 1992 made $1 billion betting that the Bank of England would be forced to devalue the pound, to philanthropist statesman, a role he first imagined for himself as a Hungarian émigré studying at the London School of Economics after World War II, according to Soros’s writings. In the last 30 years, he’s given away more than $8 billion to promote democracy, foster free speech, improve education and fight poverty around the world, he said in a recent essay.

Family Assets

Soros’s sons said they took the decision because new financial regulations would have made it necessary for the firm to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission by March 2012 if it continued to manage money for outsiders. Because the firm has overseen mostly family assets since 2000, when outside money accounted for about $4 billion, they decided it made more sense to run it as a family office, according to the letter.

The rule calls for hedge funds with more than $150 million in assets to report information about their investors and employees, the assets they manage, potential conflicts of interest and their activities outside of fund advising. Registered funds will also be subject to periodic inspections by the SEC.

“We have relied until now on other exemptions from registration which allowed outside shareholders whose interests aligned with those of the family investors to remain invested in Quantum,” the executives said in the letter, referring to its flagship Quantum Endowment Fund. “As those other exemptions are no longer available under the new regulations, Soros Fund Management will now complete the transition to a family office that it began eleven years ago.”

Druckenmiller’s Move

Soros, who controls more than $24.5 billion for himself, his family and his foundations, declined to comment on the letter. Last year, Stanley Druckenmiller, Soros’s chief strategist from late 1988 until 2000, closed his money- management firm, Duquesne Capital Management LLC, and created his own family office.

While Quantum has returned about 20 percent a year, on average, since 1969, when its predecessor was started, according to a person familiar with the firm, the fund’s performance has suffered in the last 18 months. In the first half of this year, Quantum lost about 6 percent, the person said, following a gain of 2.5 percent in 2010. Other macro funds have returned 5.6 percent in the last year-and-a-half, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Soros was born in Budapest in 1930, as Dzjchdzhe Shorash. When the Nazis invaded the city in 1944, Soros’s father arranged for false papers for his family and friends that identified them as non-Jews. Most of the people his father helped survived the war, Soros said in the essay published in the New York Review of Books in late June.

‘Evil Force’

“Instead of submitting to our fate we resisted an evil force that was much stronger than we were -- yet we prevailed. Not only did we survive, but we managed to help others,” he wrote, adding the experience gave him an appetite for taking risk. “This left a lasting mark on me, turning a disaster of unthinkable proportions into an exhilarating adventure.”

After London, Soros came to New York at the age of 26 and became a trader, initially buying and selling stocks for Wall Street brokerage F.M. Mayer. He planned to work for five years, enough time, he reckoned, to save $500,000 and return to England where he would pursue his philosophical studies, according to an interview he gave to Michael Kaufman, author of “Soros: The Life and Times of a Messianic Billionaire.”

Instead, he stayed in the world of finance, eventually moved to Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder Advisors LLC, where he set up the predecessor to the Quantum fund in 1969. He started his own firm in 1973.

Conflicting Goals

Over the years, Soros had to deal with conflicting goals of making good and doing good. While Soros’s fund made about $750 million betting on a decline in the Thai baht in 1997, the wager increased economic woes in Thailand as the government spent billions unsuccessfully defending its currency. In the wake of the devaluation, Thailand was forced to cut public spending in exchange for a $17.2 billion rescue package from the International Monetary Fund.

In 1997, his philanthropic tendencies drove him to buy Russian assets. He took a $1 billion stake in RAO Svyazinvest, Russia’s state-owned telecommunications company, and went on to buy Russian stocks and bonds. He didn’t sell his positions even after publishing a piece in the Financial Times advising the government to devalue the ruble by 15 percent to 25 percent. Four days later, Russia followed his advice.

“He felt that if he was a beacon of investment in Russia, others would follow and the capital inflows would transform the society and integrate them into the G7,” Robert Johnson, a former Soros managing director, told author Sebastian Mallaby in his book ‘More Money than God.’ “There’s a philanthropic side of George that started to interfere with the speculative one.”

‘Public Interest’

In his recent essay, Soros echoed the remarks of his former colleague.

“I have made it a principle to pursue my self-interest in my business, subject to legal and ethical limitations, and to be guided by the public interest as a public intellectual and philanthropist,” he wrote. “If the two are in conflict, the public interest ought to prevail,” he said.

Soros opened his first foundation, the Open Society Fund, in 1979, when his fund had reached about $100 million and his personal wealth had climbed to about $25 million. His initial focus was on promoting democracy and a market economy in Eastern Europe. Soros now funds a network of foundations that operate in 70 countries around the globe, everywhere from the U.S. to Montenegro to South Africa and Haiti.

In late 1988, he hired Druckenmiller to be his chief strategist to take over the day-to-day trading of the firm’s assets so he could concentrate on his charitable pursuits.

Breaking the BoE

While Druckenmiller was the architect of the $10 billion British pound trade, which forced the currency out of the European exchange-rate mechanism, Soros served as a coach to the younger man, encouraging him to increase his bet.

Druckenmiller left in 2000, together with another star manager, Nick Roditi, after losses when the technology bubble burst. Just two years before, the firm had been the biggest hedge fund in the world with $22 billion in assets, and Soros said it was too much money to manage in such concentrated positions.

After the departures, Soros decided to farm out more money to portfolio managers both inside and outside Soros Fund Management. He said he would settle for a 15 percent annualized return, about half of what the fund had posted since its start.

Stepping In

In 2007, as the subprime mortgage crisis was gaining speed, Soros again stepped in. Quantum returned 32 percent that year and posted an 8 percent gain in 2008, when funds on average dropped about 19 percent. Overall, Quantum Endowment grew from about $11 billion in June 2000 to today’s level.

The firm went through several chief investment officers, including Soros’s son Robert, before hiring Anderson, who was a co-founder at BlackRock Inc. and its global fixed-income chief.

The uncertainty about markets and Quantum’s 6 percent dive caused Anderson to sell positions in mid-June and the firm is now holding about 75 percent cash. It hasn’t been decided whether Jonathan and Robert will hire a new CIO, or whether they will add to their stable of external managers.

In the meantime, Soros continues to focus on his philanthropy and on voicing his views on macroeconomic events, such as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

“My success in the financial markets has given me a greater degree of independence than most other people,” Soros wrote in his recent essay. “This obliges me to take stands on controversial issues when others cannot, and taking such positions has itself been a source of satisfaction. In short, my philanthropy has made me happy.”

美債談判膠着 考起 PIMCO

全世界都認為美國總會達成協議 !
會唔會出現意外驚嚇 ?


蘋果日報

美國就發債上限的談判仍處於膠着狀態,令投資者對於前景感到非常困惑,寧願採取觀望態度。美國國債一直被視為「沒有風險的資產」( Risk free asset),究竟在美債風波中,投資者會拋售美債自保,抑或蜂擁投入國債市場避險?而由於債務到期,美國財政部將於本周拍賣 990億美元的國債,將會帶來啟示性作用,更可能令危機火上加油。有分析指在談判結果未有突破前,預計市場反應不會太熱烈。
股票基金走資 1560億

即使連全球最大債券基金 PIMCO行政總裁埃利安,亦不知怎樣做,表示「正在研究」。事實上,市場大部份投資者都對前景摸不着頭腦,並陷於忐忑不安的情緒中。哈佛商學院經濟政策教授 David Moss指出,現時的狀況極不尋常。投資者可能會瘋狂拋售國債,亦可能按兵不動。
不管如何,投資者的風險胃納正在收縮。不少基金及投資者都開始作出預防措施,例如持有更多現金,避免作出槓桿投資及做好風險管理等。
富達投資貨幣市場部主席 Robert Brown表示,早在一個月前,公司便擬定應急方案,並為國債基金進行一連串壓力測試。
根據投資公司協會的資料,不少散戶投資者近月開始逐步從美國股票基金市場撤資,單是 6月份撤資金額已達 200億美元(約 1560億港元)。有分析師認為,因美債上限談判仍未明朗,投資者傾向採取審慎的觀望態度。華盛頓區投資顧問 David B.Armstrong則認為,投資者對於美債違約問題其實並不擔心,他說:「所有人都在談論,但沒有人真的在害怕。」

2011年7月25日 星期一

全世界等緊美國

華裔研抗菌不鏽鋼 應用醫療廚房

文匯報

英國伯明翰大學冶金與材料學院的華人教授董漢山,透過新技術將銀「擴散進入」不鏽鋼的表面裡,而不是「塗層」或「包覆」在不鏽鋼表面外層,使不鏽鋼的表面不僅能抗菌,而且不易在清潔或消毒過程中磨損,抗菌效果持久不衰。

 研究表面工程的董漢山解釋說,他們以新的「活性屏等離子體」技術,將銀、氮和碳擴散到不鏽鋼的表面裡。不鏽鋼表面加入銀能夠殺菌,加入氮分子和碳分子能提高其硬度和耐磨性。這項表面抗菌的技術能應用在醫院裡,防止超級細菌通過不鏽鋼表面和醫療器材到處散播,還可應用在食品工業上,一般家庭的廚房也需要這項技術。董漢山表示,他們已著手計劃將這項技術應用於商業上,首要目標是與生產醫療器材的廠家洽談。 

■英國廣播公司

2011年7月23日 星期六

iPhone 4模型扮正貨傾銷

蘋果日報

【本報訊】 iPhone 4手機持續熱賣,近日城中出現一名手機老千,斗膽以模型 iPhone 4扮正貨向手機店傾銷。據知旺角先達廣場一名手機商早前中招損失慘重,老千日前再在深水埗出招,終遇機警女店東當面開盒查機識破, 15萬元貨款失而復得。騙局被拆穿,老千棄下 30部手機模型,交還支票落荒而逃。
識破老千局的手機店女東主陳太在深水埗鴨寮街開店,她指「手機老千太猖狂,好彩我今次開紙盒 check機,如果唔係就中計啦!」她說假手機只是 iPhone 4手機模型,「重量同真機有番咁上下」,因為行內人收機時不會開盒檢查,當日心血來潮才開盒檢查發現只是手機模型。

外形顏色與真機無異

她說現時白色 iPhone 4手機回收價每部 5000多元,估計因此吸引老千犯案。在逃手機老千 40歲, 5呎 8吋高,衣着光鮮。
記者所見,假白色 iPhone 4手機外形顏色與真機無異,記者秤重發現假手機連紙盒重 375克,與真機重 412.7克相差無幾。

2011年7月22日 星期五

As China Enters Silver Market, Dark Days Ahead for COMEX

m.minyanville.com

I have been writing for some time that I could not get my hands around the silver trade. I had a feeling when the market went up 202 points on Tuesday that gold and silver would sell off into a healthy pullback, and they both did. Yesterday I was very surprised and confused to see gold and silver put in very strong showings. As I wrote yesterday, I expected them to continue to sell off to about $35.00 in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and $141.50 in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). (See Has the Rally in Gold and Silver Run Out of Steam?) They did not act as scripted. What was I missing?

On Tuesday I spoke to Christian from GoldSilver.com and he pointed me to a link on YouTube by someone using the nom de plume Brother John F. I watched this video in stunned disbelief. This man had a live stream from the Commercial Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) for the minute by minute trades. Silver contracts were selling higher and at about 1:40PM they started to sell off for no reason. Then at 2:03PM there was a trade for 50,000 contracts of silver sold. (This would lead anyone to conclude that the sale was known 23 minutes before it occurred.) This is not a typo -- 50,000 contracts in one minute! Each contract is for 5,000 ounces of silver. So if we do the math 50,000 contracts by 5,000 ounces per contract equals 250,000,000 ounces of paper silver contracts. If we do some further math and we multiply 250,000,000 contracts by the proxy price of silver yesterday, which was $40.00 per ounce, then that trade was for 10 billion dollars in one minute.

I'll this one step further. According to Jason Hommel writing on behalf of the US Mint, the amount of silver produced per year in the entire world is roughly around 680 million ounces and the amount mined in the US last year was 50 million ounces. The amount that was traded on the CME on Tuesday was approximately one third of all of the silver mined in the world. It was 5 times the amount mined in America.

Why is this so troubling? The reason is that there are rumors that the SLV is rumored to not have the silver that the paper purports to represent. There are reports that if SLV was ever called upon to produce the underlying asset it represents it would be unable to do so. Is there any wonder why this commodity is so volatile?

The fact is that the silver market is being manipulated. However, that is about to change. On Friday, July 22nd the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange will start trading dollar denominated silver futures contracts with the hopes of tapping into the growing demand for the metal in China and India. The new contract will enable buyers and sellers in China to trade effectively with their counterparts around the world, while at the same time allowing investors to gain exposure to silver price movements and broaden their investment portfolio. The exchange also plans to roll out Yuan-priced gold and silver futures to capitalize on growing investor demand for China’s strengthening currency. They also have ambitions for products in base metals, energy, and agriculture.

This was the missing piece of the puzzle I could not find. Starting tomorrow the Anglo American monopoly on silver is over. This will be the first time that Asians can buy and take future delivery of silver in Asia. No longer can the CME raise margins close to 100% in eight days. The silver shorts are and should be afraid of the hundreds of millions of Asians that will be entering this small market. China alone has trillions of dollars and they could drop 0.01% of that money into silver, leaving it beyond the control of the American elite.

The one that has the most to fear is the COMEX. Yesterday’s manipulation 23 minutes before the trade of 50,000 contracts was consummated only proves that the exchange has been manipulating the market. There has never been true price discovery as this manipulation of the market has kept the true price of silver hidden. Well, I see dark days ahead for the COMEX. There will be investigations, there will be discoveries, there will be trials, and there will be jail sentences handed out. Market manipulation is not something the Feds take lightly.

I'd encourage readers to buy as much physical silver as they can. Until I am convinced that the markets have established a transparent state where true price discovery is possible I will stay away from paper vehicles. I do exclude Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) form this list as their paper is really backed up by the physical it purports to represent.

George Maniere

今晚匯市大反摯

澳元加幣去返高位 !

2011年7月21日 星期四

Gold May Rally to $1800 and silver to $70

www.bloomberg.com

Gold prices will surge to $1,800 an ounce by the end of this year, and silver will soar to $70 an ounce by March as physical demand climbs in Asia and investors seek a haven asset, Newedge USA LLC said.

“Gold is an excellent hedge in troubled times” as European and the U.S. leaders struggle to resolve debt woes, Mike Frawley, the global head of metals, said yesterday in an interview in New York. Demand for gold and silver will be “very strong long-term from Asia, and the economic trend in the West is improving,” he said.

The gold forecast indicates a 13 percent rally from current levels. The metal climbed to a record $1,610.70 on July 19. The silver estimate means prices will jump 77 percent from yesterday’s closing price. Newedge, based in New York, was the biggest futures-commission merchant by a measure of customer assets on deposit as of May.

Record investment demand for gold in India will keep climbing as higher incomes spur buying, Reliance Capital Asset Management, the operator of the country’s second-biggest fund backed by the metal, said last week. Chinese demand, which increased 32 percent in 2010, may double in the next 10 years, according to the World Gold Council.

Industrial metals such as aluminum and copper will also benefit from robust demand in emerging markets, Frawley said. Aluminum may climb to $3,000 a metric ton in the first quarter, and copper will rise above $10,000 a ton, he said.
‘Very Positive’ Outlook

“Millions of Chinese people are moving from the countryside to cities annually and that migration is leading to new jobs and new wealth, and the money is being invested in various opportunities,” Frawley said. “And you add to that the growth and modernization of India. The outlook for metals is very positive.”

Yesterday, gold futures for August delivery fell $4.20, or 0.3 percent, to $1,596.90 on the Comex in New York. This month, the price rose for 10 straight sessions, the longest rally in 31 years, as debt concerns in the U.S. and Europe escalated.

Gold will climb to $1,900 by October, John Taylor, the founder of FX Concepts LLC in New York, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, said yesterday in an interview in London. His firm manages $8 billion.

Silver futures for September delivery dropped 66.3 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $39.558 yesterday. In January 1980, the metal climbed to a record $50.35. The price reached $49.845 on April 25.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months declined $85, or 0.9 percent, to $9,755 a ton yesterday. On Feb. 15, the metal reached a record $10,190. Aluminum dropped $14, or 0.5 percent, to $2,536 a ton.

澳洲 Perth Mint 做事效率高

剛才收到訂個D銀幣 !
昨天睇網上說會今日4點送到, 而剛才11點已送上來 !

安在家中都可以買到銀幣, 謝謝 !

大家可以諗諗佢: 生日禮物/聖誕禮物/新年紅包/結婚記念禮物 !

金銀初步支持


金在 1580, 而銀在 38 !

2011年7月20日 星期三

不幸身故 強積金如何處理?

文匯報

積哥好友若思的父親上月不幸因病離世。這天,積哥到若思家拜訪,問候她及其家人。若思說:「現在大家的心情總算平伏了。我近日處理爸爸的資產,想起他有強積金供款。這些資產應怎樣處理呢?」

 積哥說:「在強積金制度下,計劃成員身故後,其累算權益便成為遺產的一部分,處理方式與處理其他遺 產項目例如銀行戶口存款、股票或物業等大致相同。」在一般情況下,已故計劃成員的直系親屬,按優先次序為他在生的配偶、子女、父母或兄弟姊妹,可向遺產承 辦處申辦遺產管理書,成為「遺產代理人」,再向強積金受託人辦理提取累算權益之手續。

 積哥接著說:「跟一般計劃成員申請提取強積金一樣,遺產代理人可於積金局網頁下載或向受託人索取 並填寫一份『累算權益申索表格』(表格MPF(S)-W),填妥後連同相關文件,包括遺產代理人的身份證副本、已故計劃成員的死亡證明書副本、遺產承辦處 發出的『遺囑認證』或『遺產管理書』副本等,交回所屬的受託人辦理申索手續。」他補充,受託人有可能要求遺產代理人出示文件正本,以核實資料。

填妥表格連同文件交回受託人

 若思疑感地問:「我不太清楚爸爸有多少個強積金帳戶,該怎麼辦?」積哥著她不用擔心:「你可在積金 局網頁下載一份供已故計劃成員的遺產代理人填寫的『查閱保留帳戶資料申請表格』(表格PA-PR),填妥後再連同遺產代理人的身份證副本及『遺囑認證』或 『遺產管理書』副本,親臨積金局,或以郵遞、傳真方式作出查詢。」積金局核實資料後,便會提供有關計劃成員保留帳戶的受託人資料,遺產代理人便可向有關受 託人查詢帳戶詳情,如戶口結餘,以及辦理申索手續。

市況未明 大鱷要錢不要貨

文匯報

香港文匯報訊  (記者 周紹基) 股市風高浪急,大鱷亦要增持現金避避風頭。為索羅斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management LLC)運作255億美元Quantum Endowment基金的Keith Anderson也怕了目前全球市場的動盪走勢,現金頭寸比例升至75%左右,避免目前承接過多風險。

 據外電報道,兩位知情人士指今年6月中,Anderson告訴他的投資組合經理減持交易頭寸,因為這個對沖基金今年的損失達到6%。這些人士表示,在等待更好投資時機的同時,這基金的現金頭寸比例升至75%左右。這兩位人士拒絕透露姓名,因為這家公司並未公開上市。

對沖基金現金水平一年最高

 市場人士目前都在觀望歐債危機、中國遏制通脹,以及美國債務上限的爭論等一系列全球事件,在事情變 得更明朗之前,普遍基金經理都選擇減少持貨。索羅斯基金管理和Moore Capital Management LLC等多家對沖基金,均降低了投資組合中股票、債券和外匯的頭寸。美國銀行上個月的一項調查顯示,約18%的資產管理機構,包括令人聞風喪膽的對沖基金 都在增持現金,為一年來的最高水平,5月份這個比例只為6%。

 作為Anderson的老闆、股壇狙擊手索羅斯也對目前狀況感到困惑。索羅斯今年4月表示,「我發現目前的狀況比金融危機低谷時更令人難以捉摸、不可預測。」他續指,「市場很不穩定,雖不會立即崩潰,但也沒有快速解決金融困局的方法。」

 有投資者透露,管理著150億美元資產的Moore Capital,旗下的旗艦對沖基金Moore Global在5月和6月份錄得6%的虧損。

保留現金靜待「低吸」時機

 不良債券投資公司Avenue Capital亦正增持現金,創辦人加德納表示,該公司預期會有愈來愈多的歐、美中型企業拖欠債務,現時中型企業的違約率偏低,主要是銀行願意延長貸款, 一旦銀行無法繼續延期,將有大量公司違約,故該公司現保留現金,靜待企業違約時「低吸」相關債務。

 貝萊德副主席瓦格納亦表示,機構大戶在08年金融海嘯後,加強對風險的關注,例如他們會增加流動性資產的比重、提高資產的變現能力。摩通美國機構資產管理主管基廷指出,個人富豪投資客戶目前的現金水平,較08年海嘯前高約一倍。

Phony Default Crisis May Yield Bargains

finance.yahoo.com

If the drama in Washington rattles markets, here's what investors should buy.

America is two weeks away from defaulting on its debt, dramatists in Washington say. Fortunately, this crisis is as phony as a million dollar bill, which is why Treasury bond prices have barely flinched, which in turn is why the players involved will mug for the crowd until the last possible moment before striking a deal.

That doesn't mean investors should shrug the whole thing off. As Monday's steep decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed, fake crises can produce real losses for investors. They can also provide some excellent buying opportunities.

In brief, there are at least four reasons not to fear a U.S. default. First, the debt limit America breached in May and must raise by Aug. 2 is an artificial barrier created by Congress mostly so that its parties can scold each other every so often about having to expand it. They have done so 11 times since 1940 (and many more times through extending deadlines and stretching definitions). Second, world demand for U.S. Treasury bonds remains ample, with China, Japan and Britain raising their holdings of late.

Third, under the gloomier of two sets of long-term projections by the Congressional Budget Office, federal debt won't hit unprecedented levels relative to the size of the economy until at least 2025. Fourth, as I've noted before, the U.S. budget shortfall isn't nearly as worrisome as European ones because America overspends on health care and defense by preposterous margins, and can therefore extract vast spending cuts from a handful of painless reforms the moment it musters the political will.

Of course, the U.S. can't necessarily prevent a threatened downgrade of its credit rating by Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch. But if the Treasury market is impressed with the opinions of those firms, it hasn't demonstrated it. The 30-year yield rose Monday, but the 10-year yield recently slipped below 3%. That's less than half its average in Fed data going back to the Korean War.

Such low rates make Treasury bonds unappealing at the moment, despite their credit safety. Corporate bonds look similarly overpriced but municipals are somewhat more attractive by comparison, with tax-free yields of 3.2% on 10-year, A-rated issues. Shares of large, multinational companies look cheap, meanwhile. The largest 5% of U.S. firms by stock market value trade at a modest 13 times this year's earnings forecast and carry an average dividend yield of around 3%—half again as high as the broader market's yield. AT&T (NYSE: T - News), Pfizer (PFE - News), Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM - News) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC - News) pay an average of 4.3%.

Gold topped $1,600 an ounce Monday, up 8% since the start of July. It might gain more, but what gold can't do is provide its owners with income or any intrinsic justification for its price. Those are two sources of much-needed support when asset prices broadly fall. Investors who are keen to hold commodities should consider dabbling in a diversified basket of grains, energy and metals, like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking fund (DBC - News).

Among the best things to hold during a phony default crisis is cash. It pays next to nothing, but the dollar looks cheap relative to the euro based on purchasing power parity (a comparison of local costs) and if policy makers in coming days overplay their role and rattle foreign creditors, bonds might swoon and offer better yields, and shares might tumble in the U.S. and abroad. Long-term, however, all the breast-beating in Washington is a promising sign. It means law-makers are properly serious about the importance of deficit cuts. If the drama creates bargains in the near-term, here's hoping the results are worth it.

2011年7月19日 星期二

一盎司金幣升上13000樓上


www.bochk.com

銀器小知識


紋銀鍊, 18", 重約兩錢幾, 180蚊

剛買咗一條銀鍊有寫[紋銀].
由於紋銀和寶銀都是成色高過925, 所以請大家唔好衝摯銀舖仔推高價格 !
多謝honson俾我地址買咗個好似金舖用的放大鏡(280蚊名廠鏡), 可以睇到印在銀鍊的字啦 !

以版友要求, 放大鏡地址是 : 南與鐘表行, 油麻地白加士街 117號地下 ! (不是賣廣告, 因為我無錢收的) !

zh.wikipedia.org

起源

採用紋銀作為貨幣單位的原因在於,中國古代實際流通的銀兩成色不一,名目眾多,有「元絲」、「青絲」、「白絲」、「水絲」、「西鏪」、「石鏪」、「柳鏪」、「茶花」、「茴香」、「單傾」、「雙傾」等多種名色,這些種類不同的金屬銀需要折算為全國統一的計量單位,以便於統計稅收。

換算

按照清朝的官定標準,足色紋銀的成色為93.5374%,稱為「十足成紋」。清制規定紋銀一兩等於制錢1000文,但乾隆朝之後,由於私鑄劣錢增多和白銀外流,經常出現錢賤銀貴的現象。

其他流通銀

在實際流通領域中的金屬銀,成錠者稱「寶 銀」,即鑄成元寶形式的銀錠。寶銀的成色通常全都高於紋銀。由於各地寶銀成色不一,因此在其前面冠以地名,或申水標準,如蘇寶銀、武昌寶銀,足寶、二四寶、二五寶、二六寶等等。

「二四寶」即每五十兩貼水二兩四錢,一錠五十兩的「二四寶」銀錠折算為五十二兩四錢標準紋銀。

沒落

鴉片戰爭之後,銀兩、銀元在中國同時流通,但官方統計賦稅、制訂預算、對外賠款時仍使用庫平兩和關平兩紋銀作為計量單位。1933年國民黨政府宣布廢兩改元,紋銀退出流通領域。

中銀永隆「逆按揭」開齋

利或弊要十幾廿年後先會知 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 馬子豪)安老按揭計劃(又稱「逆按揭」)於上周推出後,昨日終於開齋。中銀香港(2388)昨表示,已接到該行首宗申請。而永隆銀行昨日則獲香港按揭證券公司正式批准首宗安老按揭貸款申請。

中銀一周接逾130查詢

 中銀表示,該名申請客戶已獲該行專責人員解釋產品特點,並已接受輔導顧問講解產品的法律權益與責任,並獲發輔導證書。中銀又指出,自該產品推出一個星期內,該行接獲逾130個客戶查詢,反應理想,而查詢的客戶所持之物業大多為中型至大型住宅。

 另外,永隆銀行表示,昨日獲香港按揭證券公司正式批准首宗安老按揭貸款申請。該行按揭及私人貸款中心主管蔡爾全表示,自上星期推出「安老按揭」計劃後,接獲不少客戶查詢,並於一星期內完成首宗安老按揭貸款申請。

永隆客戶申請已獲批

 蔡爾全指,為加快協助對計劃感興趣的長者的貸款申請流程,該行於計劃推出之前,已預先完成安老按揭貸款服務的準備工作及為提供相關服務的同事安排培訓課程,確保客戶可於短時間內完成申請。

 據介紹,有意申請計劃的市民可通過「安老按揭計劃」,利用在港的自住物業作為抵押品,於選定的年金年期內(10年、15年、20年或終生)每月取得年金,增加退休生活保障,同時可繼續安居於該物業直至百年歸老。

 安老按揭計劃利率以按證公司釐定為準,現為該公司公佈的香港最優惠利率減2.5厘。借款人亦可申請 提取一筆過貸款,以應付特別情況。除非貸款因特定情況而被終止,借款人終生毋須還款。此外,計劃不設提前清償貸款的罰款,借款人可隨時全數償還貸款及贖回 物業而毋須繳交任何罰款。

失業夫婦自印百萬偽鈔度日

勁 ! 真當自己是白南克 !

文匯報

據中通社18日電 失業五年,仍可生活無憂,台灣新北市劉氏夫婦有「秘訣」,兩人靠家中的噴墨打印機印刷百元 (新台幣,下同)的偽鈔,再趁高峰時間到街市、小商店購物竟屢屢得手,劉氏夫婦在過去5年來憑此「手藝」過活,真正做到「沒錢自己印」。但上得山多終遇虎,兩人終於在17日被拆穿把戲。

 42歲男子劉昌泰和其37歲妻子鄭心惠供稱,案發當天已在同一市場內成功騙過兩名商家,未想在第三家小食店購買仙草凍時,遭姓姚的小販揭穿把戲。姚先生表示,收了錢後,覺得紙鈔「摸起來怪怪的」,仔細檢查發現防偽線竟是一段段剪貼上去的膠帶,於是追上正在其他商販消費的劉氏夫妻,大斥:「你們用假鈔!」姚先生當場報警將二人拘捕。

 警方表示,兩人在過去5年已透過相同手法行使超過100萬元的假鈔,目前正追查該筆已流入市場,數量逾萬張的假鈔之去向。有關假鈔製作水平粗糙,或因為市場、夜市的攤販在繁忙時間內,對於百元鈔票比較沒有警覺心,因此兩人竟憑此手法行使偽鈔五年而不被發現。

金和銀都升破阻力位


睇下金守唔守到 1600之上, 而銀守唔守到 40之上 !

2011年7月18日 星期一

新限量版銀幣網

小新問:

想問下係邊有得睇新銀幣..
我都好想買多D保障下自己D錢/股票 0.0"
想問下係咩網有得睇新銀幣?
好想做收藏家 累積財富
我得20歲.屋企人成日都話我"大想頭"= ="

回小新,
想保障自己財富買實銀, 就最好買最少溢價的實銀, 如Kitco 銀和利昌銀 !(請睇本網[投資金銀手冊]
限量版銀唔係唔可以買, 不過如果有人只用純銀價幫你回收, 你會蝕錢 !

以下是幾個新出金銀幣網:

1. 中國長城硬幣投資有限公司
(可以留意新貨, 不過唔係成日有新金銀幣發售)

2. Royal Canada Mint 加拿大金銀幣廠
(不過唔運貨來亞洲, 香港代理是 國際金錢(香港)有限公司, 而價錢會貴過由廠直接訂貸 !)

3. The Perth Mint 澳洲金銀幣廠
(今早試過訂幾個1/10oz樹熊銀幣, 勁方便又易用, 又可以訂夠 300澳元 free shipping)

註: 買金銀幣, 一定要留意金銀純度和重量, 去衡量金銀幣的合理價錢 !

本人發覺, 好多新幣會愈溝愈淡, 而多數在英國出的新銀幣都是用925純度(sterling silver) !

2011年7月17日 星期日

外國銀幣網

www.silverbullionworld.com

一個好值得睇的銀幣網, 可以睇到到今日為至已出版的外國銀幣 !
睇多D, 學多D, 可以預防自己買到假幣 !

保險公司面臨退保風險

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】中國保監會主席吳定富表示,內地上半年保險投資收益為2.09%,期內全國實現保費按年升13%。而他績稱,今年以來,資本市場低迷及加息,令所有權益價值縮水,保險公司的償付能力充足率受到較大影響,部分產品面臨一定退保的風險。

骨牌效應 韓物價接連飆漲

tw.money.yahoo.com

(中央社記者姜遠珍首爾2011年7月17日專電)南韓物價飆漲告急,食、衣、住、行相關各項公共費用一連串調漲,呈現出驚人的骨牌效應,使老百姓的生活增添重重壓力。

南韓「聯合新聞通訊社」今天報導,儘管南韓政府聲稱要控制物價,但年初開始上漲的原物料價格居高不下,導致各種消費材料價格水漲船高,令政府措手不及。

南韓中央銀行-「韓國銀行」已將今年的消費者物價上漲率預測值上調到4%,這已是南韓消費者物價連續6個月上漲超過4%。

據統計,南韓政府為穩定民生物價而重點管理的所謂「李明博物價」52項物品中,已有41項呈現價格上漲趨勢。

由於食品價格上漲,餐飲行業也上調價格,使腰包較緊的很多上班族開始帶便當,便利店的便當銷量也急劇增加。

不僅是吃,住、行方面的物價上漲。據國民銀行的調查統計,6月全國房租(只支付接近房價8成的高額押金,不必交月租)租金,比去年同期上升11.3%。至於月租租金,也比去年同期上升2.8%,創下15年來最高漲幅。

分析指出,下半年南韓生活壓力將更趨恐怖,水電費也要跟著上漲。首先,南韓政府將於本月發表電費上漲方針。知識經濟部表示,上漲幅度會控制在消費者物價上漲率以下。

今年已上漲2次的都市瓦斯價格,瓦斯公司要求再上調5.6%以上,但南韓政府決定7月至8月凍結瓦斯價格,因此,很有可能在9月上調價格。郵政、鐵路、交通費等地方公共收費預計會上漲10%以上。

南韓行政安全部6月底發表地方公共收費管理方針,對不得不調整價格的公車、地鐵定下收費標準。如首爾、仁川、京畿道的上調幅度為10.4%以下。

美債後信用必受損 金價原物料可能上飆

tw.money.yahoo.com

穆迪繼標普後也宣布將美國債信列入負面觀察名單,並警告美國如果沒有對「是否提高國債上限」達成共識,將有可能下調美國債信評等。市場觀察,國際信評機構動作不斷,「美債風暴」的形成可能在所難免,學者認為,就算問題暫時獲得解決,後續效應也不容小看,很有可能造成美元大貶值,金價及原物料受衝擊而飆漲等負面影響。(何庭歡報導)

在白宮會談結束後,美國債務問題談判依然膠著。對此,政大金融系教授殷乃平表示,本次無論提高國債上限的決議如何,美國的信用評等都會大打折扣,發行債券的價格也會下跌,或是利率拉高,必定會對市場造成危機。

『一旦這些債券都被拋售出來,不但會影響到債券市場的崩潰,同時也會造成美元在市場大幅的貶值,甚至美元在國際市場上的崩盤這種危機。整個世界的金融市場就會因為他而動盪不安。』

殷乃平也指出,當美國債信對國際金融市場造成影響後,相對大家對貨幣的信任度就會降低,可能導致美元被大量拋售,換取可以避險的大眾物資,使物價飆升。

『黃金一定會飆漲,因為美元大家預期會貶值嘛!那大眾物資會不會漲?這要看如果美元貶值的很快的話,整個世界的油價也好,其他的大眾物資也好,可能價格都會受到衝擊。』

殷乃平分析,本次美債事件長期來說都是負面的影響,或許美國短期內能夠透過提高國債上限,讓經濟暫時穩住陣腳,但是否恢復正常的復甦成長就需要再觀察。

日本福島再多84隻牛受核污染已流入多市

hk.news.yahoo.com

日本福島縣發現多八十四隻受核污染的牛隻,並且已流入東京、宮城、福島、山形、埼玉的市面,當局正追蹤有問題牛肉的去向,當地早前已發現四十二隻牛隻有問題。
另外,當局發現五個農戶,用含有放射性銫的稻草餵飼牛隻。其中在郡山市的農戶,稻草的銫含量,超過日本法定安全標準約三百八十倍,他飼養的牛,尿液樣本亦含有銫

2011年7月16日 星期六

Could silver one day be worth more than gold?

news.silverseek.com

Summer time is a chance for re-reading investment classics at ArabianMoney. We’ve just been dipping into the 2008 ‘Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver’ by Michael Maloney, and find that pretty much everything he predicted has come right.

If you bought silver when this book came out then you have probably doubled your money today, and briefly sat on a three-fold profit back in April this year. ArabianMoney is confident that April’s spike will be passed this autumn, so loading up on silver in the quiet summer months is our best tip right now.

Silver, not gold

However, we were still struck by Mr. Maloney’s conclusion that the silver price will one day exceed that of gold. That is an absolutely extraordinary claim as striking now as it was three years ago.

But we can see a scenario that could get silver more highly valued than gold. It would require a hyperinflation of a kind not seen in the advanced economies since Germany in the early 1920s, or at the very least a long period of elevated monetary inflation.

At the moment gold is the currency of choice among precious metal investors but this could change, particularly if the kind of price momentum we saw from last autumn to this spring is repeated. Everybody loves to jump on a winning trade.

The thing is that physical silver is in very short supply, and the situation in the Comex futures market is one of artifical price suppression that teeters on the brink of a breakdown. How else could any commodity be priced at less than it was 30 years ago?

Physical shortage

So if the Comex price fixing is broken by overwhelming physical demand, and a momentum trade develops in a tighly supplied market then you do have the potential for an exponentially soaring silver price. Those presently stashing their insurance money in gold would therefore be tempted to switch part of it into silver, and so the price would go up and up.

Perhaps in that dynamic the price of gold might begin to weaken, or certainly not to rise at all. Silver could then in a super price spike shoot past the gold price. But this would be like the dot-com bubble of the late 90s and after a short time the speculative fever would burn out and the price collapse.

However, the point to note is that silver prices are low now with massive upside potential if the bull market in precious metals continues and the global economy does not fall into a deflationary depression.

Summer time is a chance for re-reading investment classics at ArabianMoney. We’ve just been dipping into the 2008 ‘Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver’ by Michael Maloney, and find that pretty much everything he predicted has come right.

If you bought silver when this book came out then you have probably doubled your money today, and briefly sat on a three-fold profit back in April this year. ArabianMoney is confident that April’s spike will be passed this autumn, so loading up on silver in the quiet summer months is our best tip right now (click here).

Silver, not gold

However, we were still struck by Mr. Maloney’s conclusion that the silver price will one day exceed that of gold. That is an absolutely extraordinary claim as striking now as it was three years ago.

But we can see a scenario that could get silver more highly valued than gold. It would require a hyperinflation of a kind not seen in the advanced economies since Germany in the early 1920s, or at the very least a long period of elevated monetary inflation.

At the moment gold is the currency of choice among precious metal investors but this could change, particularly if the kind of price momentum we saw from last autumn to this spring is repeated. Everybody loves to jump on a winning trade.

The thing is that physical silver is in very short supply, and the situation in the Comex futures market is one of artifical price suppression that teeters on the brink of a breakdown. How else could any commodity be priced at less than it was 30 years ago?

Physical shortage

So if the Comex price fixing is broken by overwhelming physical demand, and a momentum trade develops in a tighly supplied market then you do have the potential for an exponentially soaring silver price. Those presently stashing their insurance money in gold would therefore be tempted to switch part of it into silver, and so the price would go up and up.

Perhaps in that dynamic the price of gold might begin to weaken, or certainly not to rise at all. Silver could then in a super price spike shoot past the gold price. But this would be like the dot-com bubble of the late 90s and after a short time the speculative fever would burn out and the price collapse.

However, the point to note is that silver prices are low now with massive upside potential if the bull market in precious metals continues and the global economy does not fall into a deflationary depression.

By: Peter Cooper

金銀企在高位


市場在等美國動向 !

本人認為, 如果銀價企穩38美元之上, 可能會見返上次的高位49美元 !

2011年7月15日 星期五

Kitco 買銀幣記 (4)

今日終於有時間出去上環Kitco買銀, 買咗一盎司銀塊 ! 雖然價是升咗, 不過還是三百幾蚊一盎司的銀, 睇怕將來買唔到啦 !

我也去過好旺角中心東洋睇一睇:
1oz兔銀幣- 480蚊
1oz樹熊 - 460蚊
1oz奧地利音樂隊 - 400蚊

2011年7月14日 星期四

靜待金價1600美元的到來

hk.biz.yahoo.com

美聯儲主席伯南克昨天在向國會作證時表示,如果美國經濟看來處於停滯風險中,聯儲局將準備採取進一步的貨幣刺激政策,刺激現貨金價走高。

就黃金價格的變動,知名財經作家、黃金研究員肖磊於微博表示,機構的眼睛是雪亮的,思維是敏捷的,自從白宮被爆有意助推QE3之後,全球最大黃金專 業投資基金SPDR即刻一次性加倉約20噸,黃金價格直接衝破每盎司1,580關口,距離1,600美元僅一步之遙,而1,600美元曾是各大銀行及機構 預測的年內最高點。

肖磊稱:「此時,什麼都不用說,因為語言是蒼白的,我們靜待黃金價格1,600美元的到來。如果爽約,大家就可以大談特談了;甚至可以互相攻擊,指責對方判斷錯誤,並周而復始的繼續重複同樣的事情,做一個憤青般的普通投資者。」

此外,肖磊還表示了對黃金長期投資價值的看好。他指出,在經過了黃金十年的牛市行情之後,投資者突然發現,價值和趨勢性投資並不是傳說,內地市場也能做長期投資,只是品種的選擇不同罷了。

廣東粵寶黃金投資公司的官方微博上則分析了金價短線的利好與利空:利好因素包括昨天伯南克的講話,惠譽將希臘長期外幣及本幣發行國違約評級下調至CCC,並將希臘短期外幣IDR下調至C,以及巴克萊黃金ETF增持2.28噸。利空因素則是,從技術分析的角度,金價有回調的要求。


華富財經新聞

網址 : www.quamnet.com

Ron Paul Attacks Bernanke on Gold

www.thestreet.com

NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Congressman Ron Paul's commitment to the gold standard was on display today as he challenged Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on whether the precious metal is considered a form of currency.

During his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke was hardly allowed to speak as Paul grilled the head of the Fed.

Paul: The price of gold today is $1,580 the dollar during these last few years the dollar was devalued almost 50%. When you wake up in the morning, do you care about the price of gold?

Bernanke: Well, I pay attention to the price of gold but I think it reflects a lot of things. It reflects global uncertainties. The reason people hold gold is its protection against what we call tail risk ... they have gold as a protection.

Paul: Do you think gold is money?

Bernanke: [Long pause] No.

Bernanke went on to acknowledge that gold is an asset and that central banks hold it as reserves. Paul demanded to know why the Fed didn't hold diamonds as an asset instead of gold if it wasn't really money and Bernanke, who seemed stumped, said it was a "long term tradition."

Paul has denounced the Federal Reserve for his entire 35 year tenure in Congress and has been the gold standard's biggest advocate, something he danced around with Bernanke. Getting the Fed chairman to admit that gold was a form of money would underscore Paul's belief that gold is a more valuable form of money than paper currencies. Since the Fed started pumping money into the system in November of 2008, gold prices have climbed 113% while the U.S. dollar index has sunk 13%. Gold hit an intra-day record Wednesday of $1,588.90 an ounce.

Many experts think that high gold prices are actually a reflection on the lack of faith in the U.S. dollar. With real interest rates negative -- interest rate minus the inflation rate -- gold has made an attractive alternative to paper money. The real interest in the U.S., at the top end, is negative 1.05% which means that each dollar is worth around 90 cents whereas each ounce of gold is worth more than $1,580.

In a recent interview with TheStreet, Paul said, "At one time the ratio of dollars to gold was $20 to 1 ounce, now it's over $1,500. They'll lose control, people will panic out of the dollar, then you'll see gold at maybe $5,000 to $10,000 ... But now we're losing the trust and we're only waiting on that day, so when that happens there will be a restoration of sound money to some degree."

Paul thinks that Washington will come to its senses before gold hits $10,000 an ounce and crack its fiscal whip, "we're going to quit spending, quit printing money and then restore confidence, but it's up for grabs because the bubble is bigger than ever before."
Paul advocates returning to the Constitutional mandate of using gold and silver as legal tender and then letting the people chose which they would rather trade in gold or paper. "I want to legalize the trading in gold and silver, no taxes, no sales taxes, no capital gains taxes. " Paul hopes if given this option that individuals would opt for gold and silver, making the U.S. dollar more obsolete.

"Gold, if you pick up a coin minted 6,000 years ago, you'd still have your money. If you pick up a piece of paper printed a year ago, it might be worth half its value. So history is on my side of the argument," says Paul.

If a true gold standard were to go into effect, meaning that every dollar was replaced with gold, then the gold price would have to skyrocket to $5,000 or the government would have to extract $9 trillion out of the system. Paul concedes that might happen but that it would be worth the pain.

Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.com says that Bernanke will be crucified by Paul and his followers for not saying gold is money but that Bernanke was not wrong. "We all know the date and the time when gold stopped being money. This is all about perception, sentimentalism, and reality being at odds with each other ... Anyone who acknowledges that inescapable reality will promptly be dismissed by the gold bugs as a heretic."

With Paul announcing that he will no longer seek re-election to Congress but is instead putting all his eggs in the Presidential basket, he is no doubt hoping other people see his side of the gold coin.

金銀無法擋

hk.news.yahoo.com

美國聯儲局主席伯南克,出席國會聽證會,發表半年度貨幣政策報告時表示,假如經濟持續呆滯,增長乏力,聯儲局已準備好,推出額外的刺激經濟措施,包括購入新一輪的國庫債券。伯南克的講話,刺激美股升幅顯著擴大至逾百分之一,道指最多升逾160點,重上一萬二千六百點水平。
受到美股帶動,連日弱勢的歐洲股市亦向好,其中德國股市升近百分之一。歐元由四個月低位反彈,重上1.41美元平。不過歐洲債務危機的陰霾揮之不去,資金流往金市避險,刺激金價創歷史新高,現貨金高見1586.1美元,升百之二。

2011年7月13日 星期三

美債務談判 靠中間方案救亡

文匯報

美國商討提高債務上限進入關鍵時刻,總統奧巴馬將於香港時間今晨3時45分,與國會領袖在白宮連續第3日商談,務求趕及在本月22日前達成協議。分析指出,雖然兩黨就加稅問題爭持不下,但雙方重量級人物都已提出一些中間方案,方案能否突圍而出將左右大局。

 奧巴馬表示,本周雙方將會每天會面,直至達成方案為止。民主黨人提出,如果共和黨同意在2013年讓富人不再享有前總統小布什實施的稅務寬減,民主黨便會致力改革稅制,在擴闊稅基的同時,民眾繳稅額也可望減少。共和黨對此未予支持。

 共和黨眾議院2號人物康托爾則提出堵塞稅制漏洞,並向大型能源公司停止稅務寬減,條件是在其他地方減稅。分析認為此舉既可讓民主黨人表示成功爭取加稅,又可讓共和黨人宣稱成功爭取不加稅,但民主黨人反對方案。

 美國法定債務上限為14.29萬億美元(約111萬億港元),現已超標,靠華府官員倚賴會計手段拖延。但財政部表示,美國將於下月2日真正到達債務上限,屆時華府可能要停止向債券持有人、公務員和退休人士等付款。

 有經濟學家警告,如果美國違約,便會喪失借貸能力,不但危及國家經濟,和中國(現持有最多美債)的關係也會受影響。 

■路透社/綜合外電消息

港禁止電訊服務約滿自動延期

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者聶曉輝)電訊服務營辦商與用戶過去出現的「強行續約」、「濫收費」及「蚊型字體條款」等糾紛有望解決。電訊管理局表示,由本月起,香港所有電訊營辦商在要求客戶續約或簽訂新約時,須參照業界自訂的實務守則,例如主動上門邀請客戶簽訂的合約,需設最少7天冷靜期;營辦商亦不能在未獲客戶同意前,自動替其續約。然而,如營辦商已向客戶提供服務或贈送禮品,冷靜期或會自動取消。電訊管理局表示,若果電訊商違反守則,可能會被視為誤導,當局有權調查。

 電訊局2009年共接獲4,051宗投訴,當中952宗涉及電訊服務合約糾紛,有關數字去年分別升至5,711宗及1,466宗;今年首5個月則接獲567宗涉及電訊服務合約糾紛的投訴。香港通訊業聯會去年12月制定《電訊服務合約業界實務守則》(下稱守則),以自我規管方式向業界提供為客戶擬訂電訊合約的指引,並於本月1日起生效。

合約需淺白 字體禁蚊型

 按照業界守則規定,電訊營辦商向客戶提供的書面合約需以淺白文字印刷,字體大小亦有規定,合約內容須清晰列明內容、收費、續約安排等細節,如經電話訂立的合約,則須附加書面確認;客戶亦可自由選擇退出任何免費試用服務而不需付款。

 電訊局助理總監劉光祥指出,如果有關合約是由營辦商上門向客戶推銷而簽訂,客戶須享有至少7天冷靜期,該段期間可取消合約而毋須繳付任何費用。但他亦指出,如營辦商已為客戶安裝線路、啟用服務或向其奉送贈品等,冷靜期則不適用;然而,營辦商必須確認客戶已知悉有關取消冷靜期的安排。

守則屬自願 違規不受罰

 另方面,如未獲客戶同意,電訊商不可自動續約,且須在約滿前至少30天通知客戶商談續約。此外,客戶亦有權提早終止合約,營辦商必須在合約內清楚訂明相關手續或收取費用。營辦商如單方面更改合約條款,亦須提早30天通知客戶,如涉及加價等對客戶有較大影響的改動,客戶應有權無條件終止合約。

 電訊營辦商會陸續將新標準合約送交電訊局監察,劉光祥相信,消費者今後在簽訂新電訊合約時,將可獲更全面的保障。不過,由於守則屬自願性,營辦商出現違規情況亦毋須受罰。劉光祥強調,如客戶有任何投訴,電訊局會協助跟進,並密切監察守則的實施情況,審視成效,日後再決定是否進一步改善守則。

 電訊局建議消費者在訂立新合約或續訂現有合約時,要閱讀及清楚明白合約內容,有需要時可參考業界守則的相關條文,如有任何疑問,應要求服務供應商詳細解釋有關合約條款。

IBond 可有可無

因為銀行度有綜合戶口, 一定要擺咁多資金在內唔係須俾月費, 所以諗住用個戶口來買iBond, 就算是一萬蚊都無所謂啦, 而以前都買過銀行出的存款証, 但原來一定要你開個証券戶口, 勁麻煩, 因為唔想再多個無用的戶口 !

剛才打去證券行問, 不過一早已諗到, 證券行除咗佣金之外須收100蚊的認購費, 而將來說不定會收你代收利息費, 所以放棄了申請, 而拿個一萬蚊去買實銀好過啦 !

IBond 本來的用意是幫補市民抗通脹, 不過出來的較果是幫銀行拉股票客 ! 睇怕銀行家的影響力真係好大 !

2011年7月12日 星期二

睇歷史估現況

睇返歷史, 一個戰爭唔可以幾年就搞掂, 而多數要用成十年時間 !
依家的貨幣戰爭, 睇怕唔會一兩年就搞掂 !

歷史的教訓, 民眾永遠是俾剪羊毛的一群 ! 只睇返日本當時股市去到三萬點, 而近年只在一萬點上落, 永遠反唔到身 ! 香港的股民, 愈跌愈買, 有無諗過股市永遠唔會再去返三萬點呢 ?
愈跌愈買, 只會成為大鱷的提款機 !

投資的目的, 最少是保到資產的價值, 而唔係遠期的夢想, 股市會有日去到三、四萬點 ! 賭錯邊, 永遠去唔到財務自由的佳景 !

奧巴馬:美國出現債務違約是不可接受

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 美國總統奧巴馬表示,美國出現債務違約是不可接受的事,他會每天與國會領袖見面,盡最大努力說服國會議員提高國債上限,避免美國出現債務違約。

2011年7月11日 星期一

金價行先

市場在等Obama十一點講野, 而金價行先 !

歐美股市跌緊 !

安老按揭今日推出

文匯報

香港文匯報訊 (記者 馬子豪) 由按揭證券公司推出的安老按揭(逆按揭)計劃詳情將於今日公布,料將有約6至7家銀行與牽頭的按揭證券公司簽約推出計劃。

 參與安老按揭計劃的長者,可透過將物業向銀行機構進行抵押貸款,每月收取以作日常開支,年期介乎 10年至終身,而長者可在物業內居住至百年歸老。日後長者的繼後人,可選擇支付本金、利息及保費等以贖回物業;或可由銀行將物業變賣,扣除成本後若有餘額則歸予繼後人,虧損則由按證公司「包底」。

 如長者以單人身份借款,以每100萬元樓宇價值來計,可較二人共同借款收取較多的年金,每月大約可多取200至500元。以一位60歲長者持有100萬元物業而言,參與終生計劃每月可獲取約2,000元,夫婦共同申請則每月約獲1,800元。

 逆按揭的申請費用眾多,包括年利率、保費、輔導費、手續費,以及驗樓費和律師費。有報道指出,安老按揭的利率已定為P減2.5厘,即實際息率為2.75厘。而長者需承擔的保費有兩種,包括首次繳付保費以及每月保費。首次繳付保費,按證公司原意為即時收取樓價的2%作為保費,現在改由計劃第四年開始,分七期收取,即第4-10年,每期收取0.28%;至於每月保費年息為年金之1.25%,不論單人或二人申請保費均相同。

2011年7月10日 星期日

金價便宜未現泡沫

蘋果日報

歐債焦點由希臘轉至葡萄牙,加上美債上限的爭議,「債」似乎是個沒完沒了的故事。
雖然違約或破產是終止危機最乾脆的辦法,可是在金融海嘯 3周年的當下,各國尤其是美歐似乎已不想再面對這辦法帶來的「短暫痛苦」,情願把問題盡量拖延。危機浮現初期即使不一定是「大得不能倒下」,卻因長期「以債冚債」,最終越滾越大並自我成就了「大得不能倒下」這句話。
若堅持不以違約的手法解決,可行辦法就只有印鈔及貨幣貶值。黃金自 08年底每盎斯 700美元,升至現時 1500美元,不但反映新興國家如中國、印度、俄羅斯及中東等國看穿了問題的真相,亦反映全球富人越來越擔心財富貶值而積極把紙幣轉移至各類實物資產。

9月底前料破 1600

筆者認為當前金價不但不存在泡沫,而且從任何基本因素來看都顯得十分便宜。 80年代金價曾高見 850美元,當時美國負債水平為 9300億美元,兩者比例為 0.09;去年底金價為 1420美元,但美國負債已升至 14萬億美元,比例是 0.01。美債規模比 80年已大幅飆升,考慮到泡沫式的債務膨脹,金價仍具龐大的「追落後」空間。
此外,負利率亦有助推升金價。美息長期低企,除了經濟原因,其實也有財務的原因,皆因美國政府是不會以高息來「懲罰」自己的償債及償息能力。
過去 40年,當實質負利率超過 1.7厘時,金價一年期平均升 20%。傳統上, 7月是金價最淡靜的月份,在過去 40年錄得正回報的機會率只有 49%;但踏入 8、 9月,機會率卻升至六成以上的全年高位,而 8月至 1月也是全年表現最強勁的一段時間。
在過去兩年多,約每隔 6個月金價便回歸至接近其 150日線,並於隨後兩三個月內出現兩至三成的升幅(見圖),短炒或長線投資者均可以此作為參考。筆者並不建議把黃金看作短炒工具,因當前央行干預動作頻密,短線走勢已被扭曲,但長線黃金卻是對冲債務危機的必備項目。
筆者預期金價在 9月底前將可突破 1600美元,明年 3月底前可望升至 1800美元;但無論短線目標能否如期達到,金價升勢料將延續好幾年。

潘國光

四大暗湧 內銀股未跌完

蘋果日報

屋漏偏逢連夜雨,說的正是今年弱過藥煲的內銀股。無可否認,內銀股估值非常吸引(市盈率 PE 10倍樓下,市賬率 PB 1倍,息率 4厘以上),但「平嘢冇好嘢」,股價今年疲不能興,是大戶先知先覺,知道潛在問題未浮上面。隨着淡馬錫狠沽建行( 939)及中行( 3988),其他策略股東往後很大機會跟風跳船,加上以萬億元計地方融資債務危機、多間同業須供股集資應付銀行新規定,及要上繳一成股息稅,四大暗湧,下半年陸續殺埋身。散戶撈內銀隨時越撈越「底」。

暗湧1)解禁潮殺到 股東紛套現

如果淡馬錫日前搶閘沽中行及建行是小兒科,農行( 1288)及建行未來兩個月共逾 2000億元限售股解禁,勢必進一步打殘內銀。
年報顯示,農行本周末將有 132.84億股股份禁售期屆滿,市值逾 500億元,當中最大批是卡塔爾投資局,持股逾 68億股。
近月多國政府為遏抑通脹,紛紛加息「收水」,令市場缺水情況嚴重,內銀限售股解禁正好成為外資股東的「提款機」,以解燃眉之急,相信掟貨行動陸續有來。
至於沽貨重頭戲,要數美銀持有的 255.8億股建行股份,將於下月 29日解禁,現價計市值約 1600億元。值得注意,美銀已將該批股份在賬面上重新列為「可供銷售證券」類別,沽貨可能性頗高,藉以提高資本充足水平。若要一鋪清貨,無可避免要大折讓始獲承接,屆時內銀全線恐崩危。

社保無面畀 止賺套現

事實上,今年「空軍」大舉攻擊內銀,更是瞄準可低價接平貨補倉,翻查今年至今內銀沽空數據,單單是 6月份至今,四行沽空共有 150億元,當中以建行及農行最受淡友「捧場」,個半月內平均沽空比率超過一成。
外資大行沽貨套利,情有可原,但作為保管內地居民養老金的社保基金,今年內一口氣減持工行( 1398)及建行,涉及金額接近 100億元,某程度對內銀股信心減弱。八隻內銀股,今年表現令人失望,正正反映社保有先見之明。

暗湧2)地方債黑洞 如無底深潭

地方債規模龐大,成為內銀「計時炸彈」。審計署最近公佈,截至去年底,全國地方政府性債務餘額 10.7萬億元(人民幣.下同),佔去年 GDP的四分之一,超過當年全國財政收入。然而,內地地方債問題透明度極低,實際規模外界難以猜測。

佔內銀貸款 30%

據人行早前透露,地方政府貸款比例佔整體銀行貸款約 30%,相當於 14萬億元;至於銀監會報告則指有關貸款截至去年 11月底,規模 9萬億元,佔銀行整體貸款比例 20%。由於口徑如此不一致,日前評級機構穆迪便發表報告,指審計署少報地方債起碼 3.5萬億元,由於地方債牽連廣泛,一旦出事,形成的系統性風險難以估計,穆迪指內銀信貸前景或被下調至負面。
地方債風險高,隨着地產市場調控加劇,地方的土地財政已經無以為繼。根據資料,目前上市內銀的首 10位貸款人,大部份都屬於地方政府的融資平台公司或者是公共事業公司。例如民生銀行( 1988)的最大客戶「北京市土地整理儲備中心朝陽分中心」,同時是北京銀行以及興業銀行的主要客戶。若果這家土地整理儲備中心賴債,隨時一次過牽連幾間內銀,連環爆煲。
另外,地方政府主導的基建項目沒有考慮經濟效益,近日已經傳出雲南省及陝西省公路企業出事,收入不足還債,各自涉及的債務都近千億元。相信類似事件只是冰山一角。

暗湧3)資本要求苛 招行勢抽水

中銀監於今年 5月,對內銀的資本要求提出新監管標準指導意見,變相為更嚴格的中國版「巴塞爾協定三」;雖然多家大型內銀首季都符合有關要求,但為力挺內地經濟,內銀信貸規模需要維持一定的增長速度,故隨時會掀起新一輪集資潮,當中招行( 3968)最有機會向股東伸手。
中銀監新要求規定,內地系統性銀行的資本充足率需達 11.5%,非系統性銀行的要求為 10.5%,翻查數家大型內銀首季業績,工行、建行、中行、交行( 3288)的資本充足率均超過 11.5%,符合系統性銀行要求,只有農行未達標,僅 11.4%。信行( 998)及招行資本充足率分別為 11.05%及 10.91%,縱達到非系統性銀行的要求,但與系統性銀行的門檻,仍有一段距離。

光銀、廣發行擬招股

雖然內銀首季資本充足率普遍達到當局要求,但與去年底數字比較,卻全線回落,反映資本呈緊張局面;信行早前已正式落實供股計劃,抽水最多 260億元人民幣,業界普遍認為,招行將為下一隻抽水的內銀股。招行行長馬蔚華在早前的股東會已表示,正研究集資的方式,不過未有披露詳情。
另外,光銀及廣發行有望今季上市,巨額集資勢令市場水源更緊張。消息指,光銀 7月底招股,集資約 500億元,而廣發行最快季內上市,集資 312億元,合共籌逾 800億元。兩行上市後,內銀股數目將增至 11家,實在是「花多眼亂」。

暗湧4)高息時代終 投資者唔吼

內銀股今年急跌後,部份預測市賬率及市盈率,分別已跌至 2倍及 10倍之下,工行、中行及建行預測派息率更回升至約 4厘水平。
內銀股東堅持不走,主要是睇中股份享有高息,上市後長揸作為收息之用,惟中央政策改變,往後內銀為符合新的資本標準要求,有機會削減派息比率,這意味內銀高息時代隨時過去,持有內銀,財息兼失。
毫無疑問,社保基金及淡馬錫是追求長線回報的投資者,絕非殺雞取卵短炒之輩,在近零息環境下,為甚麼還要沽出有近 4厘年息的股票?

扣除股息稅 回報低

首先,國家稅務總局已確認香港的個人中資股股東收取 10%股息稅,包括實物股東在內,根據中央證券登記資料,實物股東最多的股份是內銀股。
去年供股時,工行實物股東約有 16.6萬名,持有中行實物股份股東更達 25萬名最多,建行則有 7萬名實物股東。現時連實物股東亦須繳一成股息稅,靠「食息」維本的投資者,或者轉投其他高息股。
本報統計去年 40隻國企成份股派息數據,中行股息率 4.7厘最高,工行及建行分別有 3.8厘及 3.7厘。
九折收息後,息率將降至 4.2厘、 3.4厘及 3.3厘,低過公用股兩電,以及領匯( 823)等房地產投資信託基金逾 4厘息。