The dollar won't perform as expected in 2017

2017 年, 弱美元, 大通脹 ?

finance.yahoo.com

The dollar may not respond favorably to an interest rate hike by the Fed , contrary to expectations by many people on Wall Street, analyst Jim Paulsen told CNBC on Monday.

"Everyone thinks the dollar's going to go higher because the Fed's going to raise rates," Paulsen said on " Squawk Box ." "[There have] been five major rate hikes during recoveries by the Federal Reserve, and every one of them resulted in a lower dollar, not a higher dollar."

Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said the Fed's reason for raising rates will come from inflation expectations, now being reflected in the strength of the 10-year Treasury yields (U.S.: US10Y).

"Inflation is one of the most destructive forces for the U.S. dollar," he said. "I think the Fed's going to raise multiple times next year, but I also think the dollar's going to come down."

With interest rates expected to go up in the United States, many believe demand for the dollar will rise, especially since rates are low and even in negative territory elsewhere.

Despite Paulsen's expectations for the dollar, he said a global uptick in markets reflects a larger, more positive trend.

"We've experienced the first synchronized global stimulus around the globe in the last 18 months," he said, adding that easing practices by central banks are "creating a synchronized bounce" worldwide.

Appearing with Paulsen, Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna said growth predictions for 2017 are looking up, depending on how effective the new administration is at stimulating the economy.

LaVorgna said he could see the growth rate climbing up to 5 percent "if we're able to pull some of these people who are out of the workforce back in and you get strong investment spending."

Despite indicators like consumer confidence and business sentiment data also jumping into positive territory, LaVorgna said the postelection rally may not last long enough to affect 2017 growth in a major way.

He predicted that this year's fourth-quarter growth would be significantly weaker, citing inventory liquidation and a reversal in net export numbers as the primary downward drivers.