2011年11月30日 星期三

Chris Martenson's presentation at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid



講者說, 因為人口澎漲, 所以資源愈來愈少, 而來緊二十年的經濟走勢會不同於過去二十年的走勢 ! 片段尾段講者有說對油價、黃金和白銀的睇法 !

goldsilver.com

GoldMoneyNews
NOVEMBER 29, 2011

n this video Chris Martenson, economic analyst at http://chrismartenson.com and author of 'The Crash Course', explains why he thinks that the coming 20 years are going to look completely unlike the last 20 years. In his presentation he focuses on the so-called three "Es": Economy, Energy and Environment. He argues that at this point in time it is no longer possible to view either one of those topics separately from one another.

Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable.

Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three "E's" for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.

This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining -- the "cheap and easy" oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher.

Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can't grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.

After finishing his presentation Chris Martenson answers questions regarding a rise in efficiency, alternative technologies and oil prices. He also responds to questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources.

7 則留言:

honson 提到...

Thx Lisa 資料....夠晒update...

讚讚讚

Lisa 提到...

回honson,
所以用過去的經濟表現去測股市, 是不適用的啦, 因為好多因素已改變; 見到還有人以為, 股市愈跌愈買, 將來可以回去三、四萬點, 真為佢地擔心遲下連養老金都無咗 !
有人以為外國立立亂, 但中國可以一片光明真可笑 ! 佢真係唔識經濟 !
來緊是環保年, 大家會慳地使唔再浪費, 所以工業想大賺特賺都好難 !

TAXI-DRIVER 提到...

75% of his net worth in PM.... Wa...wa....wa..... :)

Lisa 提到...

回TAXI-DRIVER,
佢金銀大好友 !

Samuel 提到...

Lisa姐,

美國股市1970's經歷了迷失十年,有波幅無漲幅,可作爲未來10年的參照。但從更長區間看,全球經濟不會一直迷失下去,當新技術引發的下一次工業革命(之前兩次我認爲是汽車工業和集成電路,而非互聯網)爆發之時,就是經濟和股市的下一個黃金期。到時候回頭來看,這10年就會成爲股票儲貨的最佳時期。

環顧四周,沒有值得完全信任的資產類別。股市有迷失10年的預期;本地樓市有梁上臺徹底改變高地价政策的政治隱患;内地樓市從租售比看實在無法讓人安心;人民幣能否打贏貨幣戰爭;國内經濟能否避開硬著陸崩潰的前景;國内政治能否化解亦能覆舟的民怨;貴金屬用來作保險但不能提供日常生活的現金流且未來的流動性成疑(如果美國政府再次出手);抗通脹債券永遠追不上真實通脹水平。所以只能盡量分散資產配置。

Lisa 提到...

回Samuel,
人類一定會進步, 而科支會創新, 但除非你有水晶球, 乜公司會留底, 乜公司會消失 ? 依家儲定乜公司股票才會贏 ? 股市又會跌到去乜地步才會回升 ? 16000, 12000, 10000, 還是更低 ?
依家就知當年32000是基金和銀行家吹出來的波波, 所以想短線去返個位是在發夢 ! 明知迷失十年, 為何唔避一避 ?

投資一定要順勢, 所以要跟環境轉動, 而唔係盲目的 !

Samuel 提到...

Lisa姐,

股票從不應該買具體公司,買公司那是巴菲特和彼特林治這樣的牛人做的。而且根據猴子飛鏢原理,沒有巴菲特也會有九菲特的出現。實物複製的指數基金提供了很好的投資手段。

因爲無人知邊度是底,也無人知何處是底,所以才需要保持一定的倉底。如我前述,無一種資產是可以確信在未來2-30年后跑贏其他,所以各買一點才不會total loss。

Follow the trend實在是講易過實踐,因爲群衆往往是在崩潰前的爆發期才確認趨勢。而我並不能假定自己就比普儸大衆更遠見卓識。所以對潛在的趨勢作出一定的部署,但也會投資于自己觀點的對立面做一個對沖。畢竟人這輩子只有一個30年的機會來準備自己退休后的20年,我自己不敢放手去賭。