2010年9月24日 星期五

Gold holds near record high on currency fears

finance.yahoo.com

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold held near record highs on Thursday, eyeing a breach of $1,300 an ounce, while silver flirted with 30-year peaks as the threat of currency devaluation lifted interest in the metals as a safe store of value.

Spot gold was bid at $1,290.10 an ounce at 1412 GMT (10:12 a.m. EDT), against $1,289.60 late in New York on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery slid 70 cents to $1,291.40.

Silver rose to a 2-1/2 year high at $21.21 an ounce -- within a few cents of its highest since 1980 -- and was later bid at $20.96 an ounce against $21.11.

Gold prices were lifted to a record $1,296.10 on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it was open to reintroducing quantitative easing to tackle sluggish U.S. economic growth, knocking the dollar.

The precious metal's rally, which has lifted prices some 3.5 percent so far this month, is showing few signs of running out of steam.

"Once we touch $1,300 it will probably stall there and there will be some profit-taking, but it won't be extensive," said Andrey Krychenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital.

"All the technical indicators are flashing completely overbought, but that doesn't mean anything when you're in an uptrend."

The dollar recovered from lows on Thursday but investors remain wary as speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon start printing more money drove down Treasury yields.

The euro retreated from a five-month high versus the U.S. unit however, stung by worry over Ireland's banking sector.

While the recovery in the U.S. currency is keeping a lid on further gains in gold, the threat of further monetary easing is providing good support to prices.

"Heightened fears of the currency debasement that could result from an expanding Fed balance sheet, the potential for the Bank of England to follow suit, and last week's yen intervention all compound gold's medium-term allure," said UBS analyst Edel Tully in a note.

TECHNICAL PICTURE FIRM

From a technical perspective, gold remains firm after hitting record highs for five consecutive sessions to Wednesday.

"Spot gold has eroded the 2009-2010 resistance line and looks to extend gains to $1,300," said technical analysts at Commerzbank in a weekly report.

"The upper July-to-September channel resistance line also cuts in at $1,300. According to a cycle which we have been following since late 2008, this region should be reached by the first week of October."

High prices curbed some physical buying, however. Indian gold demand remained weak for a second day as prices traded near all-time highs, though dealers said underlying buying was strong on expectations of higher festive demand.

On the supply side of the market, South Africa's Gold Fields (GFIJ.J), the world's fourth-largest gold miner, said it expects attributable gold output for the September quarter to rise 0.9 percent to 906,000 ounces compared with the previous quarter.

It added that it was on track to achieve its annual production guidance of 3.5-3.8 million ounces.

Among other precious metals, silver remained well supported after hitting another 2-1/2 year high overnight in Asia.

The gold-silver ratio -- the number of ounces of silver needed to buy an ounce of gold -- was at 61.25 on Wednesday, having hit its lowest since January in the previous session.

Platinum was at $1,626 an ounce against $1,627.10, while palladium was at $535.50 against $538.25.

(Editing by James Jukwey)

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