Gold has 'unlimited upside' because the Fed is 'confused' on policy: Trader

www.cnbc.com

Gold just posted its longest weekly winning streak since July 2011, but if investors missed out on the recent rally, fear not. One trader says the commodity has "unlimited upside," and investors have the Federal Reserve to thank for it.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" this week, Tom Colvin said that gold will remain in a bull market that will only come to an end "when central banks take their hands out of the cookie jar." The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates in the foreseeable future, despite a blockbuster June employment report on Friday.

"The year-to-date rally in gold has been nothing short of spectacular, benefiting from what we have seen as a 'confused Fed' or a Fed lacking action," the senior vice president of global institutional sales at Ambrosino Brothers explained.

Gold prices have rallied 28 percent in 2016, hitting a two year high earlier this week. Even as the yellow metal has pulled back from those highs in the last two sessions, Colvin expects these dips to arise as buying opportunities for investors.

Gold started the year in a rally "and it hasn't looked back," Colvin said. "While the first six weeks of 2016 were slow to develop, the Fed's inability to secure more rate hikes, or even convince the market they were coming , fueled the rally we are seeing," he added.

This week, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecast that gold was building up a full head of steam that could take it to $1,500 per ounce. Colvin also has bullish expectations for bullion. His near-term target for the precious metal is $1,400, roughly $50 above where it's currently trading. Gold has not been above that level in three years.

"The market can take good news and bad news," Colvin told CNBC. However, "a confused Fed, saying one thing but doing another over and over invites buyers of gold to jump into the pool with both feet and they have."

Furthermore, Colvin says a "top heavy" equity market—the S&P 500 is within a hair of its all-time high—should continue to invite investors to buy gold as a hedge.

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 現時金融市場十分波動，加上政治因素隨時令經濟大幅放緩甚至衰退，令投資者紛紛買入黃金避險，金價上周創出2011年以來最長升浪，市場對金價前景亦十分 睇好，有交易員更預言，由於聯儲局貨幣政策舉旗不定，加上美股處於歷史高位，眾多基金需要買金對沖，金價將「升無止境」！

據外國傳媒報 道，美國著名交易員Tom Colvin預言，金價牛市才剛剛開始，除非全球央行馬上願意收手不再放水，否則金價牛市可謂漫漫長路，尤其是美國非農就業數據雖然理想，但在全球經濟放 緩下，聯儲局在可見將來仍難加息，市場亦沒有人夠膽投機式沽空金價，再加上美股逼近新高，投資者更需要買金對沖股市調整的風險，金價可謂易升難跌。

事實上，金價自2016年以來已累漲了28%，上周更升至2年高位，Colvin表示，之後任何下跌都是買入機會。早前美銀美林亦發表報告指出，現貨金可升至每安士1,500美元。