Phase Transition for the Dow

升升跌跌, 真真假假, 照 Martin Amstrong 說, 跌完就會升, 但就是黃金和股市一齊升 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The first possible target in time coming out of the 2009 low was 2015.75 for the Dow to reach a Phase Transition and then a crash and burn. We stated in 2011 that the market was off to new highs and even Barrons covered that forecast more as a curiosity. We have constantly warned that the Phase Transition was not yet confirmed.

Indeed, the Phase Transition clearly shifted back in 2014 and appeared as we have been warning to be postponed into 2017. The three price targets were 18500. 23000, and the 30000-40000 extreme target. At the beginning of 2015, we warned it did not appear to be likely that the market would exceed 18500 on the Dow and it looked like it would crawl along resistance forming a high in May. So far that has been the pattern.

Now the question which confronts us is how long of a contraction do we see. Such a False Move must take place with a minimum of 2 month to 3 months which suggests an August low. If we see lower lows intraday or September closes lower than August with a new intraday low in the Dow (not NASDAQ), then we may have a different pattern ahead. Nonetheless, if this pattern with an August low holds, then we may be off to the Phase Transition coming out of the hole. This would be confirmed by electing Monthly Bullish generated from an August low.

In terms of price, we should be aware of this pattern development by exceeding 18500. The next hurdle will be 23000. Exceeding that level and we are now into the Phase Transition with the target in the 30000-40000 level with a really disastrous outcome. This would most likely be coupled with gold as all tangible assets rise driven by the shift from public to private.

This is the pattern and the requirements to see that unfold. It is not a forecast and should not be seen as a promotional forecast like gold promoters. If you do not understand this type of analysis, you are not ready for the professional level so go back to your normal viewing channels. This blog is obviously not for you. You belong in the guru follower circuit.

www.armstrongeconomics.com

QUESTION:

A false move? I don’t follow..
If as you say the European money that’s been buying US stocks is now heading back to Europe, who will be the new buyers of US stocks?

ANSWER:

A False Move is an event that must shake the tree and get everyone out of their longs and many then short. It is typically 2 to 3 months in duration. We can see we did NOT get the Phase Transition for 2015.75. Yes we more than doubled from the 2009 low. But that still did not satisfy a Phase Transition. The minimum would have required 23000 by now with the medium target being 30000 and the extreme 40000. You can see here the doubling effect between the last False Move and the 1929 high. Gold rose from $100 in 1976 to $400 by December 1979 and then it doubled in a Phase Transition to $875 by January 21, 1980 in just 8.6 weeks – very short time span. The crawling along our first target at 18500 illustrated this was not the right time for the Phase Transition and this suggested a postponement until 2017 for 2015.75 first had to complete the bubble in bonds (government). This dove-tails nicely with the rise in third party activity for the 2016 election. Keep in mind this can be a break with a split in the Republicans or a successful internal revolution against the corrupt country-club Republicans like Boehner.

Shaking the tree right now does NOT suggest that the Europeans are gone forever. They are just pulling back now impacting the Euro moving counter-trend to most other currencies. The Dow will rise with interest rates and that will attract foreign capital with a rising dollar. For the flip side when we reverse, they will be back but this time we should start to see domestic retail join in as the new buyers. Initially, the rally should begin with short-covering. We simply need to build the forces for a Phase Transition. That requires the bulk of people to call for a crash so they keep trying to sell the rally after this False Move and that helps to fuel the rally contrary to all logic of market pundits.

就係說, 依家是混你地的假跌市, 等大眾沽曬野後就再升一倍, 吸引更多人入市, 才來一個大崩潰, 就係在2017年跌到2020年; 呢樣就跟李居明的預測吻合啦: [今年11月有水到, 世界經濟會轉好一年, 但中國就會有十年好年 !]

所以金價在10月/11月後都會跟股市升 ?(本人有少少混亂了, 所以唔短炒就是啦, 分散投資最安全 !)