油股要見新低啦 !
finance.yahoo.comBy Henning Gloystein and Gavin Maguire
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Investors
are betting on the oil price staying lower for even longer after OPEC's
decision to ditch a formal production ceiling, pushing U.S. crude
futures for delivery nearly 10 years away below $60 a barrel.
This
could possibly harm the ability of U.S. shale producers, among the
casualties of OPEC's strategy of pumping hard to retain market share, to
lock in profitable prices for future deliveries.
U.S. crude futures for
front-month delivery fell below $40 per barrel on Monday after the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries failed last week to
agree on an output target to reduce a bulging oil glut that has cut
prices by over 60 percent since 2014.
In
the run-up to the OPEC decision, oil derivatives showed investors had,
unusually, been willing to pay more to protect against a surprise rally
in the price, than a surprise fall.
That
bet has now been unwound, meaning they are once again expecting a
higher likelihood of further declines than that of a bounce back. The
most popular options contract is one that gives the holder the right to
sell crude oil futures at just $35 a barrel.
"Oil
is going to make lower lows and lower highs for the foreseeable future
and, in terms of market reaction post-OPEC, I'm not surprised, but it
does leave the door open for prices to fall," Gain Capital analyst Fawad
Razaqzada said.
LOSS OF CONFIDENCE
As
recently as late November, U.S. crude for December 2022 delivery and
onward was trading slightly above $60 per barrel, but following the OPEC
meeting, contracts out to December 2024 are below $60, trading data
shows.
"It means that there
is a loss of confidence in the market after OPEC, and people expect low
prices to last longer", said Oystein Berentsen, managing director of
crude oil at Strong Petroleum in Singapore.
"Hence
the back of the curve will be under pressure from producer hedging via
selling the back of the curve to limit loss or lock in a small profit to
reduce risk."
Goldman Sachs
said after the OPEC-meeting that it expected oil prices to remain "lower
for longer," with a risk that oil prices could fall as low as $20 per
barrel.
"The rising
probability that markets may need to adjust through 'operational
stress', when surpluses breach capacity, leaves risks to our forecast as
skewed to the downside in coming months, with cash costs near $20 per
barrel," the bank said.
Bearishness has been brewing in
the derivatives market for some time. Options data shows holdings of
December 2016 put options at $25, $30 and $35 a barrel have risen 41
percent in the last two months and open interest in those three
contracts now equates to nearly 90 million barrels of oil.
"Price levels just aren't high enough for many shale producers to hedge," said Mark Keenan of Societe Generale.
"In
addition, due to the short production timelines associated with many
shale wells because of their steep well depletion rates, there is little
need to hedge five years or more into the future."
(Additional
reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen in Singapore and Amanda Cooper in
London; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and William Hardy)
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