Martin Amstrong 說, 關鍵在下星期, 如果道指上唔到17750, 美股就會下跌 !
可以跌至2017年才轉升勢至2020年 !
同李居明預測不謀而合: 2016-2017 股市無進展 !
www.armstrongeconomics.com全文Yes, the Dow is like the trophy real estate. The Japanese once bought Rockefeller Center. The Chinese today buy the most expensive properties in US real estate whereas the Canadian are the number one buyer insofar as the quantity of properties. In stocks, this is the difference between the Dow compared to S&P500 and the NASDAQ. You can have a high-flying stock on NASDAQ and the Chinese would never buy it because nobody ever heard of the company in mainstream. So the Dow NOT penetrating last year’s low is in line with the difference between international capital flows and domestic. The very first Weekly Bullish Reversal does not come into play until the 17750 zone. This wide gap illustrates who far a market can rally WITHOUT actually change the trend in motion.
We will probably have workshops at this year’s WEC and perhaps do this over a 4 day event in total so the pros are suffering from boredom and can attend only the professional sessions. To me the system is logical and simple. Here is just the Daily Reversals without using them in reverse or merging with TIME. We are still porting this over for the Trader version and testing. Most of the verbiage has been corrected and the last 3 months of work there will be move over to the Preview and Investor sites next week. But here you can see just using the Daily reversals captures the “noise”. If we then turn to the Weekly level, we elected the first four from the May high we were forecasting and that signal a serious correction confirm what the timing models forecast. The Dow fell and stopped at 15370 whereas the previous year’s low was 15340. The Weekly Bearish resides at 15362 and the technical support we reported was 15176.26. We also warned that August had to close below BELOW 15555 to spark a sharp continued decline. We are able to define the lines in the sand. Using the Reversals in the negative you would simply cover shorts at such a level and reenter if these areas are broken. They all held. The Daily Bullish were being elected within 7 days.
Now we approach the 17750 level which is the FIRST Weekly Bullish. So you step out and re-enter a long position if exceeded. This week is a turning point for they are the lowest and the highest bars in the top row of the Array. We have a Panic Cycle coming into play next week and another turning point the week of 03/28 with a Directional Change the week after. So timing is warning we are starting to push the limits. The prudent thing is step out and let the market make the call. We have the time and price. Just let the market tell you. This is where using the reversals in a NEGATIVE manner comes into play.
To grasp the strategy, we start with the yearly level in this Fractal dimension. We see that 2017 is a key target. We also know that reactions are 2 to 3 time units. We also know that the strongest way markets make moves is through a slingshot. So, if we fail to get through resistance and cannot close on a weekly level above 17750, there is nothing to get excited about. We can still flip to the downside and penetrate that low going into 2017 completing a 2 year reaction and then flip to the upside into 2020.
We then turn to the quarterly level. We had a Directional Change for the first quarter of 2016 so a bullish reaction for the first quarter was nothing unusual. Here we have a Quarterly Bullish at 18106. So here we can see that is some distance to cover for the March closing when that comes into play. Assuming we did test that level in the remainder of March, we look to the What-If Models to ask what would the Quarterly Bearish be if we reached that level and failed? That returns 17575. So you can see that the bearish reversals are rising rapidly and that is also warning that we either breakout or breakdown. Since we are running out of time, it is more likely-than-not that we will head lower rather than higher.
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