Global Trade Just Snapped: Container Freight Rates Plummet 70% In 3 Weeks

www.zerohedge.com 全文

"This market is looking like a disaster and the rates are a reflection of that," warns one of the world's largest shipbrokers, but while The Baltic Dry Freight Index gets all the headlines - having collapsed to all-time record lows this week - it is the spefics below that headline that are truly terrifying. At a time of typical seasonal strength for freight and thus global trade around the world, Reuters reports that spot rates for transporting containers from Asia to Northern Europe have crashed a stunning 70% in the last 3 weeks alone. This almost unprecedented divergence from seasonality has only occurred at this scale once before... 2008! "It is looking scary for the market and it doesn’t look like there is going to be any life in the market in the near term."

As Reuters reports,

Shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe plunged by 27.9 percent to $295 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ending on Friday, one source with access to data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index told Reuters.

The drop came after spot freight rates on the world’s busiest route dropped 39.3 percent last week, and the current rates are widely seen as loss-making levels for container shipping companies.

The spot freight rates for transporting containers, carrying anything from flat-screen TVs to sportswear from Asia to Northern Europe, has fallen 70 percent in three weeks.

In the week to Friday, container freight rates fell 22.5 percent from Asia to ports in the Mediterranean, dropped 8.6 percent to ports on the U.S. West Coast and were down 8.0 percent to ports on the U.S. East Coast.

But even more concerning is this collapse is occurring just as the containerized freight industry enters its golden seasonal period...

Of course the clarion calls of the status quo, everything is awesome, optimists is that this has nothing to with demand but is merely due to over-supply of ships...
Supply has indeed surged...

But only thanks to totally manipulated and decoupled-from-reality signals from 'markets' that caused firms to massively mal-invest in building ships for the renaissance of global trade... which never happened...

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 在金融海嘯之後，超低息及貨幣寬鬆造就全球股市榮景，反觀另一經濟風向標之波羅的海乾散貨指數(BDI)卻創下歷史新低，較高峰值暴瀉九成半。BDI委靡 不振有許多成因，但肯定反映了中國製造業萎縮導致大宗商品需求下降，惟投資者亦需反思：股市與BDI的懸殊對比，究竟哪一個更能反映真實經濟情況？

要解釋BDI跌因可列舉多種理由，航運企業眼闊肚窄使運力嚴重過剩，中國經濟下行兼向服務業轉型，美國電子消費產品多靠空運，而製造業亦紛回歸本土，航運業作為舊經濟產業不免受到衝擊，油價下降進一步令成本和運費跟跌。大部分行業都存在周期性，油商和礦商在無利可圖下會減產，航運商面對不景已停止訂購新船， 甚至部分面臨倒閉，中國航運業亦由4變2，2017年新船下水大幅減少，BDI相信並不會無休止下跌。

然而，在L型經濟及通縮陰影籠罩下，航運業將需掙扎求存。航運業由盛轉衰是一面很好的鏡子，告訴投資者不可盲目樂觀。金融海嘯七個年頭，經濟復甦的力度從外貿角度顯見微弱，中國經濟下行成BDI的最大殺手。當BDI和商品價格指數都預示經濟風光背後的另一面，對未來前景需提高警惕。