Real Estate – the Peak is Here

呢度說的是歐美樓市, 沒知亞洲樓市是否有同樣走勢 ?

中港樓市不同之處是中國人多數會買斷物業, 而西方國家多數人會用銀行按揭持有物業, 因為稅制唔同; 西方國家支出利息可以扣稅, 所以好多人唔會供斷物業的 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

I reported we sold my mother’s house in one week. I too follow our model. The bounce in real estate into 2015.75 seems to be unfolding on time. What will make the peak is a rise in taxes. You have Chicago looking to raise taxes by 30%. Even in Texas there are protests starting over tax increases everywhere from Dallas, Austin, to San Antonio.

The bounce in real estate into 2015 that our model projected was the higher end, not the low-end as was the case in 2007. So far everything seems to be on target. The overall long-term decline will be impacted by the reduction in long-term mortgages combined with insane increases in property taxes as government try to stay afloat. The 30 year mortgage was the product of the New Deal. With Fannie declining and volatility in debt rising, the value of property should decline lacking the “leverage” of long-term mortgages. We will see a decline more in line with the decline in prices meeting the available of cash for deals.