文章說, 高盛成日同客對賭, 所以佢預測唔可以盡信 !
所以買實金實銀唔係睇金銀價格短線波動, 而係是一種長線收集, 當是買件珠寶來收藏等價格的升值 !
點解實金實銀是避險資產和安全過日元 ?
而點解股票唔可以唔理買入價長線買入收股息 ?
因為實金實銀還有純材料的價值, 就算報價跌去零, 你手中還有塊金或銀, 但如果股票價值去到零, 你手中可能連一張紙都無, 想用來當柴燒都唔得 ! 呢個就是買股票和買實金實銀的分別 !
www.investopedia.com
By Richard Best
In the opening weeks of 2016, gold has been surging in a manner not
seen for a long time. The week of Feb. 8 saw the biggest one-week gain
in the metal since the 2008 financial crisis. Analysts pointed to
increasing fears over the stock market, the slowing Chinese economy and
the possibility of a rebound in oil prices as the reasons behind the
surge, which pushed the price of gold up over $1,200 an ounce, its
highest level since June 2015. Even The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:
GS), which
had been bearish on gold throughout 2015, turned bullish for a moment,
and then it was bearish just a week later. This latest flip-flop by
Goldman Sachs has many in the investment world rolling their eyes as the
investment firm tries to win on both sides of the market.
The Anatomy of a Goldman Sachs Flip Flop
Ever since gold peaked above $1,800 in 2012, its price trend has been
down with intermittent rallies. Prior to this month’s surge, the last
time gold rallied was last year at this time when it surged briefly to
just below $1,300. Soon after, gold peaked below $1,800 in 2013, Goldman
Sachs turned bearish on the metal and, from a long-term perspective, it
has remained so. But, Goldman Sachs also makes short-term
forecasts
for the direction of gold prices. A short-term forecast is generally
for a period of three to six months, during which the price of gold can
be expected to rise or fall. These short-term forecasts are for the
benefit of gold traders, of which Goldman Sachs is one, who try to
capitalize on price fluctuations.
For example, in January 2015, as gold was rallying, Goldman Sachs
upgraded its forecast to an average price of $1,262 in 2015, with an
expectation that its price would rise in the near term. Shortly after
that, gold prices tumbled. In July, Goldman Sachs issued a
downgrade
indicating that gold prices should fall below $1,000 by the end of the
year. Immediately after that, gold rallied through the middle of
October. After the price of gold started to decline, Goldman Sachs
reiterated its downgrade in November. A month later, the price of gold
began to increase, leading up to the January/February 2016 surge.
On Feb. 10, 2016, in the midst of a torrid surge in gold prices, Goldman
Sachs changed its short-term forecast again, stating, “there’s scope
for the gold price to extend much higher over time.” The next day, gold
prices fell. But, just one week later, Goldman Sachs made an about-face,
telling investors that there is no real basis for the fears (China's
economy, low oil prices, bank risk due to negative interest rates) that
are pushing gold prices up and that the price should recede in the near
term. Gold prices then proceeded to rally following that forecast. That
would seem like a very extraordinary change in thinking in such a short
period of time, but it was nothing compared to April of 2013 when it
changed its forecast four times during the month.
What's Behind the Flip Flops?
It's easy to conclude that Goldman Sachs is not very good at
short-term forecasting. However, many cynics have concluded that the
company knows exactly what it is doing. They will remind you that
Goldman Sachs is an investment bank and a
market maker that very actively trades securities for its own account. The company generates a massive amount of revenue from this trading.
Goldman Sachs also has a very prominent research department that
issues research reports to its clients, providing them with its best
thinking on the direction of the markets. These reports, along with
other communications that include forecasts, are very influential with
the potential to move the price of a security in one direction or
another. It would make sense that Goldman Sachs wants to help its
clients make money in the markets. But, the cynics will remind you that
Goldman Sachs makes money on the trading activity of its clients
regardless of whether they make money.
Alongside that thinking is the more sinister theory that for Goldman
Sachs to make money in its own trading account, its clients have to lose
money. In other words, if Goldman Sachs’ forecasts direct its clients
one way, it can make money by doing the opposite. With the massive
amount of trading it can conduct in any one commodity, it can make
millions on a brief directional shift when it knows investors will move
in a certain way. For example, when it changed its forecast several
times in April 2013, within two weeks after its last forecast that
downgraded gold again, it covered its short position.
Critics have been accusing Goldman Sachs and the other large
investment banks of such shenanigans for a while. In this most recent
flip-flop, it could be a case of the right arm of Goldman Sachs not
knowing what the left arm is doing. It was the
technical analysts
of Goldman Sachs that suddenly turned bullish short-term, and it was
the commodities research analysts who issued the downgrade the very next
week. That could explain the flip-flop, or maybe it could provide the
rationale for it as the Goldman Sachs gold traders take advantage.
What Is a Gold Investor to Do?
If you are an individual investor who likes to trade in gold, you
might consider doing the opposite of whatever Goldman Sachs’ short-term
forecasts tell you to do. However, if you are a long-term investor in
gold, or plan to accumulate gold for the long-term, your best strategy
would be to use the dollar-cost-averaging method of investing.
Regardless of how Goldman Sachs views the direction of gold, it will
always be a volatile investment. The dollar-cost averaging method takes
advantage of price fluctuation to buy more shares (if you are investing
in an exchange-traded fund, or ETF), when the price declines and fewer
shares when the price increases. Over time, if the price of gold
increases, your average cost basis will be lower than the current price.
