www.armstrongeconomics.com
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said
the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I
have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of
the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s
door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the
Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but
forecasting.
Cheers;
B from UK
ANSWER:
Well
put. Stay in mostly cash far away from fixed income. Yes we are
knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a
pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow
that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but
could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to
new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily
closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36.
We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to
push higher.
Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE
such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a
fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high
for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we
press higher after April,then we can see an early rally into June/July.
But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.
The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.
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