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Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing
BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key
carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014
before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly
gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest
close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed
prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result,
global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month
since 2010.
The yen strengthened against all 16 major peers for the second day in
a row, climbing as much as 1.1 percent to 106.91 a dollar, the
strongest level since October 2014. It surged 4.3 percent this week as
the Bank of Japan defied economists’ expectations that stimulus would be
stepped up.
The sliding dollar is proving beneficial for raw materials, helping
lift gold and silver to 15-month highs. Crude oil has jumped 21 percent
this month to more than $46 a barrel in New York. European equities
trimmed their biggest monthly advance since November.
As Bloomberg writes, the dollar’s third straight monthly drop and the
prospects for the Fed moving gradually on interest rates are spurring
the outlook for inflation, with the 10-year U.S. break-even rate at the
highest since July. Reports today on consumer confidence and personal
spending will provide clues on the trajectory of the world’s largest
economy after data on Thursday showed the slowest pace of expansion in
two years.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday
thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an
Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX
200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI
broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was
subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted
its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as
well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY
290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public
holiday.
In Europe, despite the upside in the energy complex today,
sentiment is firmly dampened after the soft close in the US yesterday
and the risk off trading seen overnight. Although Asia saw thin
trade due to the Japanese holiday, the upside seen in both JPY and
precious metals illustrated the uncertainty felt across asset classes,
with this filtering through to Europe.
Equities have traded in the red
throughout the morning, with Euro Stoxx lower by 1.2%, although with the
downside in equities failing to filter through to any significant price
action in fixed income. Bunds are flat on the day and continue to trade
in the tight range between 162.50 and 162.25.
In Fx, it has been a mixed session in FX, but one which again
is to the detriment of the USD as the index is pressed down to fresh 6
month+ lows on the back of another down-leg in USD/JPY. Losses
in London saw 107.00 taken out, but ahead of 106.50, exotic protective
bids are helping contain the sell-off, albeit temporarily so as yet.
EUR/USD has been propelled higher accordingly, having adopted a strong
bid tone in recent sessions. Earlier gains extended through the pre
1.1400 top seen over the ECB press conference last week, and despite
running into strong offers above here, the pullback is contained ahead
of 1.1350, with better than expected Q1 GDP in the Euro zone now aiding
the bid. This has also helped EUR/GBP recover a little, with Cable now
only managing to match the early Feb high at 1.4667 before retracing
back through 1.4600. Bids in the mid 1.4550's supporting for now.
Commodities still recovering amid the backdrop of recent jitters in
equity markets. Oil continues to power north to help maintain USD/CAD
pressure on 1.2500. Strong bids coming in ahead of this but sellers keen
ahead of 1.2550.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday
thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an
Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX
200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI
broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was
subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted
its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as
well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY
290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public
holiday.
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