2017年10月20日 星期五

October 19th – 30 Year Anniversary 1987 Crash

在非常時期, 就算贏咗錢都可以無錢收, 所以資產放在人地記錄度不是真正的安全 !

香港證券保障基金每個證券戶口每人可以賠15萬, 而期貨戶口每人也可以賠15萬 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

COMMENT:

30 years ago today I was sitting in a brokerage firm in New Castle Pennsylvania on a personal computer that had 720 K of RAM and ran at 1 GHz watching the market and sitting looking at the charting. Prices on stocks were running between 15 and 30 minutes late, nobody knew what was going on. All we knew was things were dropping, dropping, dropping and dropping, everyone was confused. It was crazy. The volume was bigger than they’d ever seen before. Therefore, they could not keep up with the bids and the ask.

I was short the market with every penny I owned and I had no idea how well I was doing. We tried calling places to get current prices if you could get through and even if you did they did not have current quotes, it was pure chaos. When the dust cleared at the end of the day the brokerage firm I was with had gone bankrupt and had lost most everybody’s money.

I had bought a ton of OEX puts and the person who owned the firm. Instead of processing them through regular channels, he decided to write against me on his own. He did not have the money to cover them. I was right on the market but wrong about who I placed my bids through. Three days later all the brokers at this firm were laid off, fired or let go… however you want to put it…. the friend who had the PC and the stock charts. I helped him move all the stuff out to his house. The next year he started his own brokerage firm.

The interesting thing is 5 to 10 days before that drop I told everybody we were in for a major crash but nobody wanted to believe me. But it was in the charts and I tried to show them this.

REPLY:

Welcome to the old man in the corner club. You know. The old guy in the trading room who use to say this is just like 1929 when we were kids. Now we talk about 1987 which was 30 years ago. I was giving a WEC that weekend. We just elected a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals. The Arrays called for a low in 2 days. There were no other reversals between 286 and 180.

I remember standing up there trying to find some technical support between 286 and 180. I could not. There was nothing between the two even technically. The audience asked me what would happen? I said look, it sounds nuts, but we should move down 10,000 basis point in two days.

I myself could not believe it. But people paid me for what the computer had to say, not my opinion.

When that happened, it was right on the ECM date. It was absolutely perfect to the T.

Everyone was calling for the 1929 collapse. The model said new highs by 1989. That’s when brokerage houses were begging me to please come and speak to their retail audiences. I agreed and went to Toronto for Midland Daugherty. They filled the place with thousands of people.

Australian brokers and British brokers were all lining up to have me speak to their clients. It was all in their self-interest. They were paying back then $100k to get me to speak to their clients because I only did Institutional. It was an interesting time.

5 則留言:

Unknown 提到...

多謝指教!想知贏錢都冇得收、分分鐘本都冇埋這方面的經驗,可否分享?

Lisa 提到...

我本身無試過, 不過有好多例子, 如87年股災, 好多人沽期指賺大錢, 但證券行破產, 一個仙都收唔返; 還有蘇聨破產, 就連索羅斯都要輸錢, D債無曬 !
Cyprus 財困, 有錢在銀行的人變無錢, 而有債券在手的人都要輸 !

simon740@ymail.com 提到...

想問一個問題! 政府的錢放係邊到?
如果銀行出事, 而政府的錢又係放係銀行, 銀行又係施人機構, 不屬於政府所控制,
咁結果都係根本政府就唔會有錢賠比大眾! 結論是不是正確?

simon740@ymail.com 提到...

當然更包括政府成日講既存款保章制度,因保章金額更高!

Lisa 提到...

有人說,如果全部冧, 保障基金都賠唔起, 所以大家自己要識保障自己 !