www.armstrongeconomics.com
ANSWER:
Thank you. We are all in this together. This is not merely trying to
pick the next trade. This is about surviving what is really unfolding.
To be a hedge fund manager, you have to look at the entire world
compared to a domestic investment manager who operates exclusively in
the domestic market and is oblivious to events externally. I get called
in all the time into various crisis events around the world. They just
need someone who can see the whole rather than has a myopic perspective.
There seem to be few of us in such a position. Friends who have worked
on desks at the banks internationally have just retired. It is not easy
to do this sort of thing. I just have a 40-year track record and in the
middle of a crisis, they really do not want someone who may have created
the greatest quantitative model in history all in theory but has never
actually been in the trenches. You are asking others to stake their
entire career on your theory and you are wrong, they lose their job. So
it gets hectic to say the least during times like this.
The Directional Change came today and yes it was a blast off. We opened in the Dow ABOVE
the previous high which is an extremely bullish technical signal. A
Directional Change can be a turn, but it can also be a launch pad. The
Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often
outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and
then penetrate the previous low.
Now, as to the comment I wrote today which has sparked a lot of emails. I wrote on the Private Blog ” Anyone
who pretends they can forecast this based upon a personal ‘I think’
will be just luck or a fool. I have been an international hedge fund
manager and analyst my whole life and this is the worst I have EVER seen
in 40 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
There is complete political chaos everywhere you turn. This is not
simply supporting or bashing Trump. We are fooling here with the very
foundation of CONFIDENCE in the governmental system.
Now throw into this cauldron the chaos politically in Europe. Stir in
the insanity in Britain, the trade dispute with China, the
Russian stupid sanctions, and what we get is complete chaos.
Normally,
capital flows have been logical. They fled to the USA for World War I
and II. They fled the USA during the Civil War. Capital attempts to move
away from uncertainty. What I mean as to this is the worst I have
personally seen in 40 years is that we have uncertainty absolutely
everywhere globally. There is no safe place for capital to hide. This is
why we have seen a new record high in the Dow.
Add to this, the chaos our computer is showing in interest rates
starting from October onward. On the 10-year yield, we have elected all
four Monthly Bullish Reversals and that confirms a long-term change in
trend which is really obvious at this point. A Quarterly closing above
3.16% and we are off to the races. We are looking at everything starting
to get crazy in sovereign debt issues globally beginning in October.
With the Dow Jones Industrials now making a new high for the year, the
Fed will be looking more comfortable about raising rates to help the
pension fund crisis that is brewing. So pay attention to interest rates
in October!!!!!!!!
This is what the Reversal System was designed for.
To be objective in the midst of total chaos and uncertainty. November is
shaping up as a Panic Cycle in the Euro, not in the share market. In
the Pound, we have a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle in October.
The political risks around the world are just everywhere. This is also
why we scheduled the WEC in November and just after the US elections.
Personally, this is a real challenge. I cannot be everywhere around the
world at the same time. The best we can do is watch the arrays and the
Reversals.
Just let the numbers speak for themselves. I warned that we
had a Double Bullish Reversal in the Dow at 25800. Once that was elected, it has been off and running to new highs.
3 則留言:
人人都避險, 連我JJ都係呀, 只會搶高美元資產.
只是之後, 美元資產真係到加息魔力發功時, 可能會爆得幾溶下.
10月和11月都是動盪月 !
我只留下收息好和穩定果D美股, 希望到埋單時, 我唔洗蝕10-20%啦
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