「加州每個星期都發生規模3級的地震，唯一的差別在於地震發生的地點之上住了多少人！」上述這話源自一位著名地質學家。
外國傳媒報道，美國地質勘探局地質學家瓊斯(Lucy Jones)近日警告，每個人都知道美國洛杉磯一直有地震威脅，這個美國第2大城市處於100塊地質斷層之上，大地震是無可避免會發生的。
她指出，就在10年前，當局最優秀的科學家預估了加州聖安地列斯斷層發生大地震的後果。結果顯示，地震所引發的直接經濟損失將約500億美元(約3,900億港元)，由地震所引發的火災將是直接損失的一倍；在地震發生後的6個月，由水、電、交通中斷所引發的企業業務中斷成本又是直接損失加上火災的一倍。故此，一旦加州發生大地震，估計當地經濟損失會超過2,000億美元(約1.56萬億港元)。
不過，這僅僅是加州本身，其對美國經濟的傷害會擴散。瓊斯解釋，很明顯，若一座建築物倒塌，建築物擁有者將蒙受損失；不太明顯的是，目前的美國建築法規規定，如果建築物受到嚴重破壞而危害生命安全，就必須拆除。故此，不一定是建築物倒塌才蒙受損失。最近發表的一項關於三藩市東部海沃德斷層發生大地震的研究表明，若發生地震，根據目前法規，有高達1/4的建築物將無法使用。如果一座建築物遭受嚴重損壞，餘震使受損建築物倒塌，亦意味着不少人將被禁止進入鄰近的「危樓」。
類似案例已在2011年新西蘭基督城(Christchurch)地震出現，雖然當地沒有現代建築物倒塌及沒有人在該等建築物死亡，但由於受損建築物構成危險，當地的中央商務區(CBD)已關閉5年，最終1,800棟建築物要被拆除。基督城現正恢復過來，因為它為建築物提供幾乎全面的地震保險。不過，目前加州的地震保險覆蓋不足20%建築物。
瓊斯表示，根據過往經驗，若加州發生大地震，對經濟的影響浪潮將會席捲全國，影響期可以是數年至數十年。有人會反駁，加州三藩市地區經濟角色已不復1906年大地震前。不過，目前美國超過40%的進口貨品仍是在洛杉磯海岸卸貨，就算海口設施遭到破壞後果輕微，但鐵路及管道網遭破壞，就會使西岸沒有具有十足卸貨能力的口岸。
她最後說：「我們不知道大地震會否在有生之年發生，但我們能有信心地說一定會出現。由於全球經濟一體化，一定會對全球帶來影響。」
www.zerohedge.com
As we've pointed out many times before, a powerful earthquake hammering California is a geological inevitability. In the coming decades, a magnitude 7.1 or 7.3 earthquake - similar to the deadly quake that rattled central Mexico last year - would almost certainly strike a densely populated part of the state (the San Andreas fault runs through most of California, as the map below shows), potentially leading to tens if not hundreds of thousands of casualties. The local economy would lie in ruins and it would take years to for the area to recover.
With this in mind, it's perhaps no surprise that government agencies, businesses and other organizations in Arizona have recognized the need to prepare. To wit, the Associated Press reports that local organizations are participate in an exercise to practice how the state would respond to a migration of 400,000 people after a catastrophic earthquake in Southern California.
The Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs said participants in the National Mass Care Exercise will learn how to provide food, shelter and medical services in an emergency scenario. Planning for the exercise has been underway for nearly a year, the department said.
Many county, tribal and municipal emergency operations centers will practice taking in thousands of refugees during the exercise, as procedures and staff training are tested.
Aside from the wildfires that have ravaged California, both the northern and southern parts of the state have been hit by a series of smaller quakes in recent months.
However, the earthquake situation in California is actually more dire than most people realize. Although most Californians have experienced a small quake, most have never personally experienced a strong one. For major events, with magnitudes of 7 or greater, California is actually in an earthquake drought.
Multiple segments of the expansive San Andreas Fault system are now sufficiently stressed to produce large and damaging events.
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