2011年2月22日 星期二

Six reasons for you to purchase silver now, despite high prices

www.dnaindia.com

Silver prices have been going up for a while. On Saturday, Silver closed at an all-time high of Rs 48,700. In the last one year, silver has given a return of around 100% in dollar terms and 84% in rupee terms.

Still, it makes sense to buy silver. Here are six good reasons:

1. China has turned net importer
China, the biggest commodity guzzler in the world, is importing silver big time. In fact, in 2005, China exported 100 million ounces of silver (one troy ounce = 31.1 grams). In 2010, five years down the line, the country has turned a net importer, importing 122.6 million ounces, which is around 14% of the global production.

Now, we all know the impact China has on the price of a commodity it takes fancy to. India, the biggest consumer of gold and silver in the world, imported 1,200 tonnes of silver in 2010, up 20% from the previous year. This increase in imports has largely been attributed to increase in the price of gold, thus making gold jewellery very expensive.This has made people in these countries turn to silver jewellery. In fact, as the price of silver keeps going up, more and more people are likely to take fancy to silver jewellery.

2. Supply demand mismatch
This is a very basic point, which is behind every price rise. Silver demand is more than silver supply, and thus the prices have been on a run. The Silver Institute, which tracks silver supply, reports that from 2000 to 2009 (the latest data available), the supply of silver went up to 709.6 million ounces, up from 591 million ounces. This shows an increase of around 2% per year.

Data from the CPM group shows that mine production rose to 741.5 million ounces in 2010 (up around 4% from 2009).
Silver demand in 2009 stood at around 889 million ounces and the difference between supply and demand was largely met out of scrap sales. Given this, nearly 19% of silver demand is being meant out of scrap sale. This is not sustainable.

3. No recycling of silver
One way to increase supply is to recycle silver like gold has been over the years. Silver is largely used as an industrial metal. It is a very good conductor of electricity, the best heat transfer agent and reflector of light, a very good lubricant, catalyst and alloy. But it is used in very small amounts as an industrial metal. Given this, it is not easy to recycle silver.

Also, at its current price, it is not monetarily feasible to recycle silver. Experts are of the view recycling will become monetarily feasible only once the price of silver crosses around $50 per ounce (currently it quotes at around $32-33 per ounce). Given these reasons, increasing sale of silver scrap is not very easy.

4. Not easy to ramp up production
Experts who closely track silver believe the world is running out of silver. The most vociferous of this lot, Adrian Douglas, the proprietor of Market Force Analysis and also a director of GATA (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee), has gone on record to say the world will run out of silver in 2020, and thus become the first element of the periodic table to become extinct.

Theodore Butler, silver analyst, Butler Research, has said in the past that silver inventories have declined from 10 billion ounces (one ounce equals 31.1 grams) in 1940 to 1 billion ounces today. In comparison, gold inventories stand at a total around 5 billion ounces. So, if we were to believe these experts, there is five times more gold on this earth than silver. But does that reflect in the price of these metals? Certainly not.

This decreasing inventory cannot be built up through increase in production. The earth’s crust has around 17 times more silver than gold. Despite this, silver production cannot be ramped up quickly. The primary reason for this is that it is rare to find a pure silver deposit. Hence, nearly two thirds of the silver that is mined comes as a by-product of mining other metals, like copper, zinc and lead. So, increased production of silver in turn depends on the price of the other metals it is co-mined with.

Also, the silver “mine-cycle” is around 10 years, i.e. the time it takes from starting to explore for silver and until the mine finally begins to produce silver. Over the years, the low price of silver has ensured that the mining companies haven’t gotten around to looking for silver.

5. New uses of silver
As mentioned earlier, silver has lots of industrial uses, given that it is the most malleable and ductile metal, after gold. Silver is currently used in electrical applications like conductors, switches, fuses etc. It is also used in photography, and silver alloys are used as cathodes in batteries. Interestingly, the new uses of silver keep growing.

As a recent report from Hinde Capital points out, “As a bactericide, silver is used in water purification and air handling systems. Silver is also a natural biocide and is very effective against bacterial infections such... New products using silver’s biocidal qualities are being developed each year; clothing, bandages, toothbrushes, door-knobs (flu-protection), keyboards, the list goes on growing.”
All this will ensure the demand for silver keeps growing.

6. The investment argument
Investors are gradually realising the potential of silver. This has led to an increased demand for silver coins as well as exchange traded funds worldwide. The US Mint sold more than 6.4 million silver eagles this January —- the highest sales in a single month since the coin was introduced way back in 1986.

Eric Sprott, who runs Canada-based Sprott Hedge Fund and who recently launched a silver fund, made a very interesting point during an interview. His new fund entered the market to buy 1 million ounces of physical silver. The silver wasn’t readily available and it took the fund nearly 10 weeks to acquire the entire lot.

Now, this was the impact of just one fund. Imagine what would happen once a few more silver funds are launched.
In fact, data from the Silver Institute shows that the investment demand for silver went up by a whopping 184% to 136.9 million ounces in the year 2009 (the latest data i.e. available).
Moral of the story: Buy silver.

5 則留言:

投資一丁 提到...

Liza,昨日我睇左一篇文,佢以白銀黃金比分析:

從年初金價約1,050美元,銀價約15美元,那時的金銀比率約70比1,到年尾金價約1,430美元,銀價約31美元,那時的金銀比率約46比1。一年內的變化幅度約百份之三十四(即金銀比率收窄了34%的差距),若按此理論推算下去,明年今日的金銀比率應約為30比1。

其實黃金同白銀係咪真係有呢個比例上既關係?

投資一丁 提到...

呢篇文個分析令我對銀有更深了解﹗多謝Liza分享﹗

Lisa 提到...

一早講咗白銀落後終黃金, 而當初好似是 16比1 !

Kate 提到...

Lisa,
Thanks a lot for all your information provided in your blog. It does help me to step out my first step to buy silver, next step I will follow your information and go to Shenzhen to buy silver as well.
Just read a news and want to share with you and 銀甲蟲們,

美白银期权今日到期 机构加大平仓力度

  美白银期权23日到期,机构加大平仓力度高赛尔研究中心 马文远国际白银连续“三连阳”之后,在机构获利平仓的打压下,出现大幅下跌行情,日K线呈一根大阴线。昨日(22日)白银在亚洲盘冲高后。从日内最高34.31,下跌至32.97,振幅高达1.43美元。

  由于美白银期权合约即将到期,而目前白银已经经历如此大的涨幅之后,看跌期权成为废纸毫无悬念,因此很多机构纷纷选择平仓,银价从高位直接被打压。之前踏空这波行情的投资者,以为这次回调是入场的好机会,于是纷纷介入多单,推升银价轻度反弹。另外,中东边缘政治事件继续升级,在避险买盘的推动下,银价获得支撑。

  美白银期权合约到期日是美国时间23日,即是中国23日晚上或者24日凌晨,预期在期权在没有停止交易前,大型机构会逐步平仓,但不会进一步大规模的打压银价。预计在亚欧盘维持高位震荡,到美洲盘或者明天,机构很可能会加大平仓力度,甚至把所有的多单清仓,届时银价或许会凶猛的破位下跌。

  从相关市场看,伦铜在突破万点关口后,一直保持着多头趋势,但中途也有些不小的回调,目前铜价依然处于回调行情中,预计后市会寻找60日均线支撑;原油在中东地缘政治的推动下,一扭之前的颓态,强势上涨。在这几天的强势上涨中,对贵金属市场起到重要的支撑作用。昨日原油冲高回落,也面临着短期的回调。因此,从伦铜和原油的走势看,也支撑短期白银回调。

  日图上,短期5日均线和10日均线金叉后一种保持多头排列状态,并运行良好。昨日银价大幅回调后,触及5日均线并获得良好的支撑,若后市突破5日均线,银价将会继续下探。月线和季线依然保持多头排列,长期多头趋势非常明显。

  昨日银价刺破布林线的上轨后,今日终于回到布林线轨道之内。上轨与中轨之间形成的上升通道依然保持完好,不过下轨已经不再呈袋状发散,并逐渐向上勾头。故银价很有可能向下回调,寻找布林线中轨的支撑。

  随机指标KDJ三线在80区域上方死叉后,逐步往下发散。而震荡指标RSI虽未在80上方形成死叉,但也逐渐的向下运行。MACD双线在零轴下发金叉后,向上运行良好,但量能也明显减少。从这些指标看,短期内银价有向下回调需求。

  小时图上,银价处于三角整理状态,最终会选择方向突破。就三角整理形态本身分析,属于一种中继整理形态,向上和向下突破的概率各位50%。但结合其他指标和基本面分析,预计其突破方向。从目前看,白银处于短期回调行情,因此向下突破的概率大。

  总之,短期内,在机构加大平仓力度的情况下,银价还会继续下跌。但目前通胀依旧非常严重,长期多头趋势没有发生根本改变。

  注:本信息仅代表专家个人观点仅供参考,据此投资风险自负。

(摘自和讯网 2011-02-23

Lisa 提到...

回 Kate,
多謝妳的貼文, 雖然我睇簡體字睇得好辛苦, get 唔到全文的意思, 只睇到說銀會回吐 ! 買實金實銀的人, 唔同玩期貨的人, 無有怕短暫的回吐, 而是一個買貨的好機會 ! 買實貨的人用[真金白銀], 又唔借貸, 而好少會用全身家入市, 所以不須擔心 ! 唔跟金銀甲蟲規側買貨的人, 後果自負 !