2016年4月12日 星期二

The Catastrophic Mismanagement of the Economy & The Coming Meltdown

www.armstrongeconomics.com

We are finishing up the Pension Crisis – The Next Nightmare, which is a special report outlining the next global meltdown.  Germany’s Federal Finance Minister Schaeuble is now openly blaming Mario Draghi for the electoral success of the AFD in Germany, which is the Alternative for Germany (In German: Alternative für Deutschland, AfD). The AFD is a right-wing populist party which is also the Eurosceptic political party in Germany. The ALF has risen from 0% to nearly 40% in about 2 years.

Additionally, Schaeuble seems to be rumbling that the ECB is creating a huge problem with negative interest rates because if the ECB does not change its monetary policy radically and soon, Germany will be engulfed in its own major Pension Crisis. We may see central banks will be forced to raise rates to now try to bail out pension funds. This has nothing to do with the economic trends.

The Pension Crisis is becoming a real nightmare for federal and state budgets are now dependent upon exceptionally low interest rates while pension funds are going bankrupt. Raising rates to help the pension funds wipes out government budgets. This entire idea of Keynesian Economics that government is capable of managing the economy by raising and lower interest rates is a complete disaster.

These people are incapable of even forecasting the economy as former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers has openly admitted to Bloomberg TV. Those who think they are endowed with magical power to manipulate society have created a complete mess and they are too brain-dead to realize the consequences are devastating. Our computer is extremely bearish on government. The turning point 2015.75 was the PEAK IN GOVERNMENT. Ever since that turning point, we have begun the downhill move destine to collapse into January 2020 (2020.05).
934-ECM 2011 - 2020
Schaeuble, of course, will not accept any blame for screwing up Germany. He must blame someone and he is turning against Draghi. This is to be expected as we move ahead into the 4.3 year declining leg of the Economic Confidence Model. We are likely to see pressure build reaching some beginning of a change in the monetary system as early as 2018.895. What the world will look like the other side of 2020.05 we will deal with at the World Economic Conference after the elections in November.

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