5月有好戲睇 ?
www.armstrongeconomics.com
The distortion in the yield curve is building with tremendous force. There are vast bids for US 90-day T-Bills from around the world and no offers. The shortage in US government paper is now being reported to us from repo desks around the world. There is a MAJOR PANIC in to the dollar as emerging markets come under a financial crisis, in part, instigated by Turkey. The government simply trapped investors and refuses to allow transactions out of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019.
There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt. Spanish banks are especially invested in Turkish debt where they hoped to get the highest yields expecting that the IMF would never let Turkey default. On top of this, banks have been lending to each other to also avoid parking money at the European Central Bank where they would be charged with a negative interest rate.
Currencies from South Africa’s rand to Brazil’s real are witnessing a
spike in their expected volatility, signaling concern they may weaken
the most along with the Turkish lira going into May. The price swings
have evoked sudden deep-rooted fears that there may be an emerging
market crash before the end of the year.
We will update on the private blog in more detail. However, keep in mind that this Inverted Yield Curve is by no means reflecting a US recession. This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome. This is far more than just politics. This is beginning to evolve into a serious liquidity crisis where we may yet see more countries try capital controls to save the day.
巴士的報
新興市場貨幣危機再起，土耳其上演股匯雙殺，里拉匯價香港時間下午進一步下挫，跌近半成，巴西及阿根廷等貨幣匯價拾級而下，跌約3%，金管局於歐洲時段入市承接港元沽盤39.25億元。
土耳其大選前夕，投機者大舉沽空土耳其里拉，央行以夾高息，迎擊借入當地貨幣里拉沽空的炒家，里拉掉期利率突破1000厘，炒家沽土耳其股票套現平里拉的沽空倉位，土耳其股市跌逾5%，餘波震動巴西及阿根廷等新興貨幣。
里拉現跌4.66%，報5.5771，最低曾見5.6198。土耳其總統埃爾多安說：「那些在選舉前沽空里拉的人，我們知道你們所有人的身份」並稱對匯率作誤導的銀行家，將在下周大選後「付出沉重代價」。
亞洲新興貨幣全綫下滑，港滙日前轉強後再受壓，彭博報價系統顯示，港滙近上午約10時30分再觸及7.85弱方保證，跌13點子。
炒家轉向其他新興市場，巴西雷亞爾及阿根廷披索單日急瀉近3%，巴西雷亞爾香港時間午後拾，跌近3.2%。
美元兌阿根廷披索現報43.8891，跌2.93%，最低曾見43.9360。
亞洲貨幣除日圓外，印尼盾現跌0.25%，每美元報14,243印尼盾，最低見14,250；印度盧比則最多跌0.3%，低見69.1138，現報69.0112，跌0.2%。
日圓表現則造好，日圓今日曾升近0.4%，高見110.11。主要由於美國國債10年期債息曾跌至2.35厘，為2017年12月以來最低，令市場對全球經濟增長憂慮加劇，資金流入日圓避險。日圓兌美元現報110,25，升0.24%。每百日圓兌14.048日圓，升0.22%。
金管局歐洲市場時段，承接港元沽盤39.25億元，今早10時33分再觸及7.85弱方兌換保證。港元拆息今日普遍回落，1個月拆息連續3日下跌，報1.67857厘。
We will update on the private blog in more detail. However, keep in mind that this Inverted Yield Curve is by no means reflecting a US recession. This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome. This is far more than just politics. This is beginning to evolve into a serious liquidity crisis where we may yet see more countries try capital controls to save the day.
巴士的報
新興市場貨幣危機再起，土耳其上演股匯雙殺，里拉匯價香港時間下午進一步下挫，跌近半成，巴西及阿根廷等貨幣匯價拾級而下，跌約3%，金管局於歐洲時段入市承接港元沽盤39.25億元。
土耳其大選前夕，投機者大舉沽空土耳其里拉，央行以夾高息，迎擊借入當地貨幣里拉沽空的炒家，里拉掉期利率突破1000厘，炒家沽土耳其股票套現平里拉的沽空倉位，土耳其股市跌逾5%，餘波震動巴西及阿根廷等新興貨幣。
里拉現跌4.66%，報5.5771，最低曾見5.6198。土耳其總統埃爾多安說：「那些在選舉前沽空里拉的人，我們知道你們所有人的身份」並稱對匯率作誤導的銀行家，將在下周大選後「付出沉重代價」。
亞洲新興貨幣全綫下滑，港滙日前轉強後再受壓，彭博報價系統顯示，港滙近上午約10時30分再觸及7.85弱方保證，跌13點子。
炒家轉向其他新興市場，巴西雷亞爾及阿根廷披索單日急瀉近3%，巴西雷亞爾香港時間午後拾，跌近3.2%。
美元兌阿根廷披索現報43.8891，跌2.93%，最低曾見43.9360。
亞洲貨幣除日圓外，印尼盾現跌0.25%，每美元報14,243印尼盾，最低見14,250；印度盧比則最多跌0.3%，低見69.1138，現報69.0112，跌0.2%。
日圓表現則造好，日圓今日曾升近0.4%，高見110.11。主要由於美國國債10年期債息曾跌至2.35厘，為2017年12月以來最低，令市場對全球經濟增長憂慮加劇，資金流入日圓避險。日圓兌美元現報110,25，升0.24%。每百日圓兌14.048日圓，升0.22%。
金管局歐洲市場時段，承接港元沽盤39.25億元，今早10時33分再觸及7.85弱方兌換保證。港元拆息今日普遍回落，1個月拆息連續3日下跌，報1.67857厘。
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