金融High Tea——一個殺人局 油價犧牲了

頭條日報

美股呢排載浮載沉，慢慢回調，整體有小小向下。比較之下，油價呢輪跌勢先至凶狠，點解油價會係咁跌，美國總統特朗普出嚟解開謎團，表明歡迎油價回落，又感謝沙特幫忙降低油價。

　　特朗普對於油價立場，有時都幾矛盾。共和黨係油商之友，加上佢係老派人，自然有傾向支持高油價。但油價高影響選民感覺，壓抑經濟，刺激通脹，亦都不利執政。

　　喺上世紀70年代，油價一升股市就散，白宮亦大為緊張。隨著新經濟興起，傳統製造業角色淡化，股市對油價上升敏感度下降，無論儲局同總統對油價都無咁擔心，令油價一度升至過百美元一桶。

　　現時能源成本對經濟影響，雖然主要體現喺中國等工業生產國，但政客開始關注能源消費對民生影響。美國係汽車國家，又需要燃油取暖，所以對基層來說，能源支出佔生活比重唔細，特別係進入冬天，相關消費大增，特朗普見油價低跳出嚟領功。佢喺社交平台上發文，形容油價下跌就好似係對美國及全球大幅減稅，仲強調油價要進一步下調。呢個說法聽落誇張，但如果知道美國人、特別係特朗普支持者嘅消費模式，就知距離事實不遠。

卡舒吉之死成特朗普籌碼

　　特朗普想討好油商，但想油價低，兩者點平衡？佢絕對唔係傻仔，美國喺換總統後即刻退出巴黎協議，等同美國可以開大引擎燒油，咁油商可「以量補價」。以美國頁岩油生產成本，油價喺50至60元水平，美國頁岩油商已經有錢賺。有咗呢招，特朗普喺有需要時，就可以撳低油價討好選民，撳完慢慢可放。佢喺中期選舉前宣佈放寬對伊朗制裁限制，容許多個國家購買該國石油，咁大嘅政治妥協，說明佢對壓低油價可以「無所不用其極」。

　　伊朗對原油供應有重要作用，市場上另一話事人係油組。美國想推低油價，但油組中嘅大哥沙特就想將國營石油公司上市，咁兩國利益點擺平呢？本來，沙特向美國購買1000億美元武器，對白宮都有討價還價本錢，正當大家爭持，突然有兩個男人走上國際舞台，幫咗特朗普一把。這兩個男人，一個係美國《華盛頓郵報》記者卡舒吉，另一個係沙特皇儲穆罕默德。

　　本身係沙特人嘅卡舒吉，因為尖銳批評沙特政府，成為皇儲嘅眼中釘，月前佢喺沙特駐土耳其大使館俾人有計劃地「生劏」。事件本來以為神不知、鬼不覺，無諗到土耳其政府一早監控，喺國際間爆大鑊，沙特嘅凶殘做法令全世界嘩然，皇儲被指係指使行兇主謀，歐洲政客即刻對沙特劃清界線，特朗普要繼續賣軍火畀沙特，本來好被動，但一向敢作敢為嘅特朗普就打險牌，硬挺沙特皇儲。

　　皇儲本來想推行經濟改革，將國家石油公司沙特阿美上市，但依家火燒眼眉，首先就唔好倒台，特朗普一躍成為佢嘅最大保家，喺美國中期選舉前，恐怕佢都只能用推低油價回報特朗普，結果油價跌開有條路，過完中選仍未止瀉。從呢個角度講，殺害卡舒吉事件曝光，對特朗普來說，由一個危機，變成一個天跌下來的餡餅，但只有佢先有膽識同本事食落肚。

皇儲與特朗普隔空對唱

　　過去一段時間油價大跌，特朗普近日無乜成功劇本，惟有再借壓低油價來賣。同一時間，沙特皇儲穆罕默德就出嚟放話，叫人唔使旨意推佢下台。美國總統同沙特皇儲隔空唱戲，當肢解卡舒吉呢件事無發生過，直情當全世界人透明。卡舒吉嘅死亡成為特朗普推低油價最有力籌碼，令美國消費者有平油可用，亦紓緩美國通脹壓力，希望可以減慢加息。

　　特朗普不斷要搵好料滿足選民，下場戲碼係月底嘅「習特會」。

陸羽仁

www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Marco Carnelos via Middle East Eye,

US President Donald Trump's latest statement on Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder is an extraordinary example of political sincerity - although backed by a completely wrong analysis. 

Trump departed from the usual empty and generic rhetoric made by former American presidents about Saudi Arabia. He made it very clear that the US will condone what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did, i.e ordering the killing of Khashoggi, because the kingdom is containing Iran, purchasing American weapons and is helping to control oil prices in line with American interests.

In other words, when American values, such as defending human rights and the rule of law, collide with American interests, Trump will opt for the latter. In fact, Trump statement confirms indirectly Middle East Eye's report on the US intention to offer a way out to the Saudi crown prince from the Khashoggi quagmire.

A dangerous place

The first sentence of the statement: "The world is a very dangerous place!" is probably the only one that reflects a correct reading of the current international situation. Of course, the president of the United States skips, or does not care about, the fact that his country carries a significant degree of responsibility for this situation.

The support provided - so far - to Saudi Arabia's war on Yemen, the bias shown on the Israeli-Palestinian question, the never-ending war in Afghanistan and before that the US's toxic legacyin Iraq, are just a few examples.

The reasons provided to explain why the 'world is dangerous' follow the usual American position, reductive and oversimplified to say the least: all roads lead to Tehran.

The reference to the Yemen conflict is quite puzzling, as well as the proposed solution: "Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to leave." Even more puzzling is the president's vision about the responsibilities for terrorism.

He considers Iran "the world’s leading sponsor of terror" and then he makes a reference to Saudi kingdom's efforts in this field: "Saudi Arabia has agreed to spend billions of dollars in leading the fight against Radical Islamic Terrorism." Unfortunately, the historical and circumstantial evidence, as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, point in just the opposite direction.

$450bn price tag

Apart from the flawed analysis, Trump’s statement is an extraordinary demonstration of realpolitik. Because the world is a very dangerous place, the United States will continue to support Saudi Arabia, no matter what. But the real purpose of Trump's statement on Saudi last night is actually to fix a price for this support.

The hidden message that the statement was sending to the Saudi royal court is that to save himself the Saudi crown prince will be expected to disburse $450bn in investments.

The astronomical sums discussed during Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia last year and Saudi crown prince’s subsequent visit to the US, that so far had remained at the level of a declaration of intent, have to be transformed into binding contracts very soon.

And in case the message coming from Washington was not clear enough for the Saudis, Trump is even perfidious enough to mention possible initiatives by the US Congress going in different directions, hinting at the possibility of examine them: "I will consider whatever ideas are presented to me." 

Translate: hurry up in drafting and signing the contracts!

Saving bin Salman

Trump is aware that the CIA has probably reached different conclusions on the responsibility of MBS in Khashoggi's murder: "Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the crown prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!"

Certain sectors of the CIA still regret losing the excellent cooperation they had with the former crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and they could complicate Trump’s plan to save the current crown prince.

There is a risk that this affair will also turn into another struggle between the White House and the intelligence agencies as happened with the Russiagate. Trump has questioned the analysis of US intelligence agencies according to which Russian intelligence hacked the Democratic party and voting systems during the US presidential elections in 2016.

To make matters worse, on Wednesday, a bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to Trump, triggering an investigation into Khashoggi's disappearance.

The letter, written by Republican Senators Bob Corker and Lindsey Graham, and Democratic Senators Bob Menendez and Patrick Leahy, called for Trump to investigate Khashoggi's disappearance under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act.

The Magnitsky Act allows the president to impose sanctions on a person or country that has engaged in a human rights violation. "It is a delicate situation when we have a longtime ally that we've had for decades, but we have a crown prince that I believe ordered the killing of a journalist," Corker said in an interview.

In other words, saving Mohammed bin Salman will not be an easy undertaking, especially if further leaks from Turkey on Khashoggi's murder should emerge with the smoking gun trail leading directly to the Saudi crown prince.

Hence, the Khashoggi saga is likely to go on.