Capital Flow Analysis

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The clarify, in the Gulf War the USA was the aggressor and thus the capital flows moved away from the dollar. This was contrary to World War I & II and other Middle East events where the USA was not the aggressor.

In the current situation, provided the USA does not engage an invasion of Iran, then the risk may lie initially more with Europe given that the Iranian cell groups have infiltrated Europe and are already there.

A decline in the dollar appears more likely post-2022.